Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Just had a quick skip through them, so may have missed things, but they look good.
Income up 13%, Operating Profit up 43%, Dividend up 13%, Pledge Book up 28%, FX income up 11%, EPS up 31%, NAV up 8%, Return on equity up, on line sales up 65%.
Retail was only up 8%, and margins reduced, so probably the main semi-cloud. But it sounds like this has picked up a bit since new year, and a lot of businesses would be happy with 8% growth in sales.
Obviously the spend on new stores and refurbishments is draining resources, but the indications are that this will pay healthily in the future. With a debt to profit ratio of around 1 it is still manageable by most theories.
Surely this will push the share price up. EPS of 48.5. For a company growing sales & profits well into double figures to have a PE of under 10 is ridiculous. To have a yield of around 5% when committed to a cover of 2+ is also very cheap.
Let's see what Mr market thinks (I'm sure he loves disagreeing with me just to upset me!)
Many Thanks for this
I need to go through it
5%: "What I really need is a shares or investment forum where can discuss wider issues than single shares"
Join SIGnet - https://www.sharesoc.org/signet/
Depends where you live as to how useful it will be. They are working on getting national coverage so everyone will have a group close enough for them. I've found membership very useful. It's certainly helped me get a lot more disciplined as an investor. (As I'm on the National Committee I can give more info if you need it.) They will have a stand at the Master Investor show on Saturday.
HAT has a higher than usual 'insider ownership/holder register than most so I personally think charts shouldn't be dismissed here. Quite the opposite. This is a very tradeable share if you follow the pointers. I've only recently following it but at some point over the last few weeks all the signals to sell would have been there (Death Cross etc). It now trades well below it s 200 day MA , so far off that it won't be breaching that for a while, if at all
Results on the 12th so all will be revealed. Personally I don't think they'll be bad, just maybe not quite good enough. Could easily be a frothy spike which would probably be worth selling into imho. Someone has dumped £340 000 worth today. That wasn't a single transaction and would have taken a while to work so would account for the weakness here recently. Hardly inspires confidence but could just be someone rebalancing with a view to buy back in.
No-one on here knows. The market is pricing in average to weak results but the market is usually extreme so they might surprise.
GLA
The people on here who profess to be experts say things that show they have no idea what the results will be next week. So why even waste time talking about it? It is pure speculation. True I'm in, but at least I recognise I am only trusting in the Gods. Added to which, do we really know that the professionals don't find out first ? My understanding is the computers can react in milliseconds, so there is zero chance of profiting on the news, it has already happened. Glad to be contradicted if people think otherwise. Other people seem to think the directors are trading because they know the results in advance. So why get involved in something where others have an advantage ? I have even seen people apparently not even knowing there is a bit of news, and asking why the price has moved. I am not trying to be rude, I just have not heard any valid argument for investing in one share. Or are you telling me you are really making big money by doing so ?
Googled it, the first one said ' ETFs are for suckers'. But I note Bridgewater has virtually all its money in 3 ETFs, VWD, EEM, SPY. Need to check out. Of course Lyxor do a Bridewater ETF, so why bother playing with the market when Bridgewater is sort of successful can do it for you ? Not that they done great the last few years. They probably worry too much about crashes and the rest.
Actually a forum discussing ETFs might be the thing. I am losing faith that individual shares are worth the time, how can anybody really beat the market ? Anyway I am more of a themes ( eg economy ) person than a company detail person. Don't want to bother with AGMs, company reports and the rest. But not just a world etf, rather I would like to trade different specific ETFs, I believe that is the correct route. But only for me, maybe.
What I really need is a shares or investment forum where can discuss wider issues than single shares e.g. is it time to sell Tech, is it time to buy Australia, and so on. Does anybody know of a good website ?
5percent - get well soon.
By the way, I confess the guy who accused me of a share disinformation campaign was right. I am working for Soviet Intelligence. Next week, supposed to be impersonating King Charles. Sounds a doddle, just have to pick up some old dear at a horse show, then sit in the back of a Land Rover Discovery waving. After that, it is back to Sharechat to crash US tech. Hope it is still frothy.
Of course, anybody who bought Google at the start and STAYED IN, would now be rather well off. Are the chipmakers at the start of 20 years non-stop rises ? Answers on a postcard please.
