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Thank you Tom. Agreed1
Like I'm going to base my research and GGP sp rating on Clayton's view? LOL!
MMM hi, well spotted thanks. The Numis rating is 15p as the note states. Primrose investments tweeted stating 28.7p on an un-risked basis, not Numis. Well that's the way I read it and why I asked the question in the first place.
ATB
Tom :-)))
taken from a reliable source:
PaddyGall
Posts: 3,561
Price: 12.50
No Opinion
RE: Numis
12 Jun '20
The original Tweet from Primorus sates 'NIce upgrade to 15p.....28.7p on an unrisked basis.
I'm assuming they have calculated that Havieron is worth 28.7p and then put some form of risk weighting on the calculation to arrive at their recommendation to their clients.
https://twitter.com/priminvestments/status/1271387329236815877?s=20
Home » Reports » Greatland Gold plc 26.6% Potential Upside Indicated by Numis
Greatland Gold plc 26.6% Potential Upside Indicated by Numis
Article by: Amilia Stone 30th April 2020
Greatland Gold plc with EPIC/TICKER (LON:GGP) 0 has had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates’ with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ today by analysts at Numis. Greatland Gold plc are listed in the Basic Materials sector within AIM. Numis have set a target price of 12 GBX on its stock. This indicates the analyst now believes there is a potential upside of 26.6% from the opening price of 9.48 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has increased 4.78 points and increased 5.88 points respectively. The 1 year high share price is 9.8 GBX while the 52 week low for the share price is 1.45 GBX.
Nap I think you will find its Not a 28p value but a 26% potential upside.
https://www.***************************/greatland-gold-plc-26-6-potential-upside-indicated-by-numis/412816820#:~:text=Greatland%20Gold%20plc%20with%20EPIC,12%20GBX%20on%20its%20stock.
The latest GGP sp official broker rating, to my knowledge, was Numis @ 15p!
Where did an 'unrisked' 28p come from?
The last numis one i think, it was one of the last given by either of the brokers. 15 p current and 25-28p unrisked. In sure if you look deep enough you will find it and that was based from memory on just ider 5 mil ounces so around 5-6 p unrisked ( defo mining) per mil ounces. So im sure you can work the rest out
Why forgive you? Please advise napthman1 which broker gave that rating, and when?
napthman hi,
Forgive me for asking but where are you seeing "Broker note is already 28p unrisked." Thanks.
Broker note is already 28p unrisked. Id be hoping for higher than that with the new drill results but they may need alot more drill results to work the extra out just yet
TMT hey,
Yes totally agree and lets really hope for some great news next week. As Paddy says "sit on the hands" so I am with numb fingers lol. Also agree it will be very foolish to trade these next week and for anyone to sell is total madness IMO. I am hoping for a Broker note val of 20/22 p at least !!!!
ATB & a great w/e
Tom :-))))
Hi, Tom. You are right about Numis. Hannam & Partners did, too.
It's not locked on that we'll get anything new out of NCM this week, but I suspect they are waiting until after that. Since it could drop any day, and since it could move the market when it does, it would be foolish for anyone to be playing trading games on this one -- you wouldn't want to be out of it when the broker note comes.
WF & TMT hi,
Thanks for your reply ! makes sense. The reason for my question is that Numis did give a valuation based on current progress earlier in the year. ANd that went down very well indeed. Maybe as news is due soon, could be the reason for the delay now.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912064/numis-boosts-greatland-gold-target-price-by-50-following-recent-well-received-drilling-update-912064.html
Have a great w/e.
ATB
Tom :-)
LOL. No Welsh blood so we aren't twins, I guess.
TMT, snap!
Concurrent typing, methinks.
@TomE
They could do that. But their clients who follow their advice won't be pleased if they get it badly wrong, and significant news may be coming very, very soon.
Their goal for a broker note is not to make GGP private investors happy, their goal is to look good to their clients.
Tom, it's all about risk and reputation. Their clients will make investment decisions based on what their broker says.
If they get it wrong, not good for them. I expect that the risk of getting it wrong, this close to NCM's results announcement, will be high enough to prevent them releasing their valuation(s). When that risk reduces, they will release.
Why can they not give a valuation on what is "known at this point of time" after all they are the experts in their field, other have already given valuation on what was known at the time.
What is the point of giving a valuation after all is known and results are out ? We need a valuation set now not in 3 months time. Just asking !!
It's an interesting one, because if they come out before NCM, and get it right, they could look really good to their clients.
I think it is likely to GGP's benefit if they come out after the NCM meeting. I expect discussion of Hav at that meeting to give a boost that will take out any resistance and squeeze any shorts that are lurking, and if a broker note follows soon after, it could become a momentum thing.
Well, after is much more likely. How soon after is open to debate.
To be honest, any broker valuation for us, without a published MRE is them sticking a wet finger up in the air to see where the wind is blowing. It will, in the absence of hard data, come with a high (50%) risk factor.
We as investors, can allow ourselves to consider a more de-risked position, but the brokers will likely wait until sometime after NCM show a bit more of the picture.
Of course, is NCM says an MRE will be reported in a month's time, there will be a further delay.
Morning WelshFalcon
I didn’t mean for it to come over as a conspiracy theory that was in fact the last thing on my mind.
I can also understand your thinking and comments with the first part regarding waiting to see what Newcrest announce And probably more feasible but you like me think we will get one after their AGM.
944T
"Newcrest have asked"..... Really? Another conspiracy!
No, what is highly likely is that the brokers have made their initial calculations and are simply waiting to see what NCM come up with first. They don't want egg on their faces buy over or under estimating the size of the prize and having to issue a revision to their projections.
They don't need to be asked to hold off, it is simply a sensible timing for them to judge themselves.
I’m sure that like many I’ve been waiting for the new Broker valuation and wondering why we hadn’t had an update then I thought.
Do you think this might already be done and waiting to be posted but Newcrest have asked just to hold fire another week so that they can have their AGM and SB can do his open mike informing everyone of the possible gold find at Haverion and their forward plans.
This would do a few things in my eyes.
1 - It would only strengthen GGP broker valuation .
2 - set a clear path of what Newcrest intend to do with regards to start mining.
3 - It gives Newcrest and SB the cued os of the release.
4 - Can only add strength to the SP.
Just my thoughts, because then come October I think we will get the MRE, have results from Scally and gold on the up up up. Katching
944T.