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The timing of the dividend is neither here nor there. I'm much more focused on the company's ability to generate cash rather than pay it out. As should you be.
(A buyback has the potential to shift the composition of the share register and so has much more interesting potential than a dividend.)
No real surprises?
I've read you constantly state there would be no dividend news until the March results... don't want to admit your surprise at another bumper $50m payout??
Off target on that one weren't you sir, probably best to stick to basic math (maths).....
No real surprises except the SH-12 news and lack of buyback. Oh well.
Great analysis there, Theoryman. Thank you.
As done with previous Update, answers are in [ brackets ]
Av. production for 2021 [ 43440 bopd, top end guidance ]
Progress re SH-13 [Acid stimulation completed]
Progress re SH-14 [ Acid stimulation currently in progress ]
Progress re SH-15 [ drilling progressing well, expected hook up Q2 2022]
Progress re installation of the two ESPs [ No mention ]
Total cash received 2021 [ $221 million net, Jan payments received too late to be included in 2021 accounts ]
Invoices for Nov & Dec 21 [ No mention ]
Cash balance at EOY. [ No mention ]
Dividend/buyback strategy [ $50 million interim Div, no further detail. ]
CRP [ No mention ]
R factor [ No mention ]
Outlook based on specific content of above, progress re FDP…
SH-13 &14 production below expectations.
SH-12 temporarily shut down, plans to optimise production given early appearance of trace water - has happened to other wells on field and has been dealt with successfully in previous cases.
Cash balance 21/01/22 of $228 million, with $28.6 million net arrears from Jan & Feb 2020 still to be received.
No new deadline for reaching the previous target of 55k bopd.
Guidance for this year is now gross 44k to 50k bopd, which is after including expected production from SH-15 and benefits of well work overs.
FDP, continuing to engage with MNR.
An update on SH-13/14/15 is a must, obviously
Total cash received 2021 $232.4m + $44.6m of arrears for receipts relating to 2021 sales plus they received $14.1 for sales relating to Dec 2020 production in Jan 2021
Invoices for Nov & Dec 21 Still waiting on 1£fish for his estimates here (I have my own) Hopefully we at least get production updates for Nov/Dec in order to firm these up. Both are as good as cash. January almost in the bag as well at great prices.
Cash balance at EOY They have already announced $176m as of Dec 16. No further receipts before end of year as Sep/Oct didn't hit until the new year. So subtract 1/2 -1 month's opex, capex and G&A depending on date of cash balance provided (normally a date in January). You can already pro forma for receipts in relation to Sep/Oct 2021 sales. Therefore shouldn't be any surprises here.
CRP and R factor. It would be good to get an update on these but personally I don't expect them until YE results. Fingers crossed but let's see. (You can model both with reasonable accuracy; certainly well enough anyways. The CRP will have fallen a lot and the R factor risen a good deal.)
Dividend/buyback strategy. This is the biggie ..... along with any progress on:
FDP. I'm not expecting production to go much above 55k at any point this year (even with early agreement on FDP) for obvious reasons
Outlook/guidance for 2022 capex and opex (is it lowered from $2.5-2.9 per barrel at the Contractor level)
Seems best to wait for next Update - based on previous four years, due before end of Jan.
Av. production for 2021
Progress re SH-13
Progress re SH-14
Progress re SH-15
Progress re installation of the two ESPs
Total cash received 2021
Invoices for Nov & Dec 21
Cash balance at EOY.
Dividend/buyback strategy
CRP
R factor
Outlook based on specific content of above, progress re FDP..
Just bought in to get some dividends over the coming years. Looks like a cash flow machine.
Whats to say ? Its all been said over the years. We all know about the potential massive size of Shaikan.
Now its just the wait till the end game. (Hopefully)
SS
Is there anybody out there still??