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Posted at weekend but not much pick up so reposting
Can’t help but wonder about dilution when we have 921 million new shares issued.
Just thinking of the manipulation when we had EIG and the other one looking for the door and events like yesterday with a 15 million sale and nothing happens either way..
Another thought is that Harbour have made it very very clear that BASF won’t be hanging around with comments like .” As long as they remain shareholders from Linda and Alexander talking about Buy Backs when questioned about BASF which could mean the share price is stuck whilst these monkeys get off the ship.
I’m still a big believer in Harbour especially having Slim in bed with but think the subject worthy of discussion…Especially by our friends who are good at numbers
Also a WHY question?
Why have BASF and Letter one decided to ditch all their oil and Gas projects due to wanting to align with the new green world yet keep the direst worst ones in Russia..
Honestly its nothing to do with Double Standard. Just doesn’t make any sense so I guess it’s money over morals…
I think you spot on Steve.
That’s exactly how I read it…
Roughly 709 million for Harbour in total.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/473506/harbour-energy-gets-approval-for-3-3bn-tuna-oil-and-gas-project-in-indonesia/
O&G prices are flying very nicely at the moment:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
Surprised at pretty poor returns on tuna project. In broad terms Development costs of $1b and OPEX of $2b and $2b of profit over project life (11 Years) of which Indonesia gov keeps 60%. So harbour and partner earns a profit of about $70m per year on which they pays indonesian corporate tax and harbour/partner has to upfront fund $1b of capex (which is recovered over project life). Looks like an after tax ROI of below 10% - very poor given risks involved.
Am i missing something?
Depends what price you're in at. i'm at 290. while i'm waiting for a stock to revalue, i'll bank the 6%+ divi and when Wintershall completes, I'll enjoy a ride up to circa £4 plus a no doubt very enhanced divi. GLA
Drilling Activity and Discoveries
Wintershall Dea will begin drilling the Kan-2 appraisal well on Block 30 offshore Mexico in the second half of 2024, following up the company’s discovery at the Kan exploration prospect made in April 2023.
UK operator Harbour Energy has reported a small gas discovery at its Ametyst exploration well located offshore Norway.
Harbour Energy has recently confirmed a gas discovery in its Ametyst well offshore Norway and the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) has now shared details about discovered resources.
https://www.marinelink.com/news/esgian-week-report-new-discoveries-uk-512307
Oh it’s a dog for sure dark knight. Just wanting a buy out for £3.60-£4 and I would be over the moon to never see the words ‘harbour energy’ ever again
Harbour just can't really above 280 lol no matter how high pil goes still below 280
TA looks good for a break out back to 297 area. Famous last words…
O&G prices seem to be rallying this morning, interesting article here out over the weekend:
“Oil Could Rise More than Anyone Expects This Year”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Could-Rise-More-than-Anyone-Expects-This-Year.amp.html
That’s some lofty valuation. Not sure if they have been smoking something….
Certainly could do with a lot higher than here.
I also wonder which area they will exit as we don’t have the money to go big in all the area we have.
Which are the best tax regimes and the most stable. Where do we get the biggest bang for our buck?
“Berenberg upgraded Harbour Energy on Wednesday to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and lifted the price target to 360p from 280p as it said that cash flow supports higher returns.”
“What is the Fair Price of HBR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.”
HBR Valuation - Today’s “Fair Value” £7.81
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-hbr/harbour-energy-shares/valuation
Good to note that Brent, UK, European (and Natural Gas) prices are all nicely up once again and with gas prices looking particularly bullish at the moment while Brent is now also trading clearly above it’s old USD $84 resistance mark:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
All okay but HBR ticker or Harbour energy does not even exist in the search field of the website you are promoting.
Https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/risks-opportunities/skk-migas-to-conclude-russian-soe-divestment-in-tuna-block-by-2024/
Latest news… Looking more Promising…..
This was from July last year. Hopefully someone wants their share and we can get cracking…..
“Russia’s state-owned oil and gas operator Zarubezhneft is working on an exit plan from Harbour Energy's Tuna oil and gas project offshore Indonesia — the UK operator has cited difficulties in working with its Russian partner because of international sanctions against the country and its corporations.
“Zarubezhneft will farm out, it is being processed. Of course, Harbour will [need a] new partner, but we do not know yet who will that be," Benny Lubiantara, a senior official at Indonesia's upstream regulator SKK Migas, told a press conference, Reuters reported.
Zarubezhnefts' decision comes despite Moscow maintaining close ties with Indonesia, which did not join the international sanctions that were introduced after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Indonesia is thus not on the Kremlin's list of more than 50 nations that it describes as “unfriendly”, with bank payments and other transactions between the two countries remaining outside the restrictions passed by Russia in response to the sanctions. Russia also maintains scheduled flight connections with the Indonesian capital Jakarta.
In March, Harbour acknowledged that Tuna’s development has been impacted by EU and UK sanctions “which limit our ability as operator to provide certain services to our Russian partner in the Tuna licence”.
“We are working with our partner to reach a solution to enable us to progress the project in 2023,” Harbour said at the time”
Sorry Koko,
I’m not following. I saw your earlier post just want to know why.
Is it one of the reasons I said earlier or have we been seen off and paid far to much…
Time will tell but either way it leaves their morals and ethics in the bin.
“BASF and LetterOne will continue to be the owners of the segment of Wintershall Dea associated with Russia. This decision highlights the strategic approach taken by both entities to maintain a presence in the Russian oil and gas market.”
https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/basf-and-letterone-extend-ownership-of-russian-oil-and-gas-company-wintershall-25484
Thanks Ancient but like your name both lots of news are……lol… Only teasing…
So the question of the weekend has to be WHY?
