Spymaster - out of interest, do you hold your GGP shareholding through IG nominees in addition to your spread bets?
I have a large GGP shareholding through IG nominees. I don't use leveraged positions at all. Just before the GGP share price took off, IG called me out of the blue and suggested I sold my shares and opened my position as a spread bet instead. I'm interested to know whether you had anything similar, given your large position in this co? The timing of IG's actions seems more than a little coincidental.
Decent interview with Brent Cook from last week where he touches upon Newcrest's capabilities to mine at depth and the how companies working to delineate economic deposits are worth a great deal of money, especially given the difficulty finding new large deposits these days - very relevant to GGP, reaffirms the potential for a great deal of further value here and worth a watch:
I modelled a few scenarios so I could have an idea roughly what share price might be achievable as drilling results are released.
There is no provision under the UK takeover code to pay the minimum of the year high.
The 30% rule means a holder must make generally a mandatory offer for all the shares if they acquire >30% shareholding. There is no requirement to get to this level first in order to table a bid for a company.
Mariana is an interesting comparable here - it held 30% of a world-class asset. Was bought out by Sandstorm for >80% premium. Not sure we're anywhere near that yet though.....more drill results and resource estimation required first.
Antigua - as djryan has mentioned before, GH will have less scope to comment on BH due to the type of drilling. The shallow RC drilling at BH will have generated bags of rock, not the straight cores produced from the deep diamond drilling at havieron. The different communication style is to be expected and is nothing to worry about.
FullBoots....... another de-ramping hogwash peddler. Your posting history says it all.
The Newcrest CEO's interview on Bloomberg 2 days ago makes clear the GGP JV is a key project for them - clearly he wouldn't have mentioned Havieron multiple times if they're planning to walk from the project.
Toze - I get your point and you're absolutely correct of course. It's quite obvious that someone holding a notifiable interest in an AIM stock will likely affect the price by offloading a significant proportion of their holding, as one holder here appears to have done / be doing.
Hopefully news on core visuals from Havieron will be published soon. Last year the second drilling campaign at Havieron commenced on 17 Sep 18 and an RNS in respect of visual core observations was published 1 Oct 18 - a gap of 15 days in total. This year Newcrest kicked off their maiden drilling campaign at Havieron on 22 May 19, so 15 days would take us to tomorrow, 5 Jun 19. On this basis, I'm expecting updates to start being released very soon if Greatland stick to a similar pattern of reporting.
Apologies if already posted - GGP have included some images of the IP results in this release on their website. Definitely worth a look as it seems they have some interesting secondary targets too.
Can't even be bothered to proof read their own accounts before issuing. No great surprise. The notes are mis-numbered - 'Basis of preparation' and 'Going concern' notes are both numbered '2', which has screwed up their references in the text. Also, in their 'Loss per ordinary share' note, it says 'Error! Reference source not found.'. What's this?! How can we trust the numbers if they can't get the basics correct?
They've got one mine. No massive consolidation exercise, no super complex group accounts. The FD is paid >£300k p.a. and this is what we get!!! Arghhh!
They look like sells given the times and prices. Sells could be for any number of reasons - annoyingly I've had to sell a small chunk of shares today to free up funds for lawyers to defend an unexpected legal threat from a company which has issued legal threats against me trying to get hold of a premium .com domain name that I own. Point being, life happens and sometimes people have to sell at inopportune times.
We've just seen NC reconfirm their commitment to Havieron, so everything looks good here. Just a few weeks wait until two drilling campaigns are underway in Tasmania and the Patterson, then game on.
I've made good money on AIM in the past but you've got to accept there's a high probability of significant share price volatility and short term paper losses. Things can turn on a dime and there's no reason not to expect good upside here over the coming months as news flow heats up.
JerseyCrew, I agree that ancellation may well be the explanation but Gervaise signaled that drilling would commence end March / early April in his interviews with these booked rigs, so it would have been helpful to clarify the position after the Newcrest farm out was announced.
In March 2019, after the Newcrest farmout, Callum said "we've also had a lot of interest from a lot of other players globally within the industry", so I tend to agree with the theory that GGP may be in active discussions regarding farm-out of other license areas in the Patterson, and can't say much about drilling plans for Scallywag and BH at present. Looking forward to an update very soon.
Spymaster - I'm not sure why you seem to be making repeated snidy comments about other people's posts? If someone makes a post clarifying something others appear to have missed, or makes a fun hyperbolic comment, I really don't see that it's a problem (especially if you are holding ~30m shares as you previously claimed?).
Condorlini - good point about investors' own personal reasons for investing or needing cash.
Here's a related anecdote re AIM resource investing - I was heavily invested in Mariana Resources between late 2015 until their takeover by Sandstorm. Mariana had some vague similarities with GGP - they held a minority 30% of their main project and were reliant on their partner for field work. They were also subject to the whims of the AIM market. Despite some world class drill results, I have vivid memories of several significant share sales by their Technical Director, Eric Roth (who is very well regarded in the mining space). He sold a big chunk for about one third of the eventual takeover price and ended up holding relatively little equity in the company. This was a major concern and almost resulted in me selling my holding, but I held on because their discovery story was so compelling (like my view of GGP). During an investor presentation someone asked their CEO, Glen Parsons, why Eric was dumping shares - Glen evaded and mumbled something about Eric needing money for personal expenses and school fees for his kids. I expected the worst but the share price went up circa 200% from there over the next 12-18 months (albeit with a lot of volatility). Moral of the story is life happens and sometimes people or small investment funds need to sell (as Condorlini stated). GGP is one of the more liquid mining stocks on AIM, which may make it a favourable candidate to sell to raise funds in a pinch.
GH mentioned in one of his interviews about NC having to apply for relevant government permits/licences as they will be "Manager" of the tenement blocks. Maybe this is partly responsible for a delay in announcement of next steps?
Future Hav results might be very slow - will be in Newcrest's interests to keep these under wraps as long as possible, like Rio did for Winu, so Newcrest is in an advantageous position to negotiate on similar nearby targets if they decide to try and do more deals.