Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I may buy a few more shares tomorrow, not because of head and shoulders or cups and saucers. It will be because the PETRONORDIC is leaving Rotterdam after depositing another substantial sum of Dollars into Hurricanes bank.
“The risks maybe the same however the chances of share price recovery to last years high are a lot slimmer .”
Well..let’s hope the sp recovery to their high so everyone is a winner....
Ongoing risks are the same now but they invested in a different company last year with no problems...but we are investing with a new version company laden with . problems ...
It is the full context of my post rather than take bit of it and conclude accordingly...
I don’t agree...they were less risky THEN than us NOW.....though we are both in the same boat now.
The risks maybe the same however the chances of share price recovery to last years high are a lot slimmer .
hasiba
"but we really still taking bigger risks than the old lth as we are investing in troubled laden company"
You are taking neither more or less risk than long term holders currently sitting on a paper loss.
We are where we are and everyone invested in this share has to decide if they content to remain invested. The ongoing risk is the same for everybody.
I sympathise with people who bought high last year or stayed put then as the future investment growth and RNSs were reinforcing that all going well with increasing oil production and revenues and the company is sitting on massive rich assets..
People who bought low recently at low sp including myself ..let’s say for now we are luckier but we really still taking bigger risks than the old lth as we are investing in troubled laden company but they at the time didn’t...
So please let’s be fair to each other .
GL holders
Good point , but then again , I wouldn't have bought 200,000 shares at last years SP...
I got mine at 5.8p...
can someone find differences and similarities between 2019 year and this 2020 year
2019
REVENUE $170m
PROFIT AFTER TAX $59m
AVERAGE SALES PRICE REALISED $59.3/bbl
AVERAGE CASH PRODUCTION COST $21.8/bbl
AVERAGE PRODUCTION RATE 12,900 bopd
OPERATING CASH FLOW $112m
share price was 49p then 56p and year ended 33p.
This year
REVENUE $
PROFIT AFTER TAX $
AVERAGE SALES PRICE REALISED $?
AVERAGE CASH PRODUCTION COST $ ? /bbl
AVERAGE PRODUCTION RATE 14.000-14.500 ? at the moment if we count to date now as it was 18.000 for 5 months
OPERATING CASH FLOW $ ?
booky
"I'm an accountant and not an oil expert."
Me too. But the issues are pretty clear. The wells have not performed well ; the great question atm is can they or cant they increase production, from one or both, to at least the planned 20k bpd. And will water continue to cause further questions?
The mention in last RNS of the BoD modelling a higher OWC slooked some, as it would have imolications for resrves size, as well as water breakthrough.
It really is dyor.
Fwiw, my view is that the most likely scenario is that well problems will continue but eventually the resrvoir will come good. But you don't need me to point out that the risk of it all going wrong is much more apparent than it was a couple of years ago. And we are a one trisk pony, essentially.
Company shut down #z7 well to improve well #6 as they believe well #7z have some connections between each other this is unknown factor .. Last news was they improved #6 output to something 12.000-13.000 and i would like to believe if there was interaction between #6 and #7z water cut decrerased from 7% to slightly less.. could be 4-5%
April news: (https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/application/files/3115/8793/6156/20200427_-_HUR_RNS_-_CMD_vF.pdf)
I do believe if #6 get any really big troubles ,as they mentioned its possible to happen.,company will decide to re-open again #7z just to keep producing at least 5.000 units per day which is life saver zone ...
i dont believe company will try to risk and research other options,its to complicated situation now. as they mentioned,now all they do is working with what they got and with minimum rising issues
I do believe its already worst SP ,there is no where to go less, the main factor what we need to watch is who and how much want company money..and WHEN! thats it.
I do believe oil price will go down in current situation..would say to $32-35 is optimal number for it,too many countries in lockdown,flights are non in air..rubber or other chemical factories works on minimal demand.. who needs that oil now?
i am owner of 100.000 shares ,luckily i have invested at 6.66 p :) would say i am in different boat than most of you guys
Lets see
All of us on here that are averaging 40p ,like myself, have held on too long never believing it would keep going down and down past 35 then 30 then 35 etc. It was probably mistaken belief and loyalty that kept us thinking it can’t go lower - it has to start recovering. The annoying thing now with this board are the characters that think a good day is going from 5.9 to 6.1 and reading the tea leaves - sorry Swazers charts - to see where it goes next. In essence it’s going nowhere until positive news is forthcoming and that ain’t anytime soon.
Genghis\Daltry,
thanks for your input. I recognise you both as LT contributors to the BB.
I have read the RNSs as they come through and fully aware of the production issues and water cut which according to RT on the last presentation this is supposed to not be an issue as time goes by. The thing is, I'm an accountant and not an oil expert. Understanding the potential upside is clear, understanding the downside is not so clear.
if WC gets worse then is there a possibility that production stops and new entry points sought?
Read the last few RNSs.
Agree somewhat with daltry, but otherwise there are too many quick buck merchants on here atm giving false advice. A look through 2020 RNSs will tell you what you need, if you're a LT holder you will have background already.
In a nutshell, it's about well performance, including water cut, and the implications for production and reserves.
Bookyjam,
Hi. The operational risk is what this SP is all about at the moment. Covid, and all the other factors are in the price already, like it or not.
The SP relies on being able to produce oil commercially for HUR. This production, if successful, and commercial(PoO Being the factor here), will enable to repay HUR’s debt, or enable that debt to be renegotiated. There is not going to be any big jump in the SP, as there are too many sellers like a client of mine, who, neither BoD, or ii, has over 35 million shares remaining to dispose of. Then, there is Dr. RT ,who could well wish to reduce his 25 million shares. We still don’t know why he left, and I’m not speculating why. Then there are several people - like myself - who wish to reduce their holdings (hopefully at cost)to de-risk. The idea of 200p+ is now a pipe dream, especially looking at the enthusiasm for fossil fuels., alternatives, demand.
So, the PoO, and smooth, profitable production are my main concerns. I own 285,000 shares at 40+ average. Under water, as they say. I have held for too long like many. I am staying until I can de- risk.
Water cut relates to 1 of the 2 wells, we have production from a single well at 12K, which will be increased. Water cut has never been an issue at the producing well.
bookyjam, 14/08 post. Good questions to experts, who should have answered your question but many here know nothing logical about it but just to post negative rubbish, as they are either paid posters or trying to get in cheaply or perhaps they are down bet gamblers. I HOPE SOME BODY WHO IS IN KNOWLEDGE ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION, WHICH WILL BE INTERESTING INFO. I am also averaging down and I will continue unless disaster info., is given in RNS.
Dear experts oilers,
I am a LTH of HUR with my holdings in both SIPP and ISA averaging in the 30s. Not a trader just topped up to average down which I learn is not always the best strategy. Nevertheless, I believed the story but now I am not sure.
will this all fall implode or explode?
to help me answer this question can I ask the experts on this BB what are the major operational risks facing HUR. is it the water cut issues, OWC, the existing operational well risk of being shutdown, the ringing back on line the other well recently shutdown????
I can assess the financial risks with PoO, Bond repayment, Capex etc but I have no clue with regards to operational risk.
For now I am 50/50 as to hold tight to hear the next operational update and strategy play or take the considerable loss and move on.
cheers