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Nice reply Pete. I think an issue is that they have asked why should they "speculate" on. In my view we are past the point of speculation. That PFS establishes a baseline for what Hav and by proxy GGP is worth without factoring in any upgrades to the MRE, upgrade in indicated resources, feasibility study next year (which will provide even more information on costs, mine plan etc) or additional exploration on our other tenements. I think a lot of people are confused as to what GGP is which is creating uncertainty in the market. You have people investing for the longer term alongside traders and people looking for a multibagger in two weeks. The PFS provides the 1st step in gaining institutional support at which point the transition to becoming a producer, and the 2nd lowest cost gold producer in the world at that, will be almost complete.
Companies transitioning from explorer to producer is a narrative and catalyst that investors and in particular institutions like. Because you start generating cash flow, a measurable metric for a business. When you look at the Lassonde curve, that marks the 2nd rise to the peak, which in turn is the larger of the two moves. So if you ask me, GGP is currently in the trough between the 1st and 2nd peak of the lassonde curve. Therefore, its a fantastic investment opportunity. It's a terrible trading opportunity in my view.
This is without factoring in any exploration success. If for example we get a hit at one of the Juri Jv targets. Lets say for instance Goliath gets a 50m @ 3g/t intercept or something like that. You then have a plausible discovery hole akin to Had105. That project then follows the 1st leg of the lassonde curve. So you then have an additional driver for the company. So basically, you have the narrative of becoming a gold producer with Havieron and a 2nd narrative involving discovering a 2nd Havieron which anybody who missed the boat first time, will not want to miss the 2nd. Instead of trying to time the market, I really believe in this case its better to spend time in the market to see if this plays out. The risk/reward is asymmetrical in my view and thus worth an investment.
SpadesAspaid I agree with your statement about being patient .I bought Whitbread shares in 2010 for about £9.50 i still have them. So waiting a few years for ggp is a stroll in the park Atb
Brilliant Post! Patience is the key. Sit on your hands!
Couldn't agree more Spade. Patience here is all that is needed and yes it is almost de-risked or at least the most de-risked on AIM. I would argue as a private investor that building up a holding here before the institutions start to invest makes sense as the share price will rise quickly when the first major Inst. investors take a sizable holding, as they will.
Spade I hope yo are right, I will be happy if you are.
Kempey, I'm pretty sure we already have institutional investors
Manipulation, Shorting, De-Rampers, Rampers folk talking about Buy Outs and anything else they decide to throw at us, won't really matter in the end. The only thing you need is patience.
Once I had accumulated my holding in 2019, of which I have neither added to or sold any, I have just taken all the up's and down's in my stride.
This is one of the most de-risked shares on the market, and I for one will continue to sit back and relax knowing that in a couple of years time this will be as rewarding as winning the lottery. I have said many times, if you are an investor then patience is a given. And that is why I urge you to keep investing in GGP.
There are some unscrupulous members of this BB trying their best to get some to sell, but they will not be getting any of mine.
GLA
KJgood1....the institutions won't invest yet until Greatland are a producer. At the moment they are considered an explorer and that comes with risk. Even if they sold Havieron they could blow the lot exploring their other tenements. I don't think they will but the banks etc have to consider the possible risk. You don't gamble on AIM explorers with other peoples pension money which effectively the institutions are using. They will start investing I think in a years time when they see the first gold. Even a PFS or FS is still a paper exercise based on all the data the company has to date and that data changes by the month.
Because everything about Greatland Gold is fantastic!
The drilling results and progress reports are fantastic.
The management team is fantastic.
The future is fantastic.
The continually low share price is fantastic.
I rarely post I'm not that knowledgeable to be able to to be honest, but Petejh post made absolute sense to me. I can see that one day there will be a good return on my investment, but I couldn't quite understand why the market and by that I mean the institutions wasn't going mad for GGP.
Really enjoy reading Paddy G and Hydros posts as they really set the scene for an idiot like me but Petejh's posts spelt out the reality at the moment for me.
Excellent well thought out post, with a lot of truth in there !
Great post Peter
People seem to have a tough time understanding or are just wilfully ignorant
They look at the figures given by Newcrest and say thats all there is so thats all GGP is worth; no its a start miner, tip of the golden iceberg etc theres likely multiples of the MRE like the PFS said lower cost higher production avenues to pursue where appropriate
Ssssh, don't tell everyone.
I still need some more time to build on my holding here.
He thanked me for a reasonable answer to his question. He's a switched on mining investor, I presume he gets that there can be more than meets the eye, and appearances can be deceptive if you haven't followed a project closely. I mentioned Filo del Sol because their PFS is years old and only for a small portion of a gigantic resource currently being drilled out. It's not a direct comparison but there are similarities there.
Excellent response @petejh. Did the man get it? I know lots of morons in a hurry that would now be hurrying to buy based on what you just said. Well done that man!!!
This is more or less what I replied to a Canadian commodities investor yesterday, who posed the following question:
Him:
How does this make sense to speculate on?
NPV: USD 508M
CAPEX: USD 381
MC: USD 918M (pre-open)
Me:
It makes sense because it's a PFS that's been rushed out by Newcrest using historical info which is now far out of date, so that they can establish a small starter mine (with high grades nonetheless) which prevents Telfer going into 1-2 years of care and maintenance that it would take while they proved up a larger proportion of the massive potential of the larger Havieron deposit. Instead they have cash flow beginning 2023/4. The big picture - as for projects such as Filo del Sol - is that the PFS doesn't reflect anything near the actual scale and value of the deposit. For sure if you invested in GGP based just on the figures in the PFS or even the MRE you'd be a complete idiot (and there are many of those in the UK, who do think this!). Big picture is an operation on the scale of Cadia. But yes I suppose you could just sit on sidelines for another year or two and still probably get in at a decent sp. I'll trade the rips and dips but hold a long term core.
The cost of putting the massive fly-in/out Telfer plant on hold and laying off 3000 personnel while they spent 2-3 years putting together a PFS that reflected the true scale of Havieron would be a big hit to Newcrest's business in the current climate. This small scale PFS makes total sense as as short-term stop-gap. Yes it makes GGP look overvalued, but only if you can't see past the end of your nose. There's good rationale for the 'overvaluation' in this case. GGP are at the mercy of Newcrest's strategic vision. That's the price you pay for becoming a minority partner but there was never another way to realistically develop Havieron in good time. imo.
I hope at least some of you AIM muppets can understand the mechanics here, and not get led either into despair from naysayers nor ecstatic optimism from balloon pumpers.