Only a quick reply as tired tonight. Maybe more to follow. Warren Buffett says to buy when there is blood on the floor. So if the chart shows a massive decline, it might be a buy. Buying when the chart shows a massive rise may not be a good idea. For example, would you buy US Tech today ? I would rather buy fish and chips than a US chipmaker right now. But clearly one might say, one needs to understand WHY the chart is up and down. But that presumes that the market is rational and logic - in my opinion, it is at least partly not . It is as much emotional, and always goes too far either up or down. Anyway time for rest.
5percent - I wouldn't presume to call anyone an idiot and am sorry if that's what you felt.
I was, however, questioning what seemed like a contradictory set of posts from you recently.
The fact that the charts seemed OK when you bought but don't now, just shows why charts are of very limited value to investors IMHO. Relying on the recent past to predict the future can sometimes work. But it's equally likely not to.
Charts are brilliant at telling you history.
My investing is a combination of charts and basic themes eg a recession or depression is good for pawnbrokers
As regards pawnbrokers and loans, you seem to agree my basis was correct. If indeed there is a serious recession. I believe the Ukraine war is essentially the cause
As regards charts, they seemed OK when I invested but not since. Yes my investing mode takes a lot from charts, whether that is bizarre I don't know, but it seems to work usually. I suspect only bizarre methods yield good profits, how else can one be different enough to profit ?
I have been called an idiot since I was born, so that does not bother me. One gets used to it.
5percent - so you bought into H&T, despite admitting you hadn't done much/any research into it.
Now you're looking at their chart & deciding it looks bad.
All I can say is either your posts & motives are suspect - or you've a VERY bizarre way of investing.
BTW - a recession/weak economy has GOT to be good overall for H&T & other pawnbrokers. As I explained before, the bulk of their sales & profits come from lending rather than retail activity. When times are tough, more people need loans.
275-265 looks a reasonable mid-term target but with the results looming probably better to wait, especially if there's an initial fluffy spike with no substance. Could take it up to 390ish on the usual over-enthusiasm and typical write up. That would be where to slap a short on.
Anyways, I'm not here to run this stock down. Just alerted to it by some big mouth on another BB so I've been having a good look at it now.
GLA, DYOR and beware of anonymous posters, including me
Also, whilst I do not base everything on charts, I do tend to agree that the chart looks BAD
You are correct, I had not researched properly
Now you have explained , I at least understand logic of discussion
Though still seem to be contrary views as to whether overall a recession is good for this business, that is how the various revenue streams play out. Does a recession really increase or decrease pawnbroking profits ? Not really sure, although I get the impression the consensus is that it does.
"In FY 2022, H&T's sales were £173-941m of which retail represented "only" £45.197m"
Which is just over 25%.
5percent - since you say you're invested in H&T, I presume you've already researched the various strands that combine to make up their sales & profit?
I'd be rather puzzled if you hadn't bothered doing this before committing to their shares. But if that's the case, I'd suggest taking a look at their previous years' results fairly pronto.
Whilst retail sales are important, they only form one element of H&T's revenues. Some of the other large elements (pawnbroking, gold purchasing, pawnbroking scrap etc) are far more likely to excel in a recession, thus counterbalancing any potential retail softness.
In FY 2022, H&T's sales were £173-941m of which retail represented "only" £45.197m.
Hopefully you get my point now?
You won't get anything worthwhile out of him 5% - He's talking his own book as usual. Add to the fact that a change of government will have some sort of impact on any business of this nature, even if it's psychological at first, interest rates should start easing. - As this occurs money will rotate into smaller, more speculative caps, as it did out of them when this last cycle started a couple of years back.
Chart looks dire. Only thing that punters can wish for here is excellent results this March. Average or worse and I doubt there will be much to stop it drifting lower.
All imho of course, for what it's worth
How benefit if sales down ?
We've already just experienced a recession. Whether or not this technically continues into Q1 2024 is largely irrelevant IMHO.
The UK economy's hardly going to grow at all this year, people will still be experiencing price pressures & pawnbrokers are likely to benefit overall from this (even if their retail sales remain soft).
I bought this because I think a recession is coming
I am beginning to wonder
Is my logic wrong
If retail sales fall, this falls too ?? That appears to be the case recently ??