Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
MM s nudging this to near the 2p I reckon they expect the informal update any day and if positive will look to test the appetite around the 2 mark. If not there then back under again.
1plus1 hi,
Sorry a bit late but thanks very much for your spread sheet, much appreciated, thanks.
ATB
Tom :-)
I'm seeing case studies online from a google search stating 12mt/year and another case study 15mt/year from block cave mining..
Hi Timid
Just following on from your message to TomE quoted below:
"What if NCM was happy with 40mt at 4g/t i.e. 4.5moz (assuming 90% recoveries)? That's a 9 mine life at a modest 4.5mtpa for 500kozpa Au. NCM 2020 guidance for Telfer is 400-460koz of gold."
Surely if/when we block cave mine Hav then we only selectively target the high grade zones, and also the talk is they will employ ore grading/sorting technology before higher grade ore is transported to Telfer... I'm sure this would have the effect of raising the grade of the ore being fed into Telfer to, lets pick a number out of the hat, 7g/t? And your quoted 4.5mtpa is only ~20% of the Telfer capacity, it can do 22mtpa and I would imagine there would be a lot more ore available per year once block cave starts than 4.5mtpa, so again, number out of a hat let's say 9mtpa at 7g/t, that's nearer 1.8moz per annum.
They can do 400-460koz just now and will likely improve on this as they implement their grading technology, so i'm proposing they will reach levels nearer 2moz/year once they get going with Hav.
Hi Grizzle, I am at work so have only just seen his reply and haven't had a chance to look at the notes yet. Good news I take it??
https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/havieron-dec-2019-pdf.1892628/?filename=HAVIERON+DEC+2019.pdf
-
This is great stuff...thanks G1
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/paterson-province-2018-and-future.4596344/
G1. Try posting it on the GGP thread on ADVFN which is far more amenable to posting volume
Sorry... That should read 5-15m oz based on avge grading of 1.5-2 g/tn
Paddy... I take it that u have seen Salpeties copious notes on Hotcopper Antipa board... Very useful supporting 'fag packet' analysis of around 5-10m oz bases on 20-40% estimated mineralisation and dyke unknowns at this stage... Do you wish to ask him if he minds posting some/all of it in twitter? He may be reticent, but the limitations of LSE make it impossible to post it hear for others to see...
TomE,
I modelled a few scenarios so I could have an idea roughly what share price might be achievable as drilling results are released.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1BxhC0qy0HF2lE2O5lnZcZLLQ4BHA4dDC
This is my point as with respect !! Owlo's last post where he said "I will be amazed if its not 3P some time next year"
What are we talking about 2p, 3p, 4p, 10p, 30p as its changing from member to member and I have no clue what price to be base my own assumptions on, as I am thinking overall in the 4 / 6p range ?????? and that is a load as far as I am concerned and I would be quite happy at that price.
Owlo - I think I read in one of the Newcrest reports or it may even have been in Sandeep's Q&A session on Red Chris that they base all their investment decisions on $1,200/oz so that's even better.
GLA - Paddy
JC/ Timid hi,
Thanks for your replies and I understand both. IMO I feel that 4/5 p is more than a sensible suggestion and maybe more, but as JC says " reach those sort of numbers if the Patterson continues to unveil Tier 1 targets" but I am talking about Havieron stand alone only ???
JC do you mean GGP as a buyout price 20/30p + for the whole of Patterson ????
This is why I am a little surprised at the 4p from some and 20/30p from others, are we talking about
1. Havieron as one area
2. Scally BH FT etc as all others
3. All the above as one package
TomE isn't Numis in the "sensible" camp? If the answer is "ye' then 4p is your answer. But the exploration at Havieron is very dynamic. As we all know NCM is in a hurry to prove up some special.
But most of the posters here are focussed on a bulk tonnage, lower grade operation.
What if NCM was happy with 40mt at 4g/t i.e. 4.5moz (assuming 90% recoveries)? That's a 9 mine life at a modest 4.5mtpa for 500kozpa Au. NCM 2020 guidance for Telfer is 400-460koz of gold.
Just a thought.
TomE - it doesn't take too much imagination to reach those sort of numbers if the Patterson continues to unveil Tier 1 targets - big IF of course and it will take time but imo it is feasible.
ATB
Notice some are suggesting about 20/30p and more!!!!!!!. Do you really think that will happen ?????? That is an enormous amount seeing others are suggesting 3/5p. What is a sensible price for HAV and not exploding the price out of reality.
It would be nice of course to see 20/30p but that seems to be a fairy tail price imo, I would not know what to do with that amount lol. :-)))))