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Sorry holders, looks like the writing is on the wall now. Hoping you recoup your losses back elsewhere. ATB
Horizonte must now consider alternative options for the Company's subsidiaries in the interest of its secured creditors, which may include raising financing at the subsidiary level, a sale of the Project whilst in care and maintenance, the liquidation of the assets of the Project, or other options available under Brazilian laws. The Company does not believe that any of these options are likely to recover any value for the Company's shareholders
Part of the funding got diverted to Araguaia ($5m I think).
The situation with Vermelho must be - if the topco is not a going concern (have to establish that first) then what's the point of it? Surely the existence of Horizonte (and Araguaia) established first then they can decide whether to throw money at a second project...
To be clear, there is no ban on selling from existing stock at the LME and CME but these stocks will not now be replenished.
The UK and US have announced that all new Nickel, Aluminium and Copper produced by Russia will no longer be traded a the world's largest metal exchanges - The London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Metal Exchange.
....,every little helps.
What’s happened to the release of the feasibility study for Vermelho. It was supposed to be first quarter. A previous RNS spoke of its imminent release which never happened. It will be complete now as funding was ring fenced. Surely failure to release is not acting in the best interests of the company as we would surely get a boost in share price from a positive FS.
Tuan
KRSS is just the latest pumper here, I think the 70p price target gives it away. Clearly anything he posts won't make sense, its not meant to. Just think Lawrence and you will get the idea.
Then they just a different plumber
You need come abck and read all RNSs , it state that they need redesigns as it not working correct. That is why it need 35 % increase cost, How can you hope they making it 6 months faster to save some money? At moment they dont know how new design work or not at all so all risk more it turn out more money need.
Nickel once went through the roof on LME, mainly Geopolitical risk from Russia, even if Sponge Bob wins the White House, Russia will remain and is a challenge. In a step by step approach, Industrialised Countries will stop buying Premium Nickel from Russia, India is not that big consumer and China already tied up Indonesia. On internal front, La Mancha is aligned with shareholders, assets disposal can generate value for shareholders.
A higher nickel price can only help hzm,.
Only a few weeks now for interim funding, which should give us a boost as it means a funding package is on the cards.
NICKEL Price
18,463.02
+684.52
Nickel also looks like Gold. New major investor will be on distinct advantage, only thing existing ones contribute their fair share
Doing a jeremy Cl, I would give the following response.
"I really haven`t got a clue, but here is what I think.
This is now a 2 year project. $600m needed to finish is therefore $300m per year. Both Glencore and LM lost out in another Brazilian operation where they had intended to put another $100m each to get the operation going. Therefore, they have cash. The financial year end has been and gone so why cannot both these Companies now use that $100m each to fund the 1`st of the 2 year requirement. Ensure the banks release their $135m plus, and Orion to dip in with $30m and we have $350 m to take the build programme to almost piloting stage. Commit to ensure that any remaining monetory needs will be met for year two. Tablets of stone agreed by ALL lenders.
Immediately, the shares will rocket.
Speed up the completion date by 6 months and you cut $50m from year 2 requirement. As we enter year 2,and as the shares are now trading at about £! , decide that a share issue will take place at say 80p per share. Glencore, LM and Orion will want to maintain their dominance, so of the 250 m new shares, they will take up 51%. Existing shareholders will be given first option to buy the 120m remaining shares, after which time, the book will be opened to sell on the balance. Any tiny shortfall to be taken up by the big three. The end result is that the mine is finally built and begins production, the above ground asset value is roughly the same as the revised book value. 500m+ shares at 80p and the Company begins to finally pay back the lenders, quicker when line 2 becomes operational. The sp begins to rise again and nobody loses. Everybody is happy, but what do I know? I am only Mr. Clksn"
Wise man our Jeremy. Haha
Not thanks to HZM
Cheese,
There has already been plenty of discussion on why this will remain a PLC. You can read back a on this chat for several months, but to save you a little effort here is the shortest of summaries.
La Mancha the largest shareholder does not deal in private companies. They will not sell their stack here cheaply.
I think you maybe right. With all debt overwhelming the current market cap there seems very little point this remaining a PLC unfortunately.
The figure was taken directly from the Aug 23 presentation with the headline 20k/t.
Slide 11
https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20230829-corporate-presentation-august-2023.pdf
NPV $1.13 is lucrative, it was definitely calculated at 14 or 16k per tonne, not at spot price 20k per tonne. Industrial average and spot are two different things.
Yeah fair enough, and for what is worth no NPV value alters what I was going to say in the event of existing corners being able and willing to put all monies needed for financing.
Unfortunately in this game, equilibrium is really oblivion. There's no incentive leaving a residue market of 10%. Just take all. Else you leave money on the table.
But the scenario demands all corners agreeing to put their fair share of the 600 to keep whatever desired %.
I am betting against that. That they do not want to put 600 to distress.
In all those games where partial subsidy occurs by existing corners, and not total, then we get those 15p-25p dependent on what assumptions you make for what each weak cornerstone can do.
Weak defined: a cornerstone not willing to pay total nominal percentage of current holding, against that 600m.
Now fully out and have a decent Capital gains tax off set. Hope you folks get some luck.
Mv01,
Unfortunately none of us will be able to come up with the new NPV figure, so it’s gut feeling, like the rest of the post. The A1 NVP was $1.13 billion back in Aug 23. With nickel at $20k/t with exchange rate of 1.25 $\£. So £750 million is just a pure approximation that I wouldn’t treat anything other than a guess.
For your second point if you consider repayment of debt part of the OPEX then yes it does change the NPV. Maybe up to $20 million. So in the spirit of gut feeling guess illustration not much.
Currently I wouldn’t defend anything in my post as I haven’t got a clue. 🤪🤪🤪
I’m just trying to present alternatives.
Rover how do you get that 750m NPV?
Has to be a function of opex. So cannot assume the same figure for both an equity raise of 600m v 300m.
NPV must be a variable in distinct scenarios not a constant - No?
There has been plenty of speculation either way of how this will pan out. Deal or no deal! No one will know until that RNS that tells us the future. However, fingered in the air, gut feeling without any scientific evidence I came up with a figure. It’s pure speculation, nonsense etc., etc., etc. If a deal is struck, whatever the deal in monetary terms I think between the cornerstones and new investors they will end up with a maximum of 90% of the company. This leaves the rest of us with 10%. I’ll give a bit of rationale behind this, liquidity. I believe this would be the minimum the cornerstones would want, ideally I’d think they’d want more like 30% to provide a more stable base. (Not too sure with that theory).
So at 10% what does that look like. Currently approximately 300 million shares counting all the hidden ones are accounted for. 50% currently retail, 150 million.
Therefore future shares in issue would be 1.5 billion. 1.2 billion new shares to be issued.
What is the future value of the company just considering A1 with 1.5 billion shares. NPV of £750 million by 1.5 billion shares is 50p.
This is where this all falls down.
If full equity of £600 million raised via 1.2 billion shares, they’d have to invest at 50p a share, absolutely no return whatsoever.
If equity of £300 million raised via 1.2 billion shares, they’d have to invest at 25p a share. Is a 100% gain enough with an upside of A2 and V?
Total funding package so far secured is $700m, equity raise+bond holders+banks, some of credit facility is undrawn. In recent RNS, ctc is increased but how much more they need? Around $250m shareholders funds, anyone interested should pay $250m and take it private. Metals will rise again like nickel and palladium especially