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Wyn, I even gave you a tick! ;0))
"PS: Interesting today, any overbought chart indicators meant diddly squat. ;0)"
Thats all right ST, I feel exactly the same about fundamental analysis! ;0)
Dear Deepbluediver,
Just to say again a big thank you for the detailed notes you sent me. I shared the with a friend who is interested too. We will do our homework now.
I wish you good luck and all the best.
ST
Trek, I am trying to forget BPC! ;0)
Ok, I see; I thought I knew something around 3.5 % to disclose, but it is 3%. Great.
I suspect it would also be the case if one party buy on behalf of various holders, the 3% still applies? Hmmm
Thanks fo the time to explain it.
ST
PS: Interesting today, any overbought chart indicators meant diddly squat. ;0)
Hi ST,
The DTR5 is for disclosure over 3% next working day or 5% within 5 working days for uk and non uk holders respectively. Thereafter each full 1% of crossing.
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/
So I doubt it’s one buyer as they would have had to notice by now. Some don’t play by the rules though! Like Acacia whom I reported twice!
Given the risk/rewards here I would expect lots of buyers at several million holdings.
The trade volumes are high but lots of ‘small’ trades do indicate order filling, balancing across books.
+20p finish today heading into news bodes very well.
Remember BPC +200m mcap prior to spud! And no where near the ops or financial diligence of these guys!
+34p when we start drilling is not out of the question. Just a few weeks to wait!
Usual caveats
Trek
Correction: 220 million shares
Trek,
Could we say, the buyer of 100 million share (who wanted actually 240 million) is may still buying the background, so since they haven't stopped buying they don't need to issue an RNS?
Or, if a certain threshold has been reached an RNS must be issued?
Cheers..
ST
Guys,
Just skipped through the BB re the sell. It’s not all a sell a percentage is re-calibrated from the dilution.
Box 2 on the TR1 has an ‘x’
“An event changing the breakdown of voting rights”
They previously held 4.26% and have sold 4,291,300 leaving them 2.83%. Not surprising given the rise.
However, imo one has to look at the bigger picture. Firstly the SP has risen with institutional selling, managing risk. Oberon also reduced. Both still hold a number of shares. For sure they may still be reducing but they haven’t ‘dumped’ their holdings. There are plenty of new buyers.
Furthermore, look at the lock-in arrangements. 18.76% (pre dilution) locked in BEYOND the drilling. That is a massive endorsement!
Section 20 page 42
20. LOCK-IN AND ORDERLY MARKET ARRANGEMENTS
Immediately following Admission, the Locked-in Shareholders, being the Directors, Proposed Director and PDMR’s, will be interested in an aggregate of 17,574,318 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 3.52 per cent. of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital of the Company. The Locked-in Shareholders have entered into lock-in agreements pursuant to which (subject to certain limited exceptions) they have undertaken not to dispose of any interest they hold in Ordinary Shares for 12 months following Admission (save in certain limited circumstances) and thereafter, for a further period of 12 months, only to effect disposals of their Ordinary Shares through Peterhouse or Pello (or the brokers for the time being of the Company) to assist in the maintenance of an orderly market in the Ordinary Shares.
In addition, certain Shareholders holding a total of 93,209,582 Ordinary Shares representing approximately 18.76 per cent. of the Enlarged Issued Share Capital of the Company have entered into orderly market arrangements with the Company, Beaumont Cornish, Peterhouse and Pello whereby they have agreed only to effect disposals of their Ordinary Shares through Peterhouse or Pello (or the brokers for the time being of the Company) for a period of 12 months from Admission to assist in the maintenance of an orderly market in the Ordinary Shares.
A summary of the principal terms of such agreements is set out in paragraph 13.8 of Part VI of this document.
http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/259989-Project-Apollo-CLN-reduced-memory-Final-13.11.20.pdf
Trek
Wyn, on this point "I do take the point that RNS's have the potential to re-calibrate chart interpretations", I can only say this to you from one of my favourite quotes:
You've got to ask yourself One Question: 'Do I Feel Lucky? ' Well, Do Ya? Helium1, the most powerful share in the world, and would "blow" your charts clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya"?
Deepbluediver,
So many thanks for sharing your notes with me (apologies to the BB for asking Deepbluediver to indulge me here on another share, last time). I do appreciate it greatly. ;0)
ST
My 2 pfennig worth.
I use charts for projecting potential floors and ceilings if the stock is moving in a fairly predictable way like HE1 is.
Fundamentals, I see as the data from accounts. I use this to calculate the EPS and P/E to get an idea of how much movement may be possible before becoming volatile.
