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Morning onedb
Now strictly from a trading point of view and only an observation in my experience of trading it.The higher the yields go with this stock it seems to stunt the rise in the sp.Last 4 months the risk factor was low were now in the moderate range
Higher the yields go the risk factor increases could be why the likes of BP shell etc are holding on to there gains. Could being the operative word.
Preferred it with the bigger swings tho.
Only an observation folks
ATB ;-)
Back in at 369 for a cheeky one ;-)
morning Jeff was reading about the bit you write about yields and indeed we could do with a decrease in the rate of change as too steep stifles tech/growth stocks yet good for oil/energy med term as high yields come as a result of expected higher inflation etc . Hence Oil up.
I agree with all that it's text book .
Technically we in an uptrend channel since mid Dec but long term range bound with 440p top to beat.
What I really don't understand is how with Brent at $88 (hedged bit at $61 for 2022 on 19m) and UK gas at 180p ( hedged bit at 47p I think for 25m boepd) has the price under performed Brent by so much or UK gas ? that is totally weird as we know that all things being more or less above $75 Brent this year will point towards a similar RNS for Genel i.e. a doubling of free cash flow.
So what is it that price is not seeing ? Sentiment alone ? Need for free cash flow from Tolmount to significantly add cash flow given the more that 3.5 times current hedged production ? A monthly trading update to release some good news on cash flow ?
I'd love to know as no broker sees current price as adequate .
Or is price subdued as shares are pre sold initially by the brokers as part of a lockup deal, hence post say March this flies as no more unwinding ? Who knows but worth figuring out .
Ho ho Pleebens couldn't think of a better term for it. Dont have a large vocabulary.Thought Id chuck it out there for a bit of humour.;-)
You'd have to be brave to be shorting an oil stock in this environment imo ,could be wrong tho.
Spike in the yields could that be down to the Fed hitting a glitch yesterday and not buying there quoted 6 billion worth.
Is it not just a case of it being traded,current rate of inflation outstripping any dividend payments.Why wait a yr when you can make it in a week.
Just a thought
ATB ;-)
dropped below the 50DMA now just as oil hits $89!!
Only been one day of crossover, not instant gratification like your liking for the showers! - here’s me thinking you were a family man…;).
Agree could go with a let up in those yields.
Oil on the other hand , hard to short with the Ukraine situation…see how hardball they can play and who bankrupts who first? Interesting Biden reps met with oil company heads over the weekend to see what could be done if Russia shuts the taps.
Communism world wide Jeff, and all for the flu.
Pleebens that golden cross turned out to be more of a golden shower,looking like its flattening out at the mo tho ho ho :-)
Sp Who knows the risk factor is up.Oil getting bought up like no tomorrow.Risk factor up, into moderate risk 112.
Could do with yields dropping.
Murmurings of nationalising the energy sector in the media , no doubt that will get more traction the higher the price of gas and oil goes,and more factories and old folk cant afford there bills .Be sold of as a vote winner.When the reality is its being done by design.
Just a thought
ATB ;-)
Oh look, we’ve started tracking oil now that it’s going down, it was irrelevant when it was £4 though. Joke of a share
maybe an email to FCA would be more useful. there's something seriously wrong here. oil price up and although their are heavily hedged, it makes no sense for share price to be down?
I think they've told malcy not to cover them anymore.
I wonder if someone like malcys blog could contact IR if he was emailed about lack of communication
At least you are getting a reply. I’ve posted a number of emails to investor relations over the last 6 weeks and haven’t even had a “thank you for your email we will get back to ASAP” type reply. Shocking really.
Very confusing. Almost every day there’s a reasonably large UT figure (normally a buy). Also published after closing seems to be some decent sized O trades classed as “unknown”. What does all of this mean?. SP being held back as someone builds on a regular basis? Maybe someone can quench my curiosity as lack of SP rise with current oil prices is doing my head in. GLA.
Amend for clarity:
.........."All total speculations and possible to machiavellian in thought.
32% (5% ers, 18% PMO creditors and 9% others) was up for grabs, post known lockins?
Rgds Sft
Hi Miles, what I do not understand is that EIG (36% present (and largest at merger) ownership of HBR shares), Chryasors former owners are still locked in until March.
So the only positive for them in the SP being low is the purchase of more shares, but there has been no indication (RNS) of them increasing their position.
EIG investors owned at merger an additional 32% of HBR at merger, I do not know what their lock in period was or current holdings are? Again no RNS's understanderble RNS's to indicate what their status is.
As above the only benefit (I can see) is fluctuations up could encourage sellers and the two EIG groups buying on dips. But again I can not see this supported in RNS unless small investment associated groups have been set up to mask and circumvent the ownership disclosure thresholds.
All total speculations and possible to machiavellian in thought.
32% was up for grabs, post known lockins?
Rgds Sft
@Rookie1 Have you had difficulties communicating with IR? As for your thought about getting lined up ... I already thought about that as well, but dismissed it as it would suggest that there would be a possible buyer keeping the share price down ... or some sort of M&A plans including a low HRB share price... and as much as I see possible buyers or partners interested in a low share price ... and maybe even some banks having this interest in mind ... I dont see any interest in it on Harbour´s side including management, holding about 2% of the company. They and many other major current shareholders also would make the same bad deal ... so, tempting as it is to "think badly" ... I dont believe it. What I think is what was already posted here before today: around 16% of all existing shares have been sold by creditors selling their 18% stake .. plus some of the shares that got unblocked end of September may also have been sold... so I guess - even though I underestimated the will of certain parties to get rid of their shares at current low prices: it is still selling pressure from creditors and unblocked shareholders holding the stock down.
So lets hope this will get better soon.
rookie please post reply here and ask about Tuna. it's still not too late to release an RNS on the DST as reported by SKK Migas and updated reserves
I’ve emailed harbour again. I look forward to my “**** off and and stop emailing us,you 5%ers can fight over the scraps” reply.
Oil nearly at $90 and we are 18p. You just know we are getting lined up for a shocking low ball offer and a sold out for around £4.50.
Exactly a year ago TLW was 59 (60 now), ENQ 23 (22.80) now, so identical sp to now. PMO was 34. HBR is now 18.85 (PMO money). This is unreal. Unreal. Unreal. TLW up 10% again today, ENQ up 4.2%, BP up for the 26th trading day in a row and approaching 400. We were down again. BP sp now much higher than our, whilst 10 months ago HBR was 400 and BP 189. What is going on, guys?!?