Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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SG2
You say that perched water was always recognised as a risk. Can you find me a quote saying that from any HUR RNS or annual report? The closest I have seen is a 2016 (ish) technical brief that showed their early reservoir models but was effectively dismissed in the CPR. There is no reference to perched water in the CPR.
There are risks on early water production in annual reports but that is covered in the CPR as being caused by a higher OWC and not perched water.
SpruceGoose. Thanks for your thoughts on HUR. Echo's my own. Going to be very interesting for us long term holders to see what is in store for the company.
SG2
" AK, like you, no matter what i'll make sure i retain a vote for next years agm,"
I think you've misunderstood why I've retained just one share, literally! :-)
It's got nowt to do with voting at the AGM ! For a number of years, I'd have liked to attend the AGM's just to meet some people, but they always coincided with truck-racing meetings or stuff like that, so I was forced to prioretise things. And hiring a helicopter was a bit outside my budget.
No, I retain ONE share now for a far more prosaic reason. That being, with a hit of a button on the internet I have 'instant' access to buy again. Not that I'm about to do so now. Earlier (about 24 hrs ago) I responded to someone asking about 'operational risk', and responded, even though it wasn't addressed to me, saying it was a lot less than 18 months ago.
Which I still believe.
But with the BoD changes, macroeconomics, CV19 and the general madness going on, that's why I did my 'big sell'. Prefer cash, right now.
Bought a few of these this morning. Looks like the potential is more for up.
Im surprised that there is still big buys going through and this isn't even nudging the SP in the slightest
SpruceGoose - Howard Hughes. A man I associate with the ilk of Elon Musk. Both visionaries.
The market is punishing HUR for being wrongly footed by Dr T .
Market lost confidence and trust in HUR ability to deliver ,so now the new crews need to deliver the goods with concrete evidence to regain market trust and reverse this low sentiment...
Brilliant geologist but hopeless business man...
I believe the news will land when all is definitely well with proven goods delivery ..
Just imo
Almost every possible pessimistic scenario is currently already priced in the now very much undervalued HUR SP, hence with Brent also gaining positive momentum, potential massive upside here can no longer be easily ignored and even a whiff of positives will have the SP rocket up to new levels IMO.
GLA
WWN, AK,Dalts; generally agree with the thread sypathies of hur being a 'recovery play' rather than the speculative investment 'high-potential' it was early-days. (On Dr T's presented evidence and convictions though, disagree that water 'breakthrough' is the issue - perched has always been on the risk register and, unless RT has been telling outright porkers, is just a realised risk - but perched isn't 'breakthrough' - a term generally used for aquifer, as i understand it. (Pls correct me, anyone, if wrong.) Hur combined and coincided a string of sub-optimal news with a black swan and got to a bod quandary, as i think ADUK has alluded: 'fix' 7z (risky) or drill 8. [With hindsight, LinWar was a parallel development that could have been done without, but given the buyer's strike what option did the co'y have, other than take the risk with a minor player?] Now i get the potential 7z re-entry issues/risks (thx AK) vs 8new, but isn't this a case of repairing investor confidence in the reservoir form (model); i.e. showing that perched IS a parrot that can be knocked off, whereas an 8 well might even (am on last pair of clean pants, here, so hopefully no more 'failures' pls!) 'miss' the big fissures and/or their associated networks? A conundrum indeed........
Hur have still to demonstrate, via the eps, that the Lan reservoir holds the 500m, potential 1bn bbl Dr T reckons it does/might. So it might take another (groan) year (random hypothesis of time taken for sufficient stable results to be built to enable a buyer to purchase field/coy) from now to 'prove' Lancs (?) But what of The Big One, Hal?? There appears to be a good chance LanFax has between 1-2+ bn bbl with a good recoverability, if the PI's are truly indicative. What value Hur then...
Ah, the answer seems to be: 5.8 pps and falling, with pricing based on 6's eps income stream. wtf??? The Bod need to start earning their money. AK, like you, no matter what i'll make sure i retain a vote for next years agm, and hopefully will be able to attend, pox permitting, wherupon i'll make my feelings known - in no uncertain terms - to the bunch of underperforming freeloaders they seem to have been for the last 12 months. [No, i still haven't forgiven the rope fiasco......]
Has the current situation arisen because Dr Trice had made himself the only train-driver & stoker? Would love to see a full 'hearts opened' (not literally, of course) of the hur storyline thus far.
GLA
Typo. Full time CEO not COE
Fred and Showme - I'm likewise at a higher average. Yes Showme, I would like a full time Production COE, not a H+S Compliance specialist. I have aired my opinion of our present incumbent on here before.
A long haul, with all fingers crossed!
The circus starts in a few minutes...
Showmethemonet, I'm like you, very deep underwater. I hope you are right and there's a decent future here for us.
It’s all about the water!
I’m a LTH averaging about 30p. I obviously wouldn’t sell at the moment. It’s a very important time for the company, everything hinges on the next 12/24 months. Production needs to increase, drilling needed to replace 7 and not find any damn perched water. We need a full time CEO and not an interim (It would have been nice if Dr T stayed permanently as a full time time technical adviser).
The company’s back is against the wall but there is hope that we can fight our way out of this. A lot of hard work is needed.
