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Boyo.....
"Decided to re-load if it drops back to lower 80s or sell some more north of 98p - but all depending on the chart and apparent direction of the market. I've now got a limit buy set and don't intend to sell today unless the price goes stupid high"
So?
Close around 110 not 120
Afternoon fireworks are getting to be a bit routine around here...
https://invst.ly/qbn30
I sold some at the top late yesterday, nearly sold some more this morning but was too slow out of bed. Decided to re-load if it drops back to lower 80s or sell some more north of 98p - but all depending on the chart and apparent direction of the market. I've now got a limit buy set and don't intend to sell today unless the price goes stupid high. Doing other stuff for now. Since I reduced my capital exposure to G and moved more into RDS I'm much more relaxed about G - what will be will be and I'll happily trade the volatility, which is nowadays more prevalent here than GKP.
Are you in out or shaking it all about Boyo? Lots of volatility and trading opportunities. That blast to 116p was crazy yet today Genel better with payments and oil price up a notch and struggling circa 90p. It’s like tossing a coin in this market
I'd have to agree with you on that Leem.
Apart from the gung-ho bullish brigade early on, G certainly isn't breaking upward from around 90p this morning. Quite understandable too....the world is awash with oil it isn't using. Shares in storage facilities is what we should be looking for....
The OP apparently got boosted (temporarily? ) by Trump's vague comments yesterday about the need for some sort of US - KSA - Russia oil production deal - now there's a reliable source upon which to base your investment strategy.
One mechanism the US has for controlling national output is the Railroad Commission of Texas, interesting opinion piece here:
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2020/03/27/Hold-My-Beer-I-Can-Fix-This
Genel looking better, don’t think that the market or oil is in anyway out the woods yet, so it’s a balancing act of prospects vs market. Typically this follows market sentiment
We are going in the right direction but needs oil price to be much higher than the current level..$40+ to get the SP to 130+ unless a bid or gas comes along..
Good day today and more to come imv..just a few days more to confirm its strength to move much higher.....oil price big player for now
Looks as if the algos and robots don’t know what to do and are attempting to keep a lid on it again
Fun and games in casino hour, bunks. G js back on the 'up' escalator, although those red lines might need to be tweaked as the day progresses: https://invst.ly/qbftn
Keep an eye on the G:OP ratio: above 3.5 has got some optimism built in, over 4 and the oxygen is getting a bit thin.
Yes boyo - Oslo an hour ahead of us, I was rather excited at the time, although they were up 9% on a day of carnage everywhere is fairly suspect - good to see them doing well today too
Interesting that the pull back from G’s sharp move up to 92 yesterday (1/4/20) coincided with a similar move by Brent, RDS and Chevron. The Oslo market was closed by that stage so the DNO price line is constant here, in the 5minute chart of the day. Perhaps G might otherwise have held on to 90p. Could be interesting today....
https://invst.ly/qbbhx
G has been the disappointing performer of the pack since Friday's close (unless you happen to have scalped some profits on today's high):
https://invst.ly/qaqgb
Unless last Wednesday's peak was indicative of something significant, it was inevitable that the gap between G and GKP and DNO would close up - and that's what seems to be happening.
Currently settling around 90p methinks - unless more buyers step forward and provided OP doesn't wobble.
OK, Here’s a fairly definitive reality check on G's sp in relation to others for this month:
https://invst.ly/qabqa
It's the usual comparison for the month to date but with a FTSE100 line and also two flavours of Brent: ICE for June (which shortly becomes the LCO Future) and XBR (NY Brent) OANDA (regrettably not available here) is roughly in the middle. The prices would ordinarily converge again over the next couple of days.
G can be seen to have dropped smartly this morning but (to my surprise) recovered half of the fall, steadying at a level similar to before last Wednesday’s brief spike. This is encouraging as it suggests the market it ‘relaxed’ about G’s current sp around 85 even at historically low levels of OP, so maybe $54 won't be revisited?
It also suggests no real concern about KRG payment issue, as the sp:Brent ratio is around 3.5x which is healthier than it was for most of 2019. That last point is a mystery to me but, clearly the market isn’t as gloomy as me.
