Horizonte Min. Share Chat (HZM)

I agree, they post regularly on LinkedIn.

For those investors who have a real interest in what Horizonte are doing may I suggest you follow Horizonte Minerals on LinkedIn.
I have found this to be a good source of information in the day to day activities of the company. This far better than the comment made on either their website or social media.
Recently one of the employees posted an airily photo of the site.
Other posts have been about conferences attended. Work in the community.
All in all positive progress.

Comprehensive review of the fundamentals there. Thanks.

Usual response by someone who I suspect got their timing wrong. Rich you seem to place a lot of emphasis on fundamentals of the stock which is not bad when you are in a logical and up trending market not consumed by fear. You forget about the emotional and technical signals of the stock though. HZM price is trending down and technically speaking it has broken through its POC and heading lower.
Fundamentals wise the directors. are still not buying. That should tell you something

You assume I am a shorter which I am not and as usual because you have your timing wrong are looking to rubbish someone who has been saying this for weeks. I feel sorry for you and hope you can recoup your losses at some point. Good luck staying Rich

Thanks for the base case Rich. The issue to have in mind is that value of our pound is going down hill fast. It may soon be a race to get out of cash into stocks again. It looks as if the short positions are getting closed State side as I write. Looks like the wide boys do not like me writing about their $7M short trades in particular ETFs. When you shine the light where its dark, lower forms of life often disappear. Enjoy the weekend everybody Tony

$14,000/t is the feasibility study base case number used Tony.
I wouldn’t waste your time worrying about contrarian…as he was recently telling us he couldn’t afford London prices for a house so I don’t think him shorting this for 20 quid is going to make much difference to the price of fish ;)

Contrarian

The World Bank have been absolutely spot on with nickel prices. They predicted a 28,000 price spike in 2022 and it falling back to 21,000 by 2024 and they were correct on 2020 and 2021 prices. HZM have run their projections below $21,000 /tonne if memory serves me correct.

I believe your bet is mine delivery delays or problems. I was quite impressed with all the planning the company has done. Risks are always present and none of us do not know what we don't know. I will be taking my chances that any problems are immaterial. I can only thank you for delivering discount prices if you are in the short brigade. I will of course be buying lots more.
The delays in the green agenda have been to do with green washing by certain companies and HZM avoided those elephant traps.
Tony

I think so too.

Energy prices will come down as nuclear and green steps up. Oilers enjoying their time in the sun. Countries are already changing behavior to become less fuel hungry, including pushing up inflation.

This new generation will not accept a reversal on green policy, all they have is a mobile phone and time on their side. ESG is a huge problem in energy and is a front of report topic in most resource companies.

That's why I think Horizonte is a cracker, it's not just a Nickel producer but a lower carbon one.

Glencore increasing their holding out of the blue was a big tick for me. After a near 30% drop against the estimates I can see, it's dropped too hard, too quickly.

Dr very clever but I am not your macro guy. The transition has already stalled in my view as governments around the world are scrambling for coal, LNG etc etc. The oilies I invest in are minting it.
Your 2nd point - honestly I don't know neither do I care.

I look at the company and the fact that they carry this risk which is construction risk at the moment and the headwinds they face regarding the deceleration of the green transition plus inflation and see it much lower than they currently are.

HZM were behind the curve with finance and are now paying the price for it.

This is an extract below from a fund I invest that has a lot of solar and wind asset investments. It refers to the UK gov energy strategy. I believe the same to hold true across the world. Governments need to get elected they will not be if they have people living in fuel poverty and having to subsidise green agendas and nickel batteries for your Teslas et al. They will capitulate and not invest in the transition as you call it as heavily as they would have liked.

"High energy prices have led to the failure of a number of retail supply businesses, contributed to a wider cost-of-living crisis and high inflation, and have resulted in increased levels of fuel poverty and reduced industrial competitiveness. Reconciling the objectives of energy security, the decarbonisation agenda, and the cost of energy remain the key challenges at the heart of energy policy. The recent energy strategy did little to provide detail on how these potentially competing priorities will be balanced."

Urgh - don't know why it hid the second bullet on my screen after typing it, so I retyped it, and then it showed up when posting anyway! (So obviously the last two bullets are the same thing before someone says it!)