RNS' etc I always read, but these are action points where the chart cannot predict and you rely on knowledge of what is happening and why. Scirocco sold 30% 2 days before the price jumped and may have continued selling. The market ate that up so not a concern for me. I believe they also have options so they can still profit if we make it big.
The SP right now is back in the middle of the weekly trend. It might not get past 20p which the trend moves past at lunchtime on the 3rd. It may depend on whether we need to wait for the Environmental report or whatever is still outstanding before moving forward with the drill. The monthly channel moves past 20 by the 11th, so i'm fairly certain we'll be over 20p when drilling is announced. Weekly trend has SP at 26p by then.
Wyn, yes, I agree, lots in the "other" share was factored in, in fact most stocks on AIM are factoring in future events in its present price, not the case of HE1 as if we did, by God, we would be close to 100p now, and that is before the drill bit does its touch down (folk did the maths and £38 Billion on full score would place our share price mega high from here).
On the other share I guess we have to wait but I suppose there there is alot at stake and people have waited for a year now and many are very stressed. But think of TESLA for instance, RE is off the scale last time I checked and they will go up still, like Bitcoin or others. Please, I am not comparing HE1 with Tesla, but folk will keep Tesla up like they will Bitcoin because they believe it, which there goes against fundamentals. But think of this, all it takes is Ellon to send a rocket to the moon and do a transaction from there with Bitcoin and tell em where both share prices will go to? Crazy, no?
Here, we all have expectations of HE1, based on fundamental, that they will find the Helium, and should we hit it in the first well, can you tell me where the share price will be? I don't think so. ;0)
Mr ST, happy to. sorry my notes below is a bit here and there, a bit in a rush today at home.
- Lets start with objective. Like He1 investment, I am looking for a min 3-4x multiple on exit within 12 - 36 months of investing. He1 obviously is unique here.
- AA had a good track record at Rockrose (RR) although I personally don't think RR as a company was any good, but the return to shareholder were amazing (multiples were good).
- AA following sale of RR to Viaro made a ton of cash, and this time round, he opened his wallet, with enough skin in the game for me to be comfortable to invest along him. He didn't with RR, so you see where i am going with this (for E&P play).
- I bought in early days of IPO, at risk, as the company was an investment co, not a trading co. I parked sufficient cash early which allows me to add and dilute later, or exit with minimal losses for whatever reasons. call it a best guess punt.
- Kistos is about to move from investment co to a trading (in the next 2-3 weeks I think) following their recent acquisition of Tulip Oil assets. This is key.
- Recent capital raise were oversubscribed, Institution and PI (via PrimaryBid) got 40% of ask.
- Completion for the acquisition is yet to happen, awaiting formal approval. but these are formalities.
- RR's asset are dogs in my view.
- I like the Tulip deal and asset, pay fair value for production (with upside) and large 2C for rapid development to get the multiples, taking them from 5500 gross boepd to around 15 / 16k gross. The deal is paid via recent equity raise (although they had equity already** i will come back on this point) and the rest through bonds. Saying that, coupon seems a bit high but checking with friends in the city, apparently its not bad and its me who has lost touch a bit. therefore he has plenty of FCF as the coupon payment is easily manageable. 5 years horizon to then refinance or settle. Unlike RBLs, he has a lot of room to manoeuvre.
- with equity intact, I expect AA to run several parallel M&As so i expect 2 further deals to be announced by Xmas this year.
- *** the fact they have the original equity intact + further equity from capital adjustment on the Tulip deal from economic date to completion + FCF that comes with the asset , this tells me he is already gearing up for the second deal, and a 3rd.
- the current sp hasn't yet fully factored in the Tulip acquisition as its not yet approved. hence why I bought further chunks recently.
- fair value post Tulip likely around 230-310p (i will revert back once I finalise my DCF model).
- Q10 field has the lowest carbon footprint (of any development I know of), therefore he has the city behind him and therefore I expect some premium.
- by year end, I expect 2 further deals to be announced, 1 in July and 1 towards year end.
- https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/04/core-finance-ceo-interview-andrew-austin-kistos-energy/
- My target sp by Xmas is £5.
Please please DYOR
ST, obviously read this when you have time, but using AVCT as an example, the last RNS showing the CV, which was the long awaited "golden ticket" did not blow the SP out of the water as it was already priced in.
(I do take the point that RNS's have the potential to re-calibrate chart interpretations,(Ha ha, that one way of putting it, don't you think?) but no system is full proof obviously including FA, and also charts/TA are not predicting the future, none of us can do that, but simply predicting whats most likely to happen. Its just an odds game. :0)
Sorry..just quickly:
"What methodology suggests to you when some "consolidation "is likely"?
