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Morning Tim (from UK anyway). Many thanks for 'playing the game' and sharing your thoughts. Very interesting. Just shows how some of the factors can have such huge variability (up and down). Lets hope the bottle is a Nebuchadnezzar and not a milk bottle!!
A bit more fun Saw this Jerry - https://www.mockupworld.co/free/wine-bottle-with-label-mockup/ Vertical, plunging to the SE! That's something like what Havieron looks like down 400m in the Paterson Range, a buried wine bottle! The cap is up towards the Havieron camp . You can see why HAD 15 went underneath any HGZ - it needed to hit between -300 to 600RL - and HAD16 missed altogether. You can also see why those new collars to the NW (shallow) & SW (deep) make sense. I hope that helps.
JS, for fun only, not to be taken too seriously! Okay, H is a cylinder. Let’s say 100m radius (Sprott was 80m) and, let’s be optimistic, 1200m long. Area of the circle is 31,400 x 1200m x SG of 3 = 113mt of rock. Assume lowball 2g/t Au equiv gives 7.3moz. 150m radius and strike length of 1.5km gives ~20moz. (You can see why the stepouts add tonnes very quickly.) Attribute USD100/oz – upper end of recent deals I think – gives 30% of H (7.3moz) a value of ~170m Pounds, about 4.25p which is pretty close to the Numis price target. Be generous because there is no CAPEX for a plant and allow $200/oz on a dreamtime 20moz then GGP’s stake is worth ~925m Pounds!!! But we’re dreaming.
Although I am no geo or tech guy I understand what you are saying I think. But despite that there must be some way, however improbable, that x g/t over x metres over this wide an area at this depth gets x million ozs, which gets x pence per share. Just interested in the methodology of the guessing game!
JS, I don't think the SP can get to 10p. It seems to me that the discussion on this board is missing the clear signal from NCM about the high grade zones. It has moved on from the Sprott model so I have stopped my calcs because no one knows true widths and what eventual grade NCM will target. When they are seeing results like HAD18 - ~100m at 4.5g/t Au - HAD14 (75m at 4g/t Au equiv.), HAD12 (139m at 3.5g/t Au equiv) etc. I'm sure their eyes light up. Sure the low grade envelope can be mined years down the track but why truck <1g/t material to Telfer when you could be trucking ore at 3 or 4x that value. In the absence of assays all we can do is watch, via PGs satellite images, the direction in which NCM is drilling and how close-spaced the collars are. Look at HAD12. Would you prefer that intersection or 500m at <1g/t? So lets watch NCM chase the HGZs deeper - up to 2km downhole now? - and then it will need to decide if a decline is needed to keep chasing this steeply plunging cylinder to its end. As soon as NCM thinks it has found the limits of the HGZs we should see infill drilling really ramp up - 25m spacings - and Paddy's images will have black dots all over them. Or, drilling will have gone u/g sometime next year and all our fun will be taken away from us!
Hi timid. So just for fun how would you calc metal in ground to get to a 10p sp? The variables being total ozs and price in the ground, plus the exchange rate of course. Would you use a % of au price or just a flat $x?
If you think 20p, you will be needing a lot more than 10myn ozs plus almost certainly some other prospects to come in. Based on where other companies trade based on metal in the ground. Not impossible, but not basis ‘just’ 10myn ozs.
Mercedesman, at 10million ozs this is 30% of a 15 billion dollar resource out of the ground. I'm sure an investment bank would be happy to front GGP 30 % of the mining costs for a windfall of that proportion. GLA
Paddy thanks for that post, ive been meaning to do the math on that but didnt get the time.
For everyone else who’s moaning, get a grip, you snowflakes want everything handed to you on a plate.....yesterday!
If you havn’t concluded a rough, realistic timescale here yet your well behind the curve.
Im expecting a rise between Nov 29th- Dec 15th based on the likelyhood of us getting a BIG update, should get us to 2-3p on news, probz drop back a bit after that as the traders exit, and then the biggy next summer which will re-rate this way beyond what a lot of the ill researched believe is possible. 10-20p based on 25-30% of a 1.5bn resource, the market is oblivious to this until its in bold capitals on an RNS, someone mentioned EUA earlier, same thing, they had that resource for ages, suddenly a few banks get involved and it 10bags over night.
So in short, if you cant hack a 6-12 month wait for a 10x payday, jog along, put a little trade on early december and take your 20% on the next update and then bog off until Q1-Q2, reading the winey posts is getting boring.
I’d be happy if the fickle ones left now and dropped the sp even more, 15p is a 10x from here, but its a 15x bagger if you fools allow me to top up at 1p! : )
I think the nature of the company (exploration) and the noise about another year for a reserve estimate are keeping some trading However there will be a key point that the institutions will have seen enough to load up. This is the point when the value will start to be recognised I think this point is not far away possibly 1st Qtr 2020. This in my mind will also bring in a new set of investors and finally clear out the 10% crew. cheers Aurora
Sadly, the lesson I (and many others have learnt of late) is that it needs to be "EPIC" in Capitals draped in naked dancers... wrapped in ribbons & bows and covered in flickering fairy lights for the MM's and The Market to even notice it Paddy.
Otherwise it will be just more of the same old... same old... until some kind of buy-in / buy-out!
Newcrest Quarterly Update - Thursday 25th July Newcrest Second Update - Tuesday 10th September - 47 days between Newcrest Quarterly Update - Thursday 24th October - 44 days between Newcrest Fourth Update - ????? Newcrest Quarterly Update - Thursday 30th January - 98 days between
If Newcrest stick to a similar time scale then I would expect the next set of results sometime in the week ending 15/12 with somewhere between 20-30 results - it's gonna be epic one way or the other.