Whilst this has largely just been trending in line with the market (using Vale as a benchmark large Nickel producer - Vale the orange line): https://www.tradingview.com/x/wbazXRiP/ it's interesting to note a couple of things:
- Vale tends to front-run the price here
and
- Volume on the falls has been pretty puny
and
- The volume has generally been pretty small

May therefore been interesting to keep an eye on miners like Vale. Personally I think the commodities rout is wildly disproportionate the the real world potential fall off in demand. What's been priced on most commodities in is a big demand fall-off but there seems to be little sign of that actually becoming a reality yet. That being the case, pricing in a very negative case means there's a lot of scope for upside if it doesn't come to pass.

Taken a bit more here today as I scale in dribs and drabs. Not often I can say my buy was the lowest priced trade of the day ;)

Contrarian, some questions:
1) Do you think the transition from the carbon based economy to the 'green' economy will stall? If so for how long?
2) If you think it will continue do you think there will remain high demand for nickel, lithium etc? Or do you see a novel technology destroying demand?

The kind of idiots that can predict the market better and make money.

ETF short activity on rare earths, nickel miners and anything that could be linked to green revolution, climate protection or stocks that would become vulnerable if normal relations with Russia resumed are being shorted through the ETF indices. I wonder what idiot is behind that wonderful move to short the pants off metals that are critically needed and in short supply 18 months down the track to create the next wave of inflation. I added at 122p as I planned to do so the other day. Still hold cash war chest. Its painful seeing losing positions, but will now add when the shorts starts closing off.

I find your posts quite boring to be fair.

You only hang around when HZM shares are depressed but your AWOL when the price is rising.

No offence, cheers.

One last piece of tactical advice. We are currently experiencing a bear market rally. I would be looking to take advantage before the bear. resumes. DYOR

Just reflecting on the price of Nickel when the war started. No link to the price at all. Wow.

Ah yes, my superficial mentioning of a massive war with a super nation.

Someone keeps deleting my posts clearly the truth hurts the long termers and the dreamers of this board.

Ant your analysis is so superficial - you think the war is the main contributing factor of the fluctuations of price of Nickel. The convenient excuse. The alternative scares you all long termers I believe and you don't want to hear it as you are all in denial.
It's inflation that will be followed by stagflation. That combined with the inability of central banks to do anything other than destroy demand (with the notable exception of the ECB who are as usual the last ones to raise effectively rates and still thinking of giving candy to the diabetics by buying more bonds), is the reason why HMZ is falling.
The price of Nickel will fall further, Oil has already started its decline other metals will follow.
As I said previously, who will want a shiny new Tesla on finance when even governments are moving back to coal to secure energy supply, finance for cars will be prohibitively expensive ?
Less people.

The company has played its part. Slow in securing finance early, caused them to be behind the curve and then geopolitics happened. I have said this in the past AIM companies are very sensitive to external events. HZM is no different no matter how good a product they have.
Of course the deal was not all that the dreamers were expecting. It does contain some punitive terms which if get triggered...well...

And finally the board even at times like this are not showing any whatsoever regard for the PI. They are not buying shares in fact they haven't for years. This would have shown some confidence but they are not doing it.
Why I wonder ....

Draw down of class 1 nickel from the LME is still relatively modest although there does appear to be a bit of a pick up these past two days. How important that is to Horizonte right now is a moot point but at least inventories are not rising. Uncertain times ahead.

TDT

Nickel has now returned to normal, since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Expecting the slide to significantly slow/stop now. The supply of Nickel IS still impacted by said war.

Recession fears replica of 2008 are exaggerated, Nickel seems to have reached its lowest level.

Apologies *100p (hopefully not a Freudian slip!!)

Infuriating analysis, best case numbers in our presentations have Nickel price $2k lower than today.

There isn't a miner in the world this close to production with the gap in NAV that we have here. Extreme value opportunity.

This talk of 200p is just psychological bull.

Nickel could half in price and we're still miles off NAV.

Market is taking the proverbial.

I have Not read the article below yet. I post it to share without comment or prejudice.

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/can-horizonte-minerals-shares-recover-as-nickel-prices-soar