Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Interesting how Ramsdens' share price reacted to their YE results.
On 12th Jan, RFX closed around 219p. Results came out on 15th Jan, initially leading to a 10% share price drop to 198p. Since then, it has recovered just over half, currently trading at around 210p.
Their results v. 2022/3 YE were good, but with possibly lower overall growth than H&T? We'll soon find out!
Ramsdens noted a slowdown in trading for the first quarter of their new trading year (Oct - Dec 23), with flat foreign exchange gross profits & currency purchases from returning holiday makers "still subdued". They also referenced flat revenues in their jewellery retail division.
RFX highlights:
TAILWINDS:
Continuing strong gold price
Customer demand for small sum short term loans remains high
Potentially strong forex growth in 2024
HEADWINDS:
£0.4m increase in energy costs from Feb 24 when their current fix ends
(unlike H&T which has locked in at a similar rate to its previous tariff until end 2025)
10% increase in Real Living Wage from May 2024
(will also impact H&T)
Slowing forex income growth during summer 2023
(last August, H&T said "Momentum is building into the peak summer months, supported by the launch of our 'Click and Collect' service in June. In addition, we have broadened the range of currencies held in stock at store level, and available for immediate purchase. Average transaction size remains below historic levels at £398 (H1'2022: £406) evidencing, we believe, careful holiday budgeting by our customers." So they MAY also have experienced a slowdown here, if Click and Collect didn't increase transaction volumes enough to offset any fall in average transaction values).
H&T's share price has softened again over the past few days. Perhaps as a result of the subdued market reaction to RFX's results. I presume H&T's results will be out on Monday 22nd January. Looks like they may need to beat RFX's growth significantly if the share price is to hold up. Regardless of how the market reacts next week, anything below 400p would still be a decent entry point in the long term, IMHO. Particularly given the decent, progressive yield.
Their CEO was on Business Live this morning - very upbeat about the future for their market.
I've been trying to get in below 420 for the last couple of weeks, just managed it this morning.
Yesterday’s close was Bid 421p, Ask 427p.
Today, LSE shows a 10p drop to Bid 416p, Ask 429p. Go figure.
Presumably, maths isn’t their strong point.
As if to illustrate my point, HAT's share price is shown at today's close UP 1p at Bid 421p, Ask 427p.
Earlier today it was shown as DOWN 9p at Bid 412p, Ask 429p.
By endlessly fiddling around with the spread, you can create any story you like.
A lot of the time with H&T, share price movement (both up & down) is largely down to marketmakers fiddling around with the spread.
It's happened again this morning. LSE's currently showing a price drop of just over 2% (9 pence). Whereas in reality, all that's happened is the spread has widened to 17p (Bid 412p, Ask 429p). Not long ago, that same spread was in the mid single digits.
H&T's imminent trading update will be illuminating. Personally, I doubt anything's knocked the company significantly off course since 17th November 2023, when the CFO said "We have continued to see good growth in the pledge book in the second half of the financial year, with sustained demand for our products and services, and the investment we are making in our store estate is expected to underpin future growth. The new facility, alongside our existing long-standing support from Lloyds, will enable us to grow our pledge book further in FY24."
Had there been any major reason behind early December's share price drop from around 470p to below 400p (briefly), I imagine the company would be legally obliged to RNS it. If I'm wrong, the current share price volatility is more understandable - and the trajectory is likely to worsen. But I still find this scenario highly unlikely, given the steady stream of positive updates & Director share buys at higher than current price levels. So for now, I'm not losing any sleep over these short term price jolts.
If, as we investors believe, the business is going well, supported by all recent updates and director purchases, and the share price weakness is misplaced, then the next update should see some strength returning. Last year they issued a trading update on 18th Jan, so we should expect one in around 2 weeks - if the price continues to be weak, probably worth a purchase before then.
Laughton - or does it?!
Still very volatile, with a near 5% fall this morning for no immediately obvious reason.
If it goes below £4, I'll be adding. Again.
Worth remembering how many chunky Director share buys went through within the last 6 months. And nothing much has changed since then.
Sure, April's National Living Wage increase may have an impact. But as I've said before, it's not like H&T - as market leader - has no pricing power. So I believe they'll simply adjust their retail prices & lending rates to counterbalance this. Yes, dividends may rise a little more slowly than previously thought, But it remains a decent yield (&, I believe, a lowly P/E rating) for a tightly managed, conservatively run & consistently profitable business.