I was pessimistic about a month ago but now optimistic the company can overcome. IMHO what has effectively happened is that we are now delayed by a clear 2 years for the SP to reach £1 - instead of 2022, it will hopefully get there in 2024/25. But we must not hit any more more significant water. If we do then we’re snookered!
A2UK - Hope you see this. Apologies for late reply. Always in bed at 2100 hrs and up at the sparrow’s.
You are correct on private identity. But wrong on the motive. Initially controlling a much, much, bigger amount, he has been a seller over a long period of time. Trickle, trickle. Money always needed for the ‘next deal’! Nothing to do with the recent departure. Both of them got their shares for initial co set-up. The reason for departure, is as I said, as far as I know.
Now -HUR - It’s all about production reliability, debt cover, and, of course, the PoO.
Off topic- Did you ever meet Lee Merrick.?Aspergers. Won €250,000 competition, playing 4card (?)poker in France 10-15 years ago. He, also a pilot, bought a very fast Vans aircraft with the money, and hangered it next to mine. He could count 4 packs. Had a birth-withered right arm. Very clever, but bad communicator.
I not going to scribe here much more, as it’s to no avail. I remain LTH.
WWN,
"So I’d argue in the past the investment was speculative and carried significant risk, whereas now its more a recovery play in the hope the issues can be solved."
I agree with you.
Typically (for those who know me), I'm going to draw a card-playing analogy, but for a change, not poker, but blackjack. Which is a game where one CAN 'beat the house' if one's a 'card-counter', and assuming a per-hand mechanised shuffling-machine isn't being used. Having such knowledge carries its own risks, though, because although it's not 'cheating' as such, if a casino spots one as being a card-counter, it will throw you out, and send your mugshot to other casinos who will be ready to ban you as well.
The thing being, blackjack is the one game where the odds of winning (or risk of losing) are determined by what's happened before. Unlike a game of chance like roulette, where if the ball lands on number 36 on one spin, there's absolutely NO IMPROBABILITY that it'll land on 36 the next time. Pure random chance.
Hurricane 3 years ago... High risk. However, now some of those risks have been eliminated. The risk now is in fact less than back then.
HOWEVER, currently, the chance of a big reward has decreased significantly, as well. And right now we're watching an absolutely stone-cold deck being dealt. I won't even think of thinking about buying back in for the moment, even if there's a hike of 15% in a day. Because 15% of peanuts doesn't make anything like close to a bag of peanuts...
Which is why I feel the 'chartists' (who know jack about the company itself, and its operations) are barking up completely the wrong tree. In fact, I think they're just barking...
daltry,
"there are too many sellers like a client of mine, who, neither BoD, or ii, has over 35 million shares remaining to dispose of."
Hmm. I wonder who that may be. Very interesting. No doubt a number of LTH people here will be able to guess who your client is, though the newbies will be left scratching their heads.
If your client is selling, I have no doubt it's related to Dr T's departure from the BoD.
imo...any one investor calling others idiots are having chip on their shoulders...
Or themselves are better called “The useful idiots” as they more than not get it wrong..
No one based his investment on any share because other companies recovered from their low then it must be applied in every share....what sort of thinking is this to post here....idiotic convictions with self inflated self esteem!
That is really ridiculousness at its best.
A client of yours owns 35 million? That's a load.more than Dr T!!!
Joe Soap
Any punters betting on recovery based on peer performance are idiots.
It's like the guy who didn't understand why open hole well bores in FB do not collapse.
Yeah but no but, Malcy contended that this is not the base case but for risk management purposes, it has to be seriously considered
WWN I think that you may be understating the situation re recovery play.
The oft quoted oilco peers that rebounded have done so from a March low when the market capitulated. Anyco would have shown a similar(ish) recovery.
Here we have a co that have gone down after news after the market collapsed.
Punters are now betting it will recover on the basis its peers did and that, anyway, they are due some good fortune and 20k is possible.
Maybe they are right, maybe HUR's luck has changed: just imagine having to give an AGM presentation and answer questions, not to mention meet the PI, if the AGM were held in 'normal circumstances'.
And yet they were able to just stay shtoom.
jimo
joe
Whatever happened to company broker Morgan Stanley's Bull case NAV of 381p...
For those familiar with risk management terminology, The water breakthrough risk that existed at higher a SP unfortunately became a water breakthrough issue. The company had played it down in their statements and the CPR reinforced the risk was low. Now it is real.
I don’t ever recall an explicit well interference risk, but that too has materialised.
So I’d argue in the past the investment was speculative and carried significant risk, whereas now its more a recovery play in the hope the issues can be solved.
Cont....
And in a way that is why I think the current market valuations are cheap as I believe the current problems that led the sp goes down will lead to sp going up again to its potential highs when these problems are resolved and probably many lth are hoping exactly that...
Alittlened....
“Hasiba,you are illogical,everything that has happened to HUR since was a risk beforehand”
If what you are saying is logical then you are saying the market valuations then were illogical too!!
Which was near 10x than the current one...
The current market valuation is so low because of the risks which were not there when the SP was hoovering at 60p....
The lth were not fools but the unexpected happened that they didn’t account for...
Hasiba,you are illogical,everything that has happened to HUR since was a risk beforehand