Why have BASF and Letter one decided to ditch all their oil and Gas projects due to wanting to align with the new green world yet keep the direst worst ones in Russia..
Honestly it nothing to do with Double Standards or Money..lol
Offshore Technology:
Harbour Energy and partners make gas discovery offshore Norway
The discovery is estimated to hold between one and three billion standard cubic metres of recoverable oil equivalent.
Norwegian Offshore Directorate announced that Harbour Energy, along with its partners Sval and Aker BP, has made a gas discovery at well 15/9-25 in the North Sea, building on previous findings from two other exploration wells.
This discovery, which lies northeast of the Sleipner area, approximately 210km west of Stavanger, has been estimated to hold between one and three billion standard cubic metres of recoverable oil equivalent.
Drilled using the Noble Integrator rig to a measured depth of 2,872m below the sea, the well 15/9-25, which is the first in production licence 1138 awarded during the 2021 Awards in Pre-defined Areas (APA).
The primary exploration target for well 15/9-25 was to prove petroleum in Middle Jurassic and Triassic reservoir rocks within the Hugin and Skagerrak formations.
The secondary target aimed to delineate gas previously proven in wells 16/7-2 and 16/7-10, located in the Ty Formation from the Palaeocene.
This well identified a 22m thick aquiferous sand layer with very good reservoir quality in the Hugin Formation and a 10m gas column in a 118m-thick sandstone reservoir with very good reservoir quality in the Ty Formation.
Harbour and its partners are now assessing the technical and financial viability of connecting the discovery to the existing infrastructure in the vicinity.
The gas/water contact was found at 2,330m below sea level, aligning with previous findings.
Although well 15/9-25 was not formation-tested, extensive data acquisition and sampling were conducted.
The well was terminated in the Smith Bank Formation in the Upper Triassic.
Last month, Harbour Energy signed a five-year master service agreement (MSA) with EthosEnergy.
The deal positions EthosEnergy as the primary service provider for the maintenance and support of Harbour Energy’s light industrial gas turbines across three North Sea production assets in the UK sector.
Berenberg ups Harbour Energy to 'buy'
Berenberg upgraded Harbour Energy on Wednesday to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and lifted the price target to 360p from 280p as it said that cash flow supports higher returns.
Harbour Energy reported its FY23 results on 7 March and Berenberg said that most of the key figures were in line with those reported in the January trading update.
"Importantly, despite recent headlines, the company remains confident in completing its merger with Wintershall Dea, which will transform the portfolio in terms of scale and diversification," the bank said.
It said Harbour’s deal to take control of most of Wintershall Dea’s upstream portfolio adds significant scale to the business and diversifies the portfolio away from the UK’s challenging fiscal system.
"Based on our initial modelling, it significantly increases cash flow and potential for increased shareholder returns - publication of the prospectus (expected in Q2 2024) is likely to provide more detail and reduce some of the uncertainty in our initial forecasts," it said.
Berenberg noted that the company has guided to a 5% increase in dividends and said it expects the higher cash flow to support dividend per share growth over the medium term.
The bank said it was updating its model to incorporate FY24 guidance from both Harbour and Wintershall Dea, and give credit for tax deductibility of decommissioning provisions in its valuation.
"The net effect is a 29% increase in our price target to 360p and we upgrade our rating to buy (from hold)," it said.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/berenberg-ups-harbour-energy-to-buy--16428188.html
BASF and LetterOne Extend Ownership of Russian Oil and Gas Company Wintershall
BASF, the German chemical giant, and LetterOne, an investment group led by Mikhail Fridman, have decided to maintain their ownership stakes in the Russian business of the oil and gas company Wintershall Dea. This decision comes despite the ongoing sale of foreign assets to Harbour Energy, a transaction that involves the transfer of Wintershall Dea's oil and gas business to Harbour Energy. However, the deal excludes Russia-related businesses and the gas transmission business in Germany. The legal separation of these Russia-related businesses is part of an ongoing process.
The anticipated completion of the transaction involving BASF, LetterOne, and Harbour Energy is slated for the fourth quarter of 2024. The report indicates that even as the foreign assets are being divested, BASF and LetterOne will continue to be the owners of the segment of Wintershall Dea associated with Russia. This decision highlights the strategic approach taken by both entities to maintain a presence in the Russian oil and gas market.
Mario Mehren, the head of Wintershall, acknowledged the serious consequences of the withdrawal from Russia. The company is currently undergoing a restructuring process, which involves adjusting its operations and portfolio to align with the changing dynamics of the oil and gas industry. The decision to retain ownership of the Russia-related businesses signifies a commitment to maintaining a foothold in the Russian energy market despite the divestiture of certain assets.
Wintershall Dea positions itself as the largest independent producer of gas and oil in Europe, with operations spanning Norway, Germany, and Russia (in collaboration with Gazprom). The company also has a significant presence in Latin America, Egypt, and the Middle East. The ongoing restructuring is expected to streamline its operations and enhance efficiency in response to market challenges.
https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/basf-and-letterone-extend-ownership-of-russian-oil-and-gas-company-wintershall-25484
I guess it depends on BASF timescale.
Don’t forget they have done it before and Alexandra touched on it in the questions last week…
Highly unlikely that they will try and dribble 921m shares through the market imho. Much more likely is a secondary placing, which given HBR is likely to be a FTSE 100 company would see a good takeup I would expect