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Pappi, apologies, i missed your reply to me the other day.
-Of course you are right about the power plants currently under construction ,but not yet producing any power.--I did not mean to infer that there were only two power plants in total in Bangla, only that at this time there are only two currently producing any power.
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-As you said there are a number of plants that are still being constructed, and one or two are near completion (although some of the others may still get cancelled).----------but how can those plants can make any sort of forward plan in this current climate.
-They have seen the price of the raw material they need, rise by 350% in the last year alone, --that must have thrown all of their projected figures straight in the bin---and that is if they can secure ongoing supplies at all--------
-Will this unstable fuel supply lead to others walking away from their proposed projects?
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-I hear what you say about "using own coal" (from Phulbari)---but where ever it comes from, the price is still too volatile to be able to make any long term plans, and even if we got the go-ahead at Phulbari next year, --how long would it take before we could start supplying those plants (at least 2/3 years).
-Using our coal "in house" for our own power plant, would have been the best solution as it would have cut out most of the variables ( we could have fixed all the costs and tariffs for years to come)--------so we really need those PC plants to make using Phulbari coal in Bangladesh viable.
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-Here's that article that started this conversation.
-https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/news/govt-scraps-10-coal-power-projects-2118089
Bring a few bags next week
Looking forward shortly for RNS
Hi Redeyes
In 2020 there were 29 proposed new coal fired power plants, due to rising costs of coal and difficulties acquiring coal to run them (china had bought up most forward contracts for coal supply) earlier this year there was an announcement that 10 of those where construction had been delayed or not commenced would be cancelled. We haven't heard much more around that because there would have been issues with breach of contract and what it might cost the Government to cancel those (issues mentioned at the time) there are still coal powered plants being built, the most obvious that comes to mind of course is Rampal which I believe is due to come online soon if it hasn't already. I did have a list from a BD publication of what was still being built but I'm on a different computer tonight.
If, and I repeat if, China really was going to stop any financing of Coal Powered Plants from Commercial organisations (like the USA does on certain deals with Iran) and I don't believe they will (saying and doing are very different) it would still make mining the Phulbari project a attractive proposition for the BD government, own coal, reduced balance of payments, high calrofic content, green savings on not having to ship internationally, I'm pretty sure the company will have looked at new electric trucks for the project, could even be seen as a 'green' coal project. Some of this is IMHO some is fact according to Google and the press.
One doesn't preclude the other, you can be the Financial Director of a company and a non exec Director of another. It's not unusual and I know from personal experience, If James had stopped being an non exec director we would have had a RNS.
From the January RNS:
The Company is also pleased to announce the appointment to the Board, with immediate effect, of James Hobson as a Non-Executive Director.
Can’t see any other RNS to say he has left and also his LinkedIn profile shows his with GCM
He’d already left lol.
He hasn’t left the building , check his profile out .
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1632510952744901000/in-brief-amte-power-appoints-james-hobson-as-finance-head.aspx
Looks like James hobson has already left the building
That's it then.. We should expect an RNS this week to advise that the dream is over.
Bank of China Ltd on Friday said it would no longer provide financing for new coal mining and coal power projects outside China, as well as in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, from the fourth quarter of this year.
The announcement from the state-run lender, which *excludes projects* that have already been signed off on, follows President Xi Jinping's pledge on Tuesday
Morning Pappi----- good to hear from you too.
-Nobody could dispute the value of the deposit at Phulbari (about $100 bill as of today), of clean high calorific coal, but Bangladesh are not using it--------why.
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-Well, despite all the talk of new power plants, Bangl has only one or two actual working plants-the rest were just proposals, and a lot of them have never gotten off the ground and have been dropped ---(see my post below from a few weeks back).--So unless things change and Bangla starts building a lot more coal powered plants, then they could well be a net exporter of coal.
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-Easy to get distracted. Over the years so many plants had been proposed and approved, that you got the impression Bang had lots of producing ,coal powered plants----not so.
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-At present they only have 600MW from Payra and 525MW from Barra---that's all.
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Lots of smaller fiddly proposed plants, that never get off the ground, is typical of the scatter gun approach Bangla has taken over the years.
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-ONE mega project of up to 6,000 MW solves all their problems-----Phulbari-what else.
Hi Redeyes, good to see you here, while a valid point lets not forget that currently all proposed/being built coal fired plants in Bangladesh are dependent on imported coal, of less calorific value and quality than the coal in the ground at Phulbari. They don't need to export it they have more than enough domestic capacity coming online that would utilise it....and they would be less dependent on imports and massively fluctuating prices.
The conversation about what the Chinese Premiere has/has not said is all just a distraction. The coal is there, it's massively valuable, its strategically valuable, its even greener than importing coal nothing has changed in terms of the value of the assets.
redeyesmines, I think you have hit the nail on the head there. China has not committed to building no more coal power stations within it's borders and built new ones at the rate of one per week last year......all those (and the ones they continue to build) will need feeding with ALOT of coal.
So Phulbari's feasibility is not solely reliant on the power station being built in the area and could be an amazing cash cow for the GOB on export taxes , etc.
Once this realisation hits the SP should rebound nicely.
It's been about 30 months since the JV was announced, and we are still waiting for PC to sign into it.
-The last we heard from them, they were trying to get a larger slice of the pie (the coal, the mining, and the power generation), and the MOU kept getting extended.
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-A thought that crossed my mind, ---and one I put to the company---was whether PC were trying to starve us out (we have no cash left to carry on), and take the mining license off our hands for a pittance.---------------obviously the Co disputed this--well they would, wouldn't they.
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-So were does that leave us and PC after this latest statement from the Chinese Gov.---
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-The coal is still there in the ground, but we potentially, do not have any new proposal we can now put to the GOB, to hopefully let us mine.-------but that coal is increasingly more valuable.
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-As of this morning, the price of coal has risen by 270% from it's Sept low, which means the coal in the ground at Phulbari is now worth over $100 Bill if it is extracted and NOTHING if it is left where it is.
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---This will not be lost on PC/Chinese Gov.
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-Although Bangladesh does use some coal, the biggest users are China, and if "no new power plants are built overseas" (in Bangla at Phulbari), then Bangladesh could become a net Exporter of coal, ---and who would want it-------China.
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-Whatever the Chinese Gov say, and however long PC delay signing any sort of agreement with us-you can almost feel them circling like Vultures around this coal field.
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-Will we sell it to them ??