Against the FTSE, G has obviously been pretty erratic but since the FY report has recovered rather more than the other KRI producers though rather less than the majors, having edged down in comparison to them today.
'......guess they could make some bargain acquisitions and get away from KRG.'
I wonder what shareholders would make of that, Leem? Sticking cash which might be needed to survive into a 'distressed' company when the cause of the distress is still present and potentially getting deeper. Sounds like a recipe for self destruction to me.
Market is never logical Boyo. Robots and charts are all that matter these days. Genel have plenty of cash at least (right now anyway) and guess they could make some bargain acquisitions and get away from KRG
Looking at G’s performance relative to RDS, Brent and FTSE100 since mid February:
https://invst.ly/qa36u
there is quite a strong correlation between G and RDS with a couple of clear exceptions:
The drop to 54p immediately before the FY results.
The combined drop on Friday and today.
When viewed in this context, the rise up to 116 on Wednesday was consistent with RDS’s behaviour - although it placed G at an extraordinarily high price relative to Brent.
Because it is reasonably imminent and large in relation to the current sp, the dividend declaration arguably added 10p to G’s price - always remembering that this will come back off on ex-div day.
Meanwhile OP has dropped about $2 since G was 54p and the likelihood of KRG payment resumption has, if anything, deteriorated.
So, if 54p represented the ex-div bottom for G nearly a fortnight ago and Brent has dropped a further $2 since and KRG payments are at least as distant as ever, why should we logically expect the sp to be higher than 64p today? Bilgin have been buying, of course, but that didn’t stop the price falling previously did it ?
Wednesday was not the first occasion that we’ve seen G suddenly run up to a height and then get rapidly dropped. It reached an obviously suspect price that day and when exactly did news first start to circulate about the Lebanon Bank problem? The S&P article is dated 25th. G’s is an easy price to push and we know people were buying sufficiently to do so….(and I don’t mean people properly declared in RNS’s)
If we look at the comparison chart for the month to date:
https://invst.ly/q9hbw
we can see how this latest sp malarkey has left G poised in no-man’s land between the majors (RDS and Chev) 25% down and the other KRI companies (GKP and DNO) about 55% down, whilst G, at 90p, is about 40% down over the month -exactly in the middle. Maybe 10p of that could be attributed to the divi, which would still leave G at 80p - about 45% down. So it’s about 15p above equivalence with GKP after taking the div value out.
Will the latest shenanigans leave G at a premium to the other KRI companies? It does get rated more highly by some analysts but, after this week, who do you trust? Spikes and rapid fall-backs are a bit too common around G’s stock for my liking, And I hope I’ve already made it clear that I don’t consider that these are in any way connected to the company itself.
And on the issue of KRG payments, all I will say is that when you are clinging to a rope after a disaster, the last thing you need is to find yourself being hauled up by a crippled helicopter.
I’m still invested in G. But it certainly isn’t my main rescue vehicle from COVID19’s impact on my investments.
Well said bunks!
Dodge, they didn’t do enough over the last 18 months to grow the business or the share price. They bought Sarta and then went to sleep. Steadied the ship. The results were good, and the management team a lot more capable than what is reflected in the share price. Oil prices and KRG being absolute ****** is no fault of genels management. Firmly believe that if they were more active and got investors on side and into the story then this might be knocking around the £1.50 region now. They are too conservative. Take things like payments. They should be moving the earth to get this sorted or have a contingency in place for when (not if) this happens. Different revenue stream or measures to protect the share price. When the KRG do this it craters the share price. They have had many years to come to terms with this. Silence and wish washy statements is the reason this gets smashed
oh - and please have a bit of respect for all human beings on here, humour can play a vital part in dealing with difficult situations but please don't resort to personal insults, especially not at this time.
That's not directed at anyone in particular btw
Last Friday close was 83.8p - UT 90p on the nose - how about that for in the balance.
Bit tense going into the weekend and early next week but it pales into insignificance compared to all affected by the blimin Virus - Stay safe all. GL
well we're up 8pts on the week people...... does it feel like more or less?
Make up your mind ( clown emoji )... I thought it was the management...
Good trading Boyo. Genel would be a fantastic business. It’s the payments and oil price that is holding it back. They need clarity