As you yourself did mention, consolidation does happen and noting climbs in straight lines (don't get me wrong I do use charts to plot) but the fundamentals ( just like any externalities) will blow your charts away in a giffy. ie. an out of the blue RNS satting they have some of the work (currently being carried out) an they now think the field is bigger than originally thought; what do you think it will do to carefully observed chart? Hmmm?
laters..got to run..
ST
Spacetomatoe - Don't forget the drilling company are supplying an appraisal grade drilling unit at no extra cost to HE1 and are taking some of the wells as pure equity.
wyndrum,
Sorry, but will reply later as in the middle of work at the moment. But a quick snapshot is, when I read an RNS that says a big holder has just finished selling half of their holding because they need the money somewhere else (I say finished as the RNS says they finished selling) I think...hmmm..thats is why we stopped climbing.
Another point is that, I like many investors here have bought the shares not because of charts, but because they:
1 - understand what has been said in their research and reports on the HE1
2 - understand a thing or two of geology and read the thesys on the Helium..yeah.. I know it is a thesys
3 - Bought the Co because they believe there is Helium in them Hills
4- Understand the market for Helium
5- Will not waste time sleeping over a penny or two and will simply buy it as they believe in the project as I do
6- Give a rats to charts and will just add on any silly drop.
7- We had 100 million extra share and they were not dumped in the market as some of us thought they would, so they are in sticky hands, just like mine are in mine
8- The country is supporting the explorations and backing the business as they too believe in the geologists and the evidence on the ground
9- There is not way in hell they will have my helium shares due to the all the above
Speak laters, when I have more time to elaborate on my thoughts
ST
ST, this is where you and I see it fundamentally, quite differently:
The SP does not represent the value of the company, it is simply a snapshot of all differing shades of opinion expressed through supply & demand of the shares sold & bought on the projected value if certain things come to pass over varying timescales.
In my world view, the SP reflects all the news that is out there. All the fundamentals, the update next week, the risks, the potential rewards, all of it.
The SP, imo is always AHEAD of the fundamentals, not lagging.
People buy & sell stocks based on the likely future events that may or equally may not come to pass. The news just confirms or confounds those expectations.
That's why shares get over bought and over sold.
The SP & the company in question, are only distantly related. Its people who buy & sell shares and through the predictability of crowds, so TA can offer an insight into the likeliest next move.
I'm interested when you say "We may see a little drop around where we are.....". Why here, at this price, why not earlier when it was 17p? Or later when its 20p?
What methodology suggests to you when some "consolidation "is likely? (Genuine question, not trying to be confrontational, Always difficult to get the "tone" across in a post)
Sharesaplenty,
You made me choke on me cornflakes!
I like the 'smell of Helium in the morning' line ST ;-)
Maybe we can ask David Minchin or another He1 senior staff to give a onsite interview at the drilling rig once spudding is underway. We could see about hiring Beaker from the Muppets to dub over the voice for the promotional video ;-)
Wyndrum,
You took your time to explain your thoughts on the chart indications, which was good. And indeed, I think most of us were expecting a little consolidation along the way. As we mentioned yesterday, people were pumping this every minute with price predictions and that doesn't help and it is a bit irresponsible.
Having said that, charts are good but they will come always after the fundamentals.
HE1 BoD has shown to many that they mean business (from IPO to drilling in less than 6 months)! Now try to beat that anyone?
They have an aggressive programme and I will certainly not sell a single share from here on, just add more, which I am preparing funds from somewhere else. We may see a little drop around where we are but that is just an opportunity to add in my books. Been adding here all along since I joined and not regretting.
Helium coming out of the ground in Tanzania feels like a farmer in Texas stepping into a puddle of crude oil in his farm and say..Hell ya, another one!!!
I say... There is nothing like the smell of Helium in the morning! ( that's said with a funny voice).
ST
I think you are right Shares but for practical reasons on this SP, given I am using the daily close, time interval, its not going to be applicable here (for my explanations)
Wyndrum, presumably the RSI must have a time half life function on it? Such that when the SP flatlines for a week (rather than 1 hour) the RSI value drops after a previous rise.
Deepbluediver,
Sorry about this, but could you give me bullet points on KIST why you think it is good? Short and sweet, as if you think it is good I will research it for a friend.
Cheers
ST
Wyndrum that has to be one of the best informative/impartial posts I have ever read. Really interesting. I have got funds free in my account and keep wandering around various shares as whether to invest or not or add more here. I'm going to add more here. And it looks like Scirroco is not a happy bunny so I will have some of their shares they sold here. All best Steadydanny