Sanity returns.
Levantic - maybe in the short term. But their influence doesn't seem to be sticking for long.
Yes but unfortunately they have a profound influence on the share price-frustrating.
The daftest part of all this is that Shore Capital has a price target of 565p on HAT, even after their latest revisions:
“Nonetheless, a 565p share price forecast still represents a 21% upside against H&T’s 468p publication price.”
I really think brokers & analysts are best ignored. They’re mostly completely clueless and in some cases bordering on corrupt. I’ll carry on adding, prioritising my own research & gut feel over theirs, thanks all the same.
Absolutely.NLW will affect every single business that employs,so why Shore has zero'd in on HAT particularly is a mystery.Not even factoring possible rate cuts .
Hardboy - gawd knows! Logic would dictate that ALL retail & hospitality shares plummeted on the NLW announcement. But they didn’t. I doubt any weakness will last long & will continue to accumulate & collect the growing divis in the interim.
"pressure on its operating costs when the National Living Wage goes up" - we've known about that since the autumn statement, so why the panic in the last 2 days?
I also added today & HAT is now by far my largest holding.
Anyone who actually bothers rreading the broker note will see they say HAT "will face pressure on its operating costs when the National Living Wage goes up next April but increased funding capacity and higher-than-expected book growth will offset this." So what's the panic? One factor cancels out the other.
Unless there's something we don't yet know (which I very much doubt, as HAT's Directors have always been pretty transparent in the past), there's really nothing to see here. All white noise IMHO, which is why I added.
Don't forget, as recently as June 23, HAT's Chairman was a significant buyer at 444p. As was the CFO at 431p in Apri, and the CEO at 428p in March. They know what's going on and said in their August 2023 update:
"We are mindful of the impact upon our employees, suppliers and stakeholders of persistent inflation and rising interest rates. H&T is not immune to these factors, which have resulted in operating costs being higher than previously envisaged. However, much of this cost inflation is now factored into the cost run rate. We expect a lower level of cost inflation in the second half of the year which, alongside the growing revenue momentum of the business, puts us on track to deliver record profits in 2023."
I doubt much has changed ince August to knock those record profits off course. And once the NLW increase kicks in next April, HAT will simply adjust its retail prices and loan interest rates to offset this.
If you look at the graph, the shares have suffered these quick collapses on more than one occasion in recent years. Each time it has been right to buy into the weakness and it should be no different this time, with current trading good and the economy heading into problems in 2024.
I said yesterday that I was not buying a whole unit. Today, I topped up at c.400p. Very happy.
Mad HATter
Certainty surprised me how it has dropped so much.
For 2024,for even a 10% drop on the EPS, at this price the P/E would be only 6.75 approx.This is low.
Thanks to everyone who replied - always good to get views of other shareholders. Reading the Shore Capital note, I would say it's positive rather than negative. But in current markets even the slightest whiff of negative comment can send prices down. Anyway, I added this morning, and since reading your opinions, overall I'm glad I did.
Thanks for the url, LeeC7. A 565p share price forecast looks fair to me and with an attractive dividend payout as well and society, sadly, needing to use pawnbrokers so much these days, I think today's sell-off is little more than selling into a lack of liquidity. I have bought at 426p and will enjoy the bounce back (in my dreams!).
Article re: Shore Capital - www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1035775/h-t-s-pledge-book-to-grow-more-than-expected-offsetting-wage-pressure-analysts-1035775.html
I brought more today. i think it will go back in low greens today, or a little in the red.
Uh-oh - Yes, my conclusion is that there seems to be nothing tangible awry, but if someone wants to reduce their holding, the small float for H&T means the price is likely to be volatile. Agree, it's a cautious buying opportunity! ;-)
Morning. I see that Shore Capital has produced a research note today, with a headline of 'Upward pressure on costs'. I cannot access it, so I have no idea if the headline is misleading, but as NOMAD and broker to the company, it is difficult to believe that the article is negative overall.
I have traded this stock several times before and excessive price falls in H&T are not uncommon. With trading good and the rating cheap, I view this morning's c.9% setback as another buying opportunity. However, I won't buy a usual whole unit - perhaps 2/3rds of what I normally buy just in case something is awry!