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What, takeover at 11p! If they manage 200k oz then it's north of 60p
I am more relaxed about my investment after that. It's my biggest holding, extremely risky I know, but there is potentially huge upside. Even if a takeover offer does come in, you're looking at a minimum of 11-12p IMO.
I think really importantly too and i've heard this many many times either from them direct or in this presentation Coris are being genuinely supportive. That's absolutely key here and should give us enough time to just get that bit further and crack on.
Dugbe is a monster and gets me very excited if we can survive long enough to see it !
Hedges restructured so that HUM can benefit more from the price of gold and alleviate any pressures with Kor production.
No debt covenants or restrictions to worry about with Coris. Kouroussa is virtually ready to potentially become 'a cash machine' in the words of the CEO.
I am more confident following the investor presentation. The asset value of Dugbe is huge and they have barely scratched the surface of that acreage.
It would have been nice to get some more detailed financial impacts, but a good explanation of the recording of the corica invoices was given.
It has been a squeeze , but they are coming through it. That was my take on the presentation.
HarChris - are you being deliberately obtuse?
The rising gold price in Q1 has yet to be reflected in Hummingbird's sales, mostly due to the company having to meet hedging arrangements with a reduced quarterly output. This left very little gold sold exposed to the prevailing gold price during the quarter. As the announcement makes clear the company have rearranged their hedging obligations so the price received will be improved on the last quarter. In an ideal world hedging wouldn't be a lender requirement nor taking on debts to build the mine in the first place but we are where we are...
Output is predicted to grow at both mines with the potential for Kouroussa to increase substantially once there is some form of resolution in place. In the meantime they are operating with third party contractors who may end up being more expensive in the short term but are going to get the company to where it needs to be. Nothing is certain of course and much depends on how quickly ETASI can achieve what Corica could not.
Harchris .. if it was my only investment I might be a little worried and not have any grounds to call you out.
Well done on SRB though but pretty sure you was ramping it at 90p before it went down to 20p.. Good shout on BMN too, that's only a 99% loss over there to name but a few
I was thinking of asking something similar. A long time ago now ( 18 months or so i think ) DB said there was a strategic review of Dugbe underway but we've not heard anything about why that did or didn't lead to anything. And yes i agree it is worth a huge amount of money atm.
I doubt you'll get a straight answer on the matter because we don't ever get straight answers to questions raised on the calls but im going to submit a similar question as well as one about the cash burn.
Good post Guvvi,
I'm registered to attend this afternoon and I have posed several questions to HUM. One is the effects on AISC/Costs getting the additional contractors in at Kouroussa and whether they have put any monies aside for this and the relevant impact on cashflow.
One thing that I like a lot, which has not been spoken about much is Dugbe. One of the largest potential gold mines in Western Africa, and Pasofino have been moving it along. It alone is worth more than the whole HUM Mcap in my opinion.
Hopefully they can keep making steady progress.
All the best
Now run the numbers with Hum paying it’s outstanding invoices occurring during this period….
You see the problem, time for some equity dilution, new management and start again.
So...
q4 2023
0.2m dollars adjusted ebitda and net bank of 134m dollars including gold.
q1 2024
7.1m dollars adjusted ebitda with net bank 135m dollars including gold. Between q4 2023 and these figures though around 25m dollars of the placing has been used to ' strengthen the balance sheet '. Given that the burn is probably worse at the start of the quarter than the end given their improvements i'd very roughly estimate that the cash burn monthly is less than 1/3 of the part of the ebitda that was cashflow and the 25m from the raise. So maybe it's 5m cash burn per month and getting better all the time? Hard to say and i'd welcome any other constructive views from people on this. If it is getting better though and Coris are understanding, gold is flying and Yan q2 should be better as planned and Kouroussa gets better too then this could very well be the beginning of a non-dilutive period where we get back on track bit by bit.
Kou grade mined of 1.97g/t is now higher than Yan grade 1.6g/t. All they have to do is increase the volume mined at that grade and Kou production would be higher than Yan which was the plan from the beginning. Bonus is any increase in Kou production can be sold at the much higher 2300+ gold price.
100% up on SRB, 15% up on THX since I started investing in goldies - I don't think that's so bad. How much are you up on HUM?
Harchris, you seem to be on the wrong side of everything you follow and disastrously so too. Are you not bored yet but being wrong all the time?
Better than I expected. Mill feed at Kou now just under 2g/t and rising so production should increase markedly as long as they keep digging up the ore.
That can't be right, surely? A $28.1m placing and a highly supportive gold environment and yet net debt (inc gold inventory) has increased from $119.3m to $135.1m in 9 months? And cash back at $5.4m / $9.1m if inventory can be sold?
Another fundraise due to all the operational issues it would seem.
Only 5m cash left, how on earth was they going to pay the contractor of cash was not an issue with the dispute
It's alright guys, we can disagree. That's what makes the market and the shares are up this morning. Clearly the market agree with you. I can't think why because I think this is going under!
They paid Corica to the level of performance - definition in the contract.
Playboy- just ease up on talking this one down.....company done a good job without anyones help
Nearly in May and the contractor issue still not resolved
I am glad that things at are hummingbird are not a disaster , but they are not great that we expected them to be.
Could anyone explain what happen to the money raised this quarter, as their cash in the bank was only 5 m + and
their net debt came down only a bit?
Debt was repaid and they are out of money. So they couldn't pay Corica. Raise or administration incoming. What an absolute dog. The jam ahead this time is "we just did a blast and are at the high grade, honest". Glad I am out of this one.
The debt repayments are the big issue now. Everything else seems to be moving forward, slowly. Was it $70m due this year? Should get pushed back but would have been nice to have some sort of update on this.
Same it's not on the list at all yet. keep trying!
Investormeet today - doesn't work for me?
Wish we had a proper cashflow but q1 ebitda 7.1m dollars, 9m dollars debt repair but 6.3m dollars debt drawn down. Kouroussa should get better little by little now even if Corica dont come back to work. I am surprised and whilst the debt might need to get put back or reworked slightly this looks promising.