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"The original aim was the restoration of the 2 separatist republics of Donbas within their full administrative borders."
Really?
There have never been 2 separatist republics of Donbas. This is a false construct propounded by Russia using the same illogical excuse as the annexation of Crimea. Namely, that because the majority of the population of these areas (according to Russia) are Russian-speaking, they are de-facto Russian territory, and the inhabitants are entitled to be "protected against anti-Russian agencies" by Russia, using force, if neccessary. This is the same excuse rolled out by the Nazis to annexe the Sudetenland and we all know how that ended. It was the same excuse used when Russia "liberated" South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia in 2008.
Crimea is still part of Ukraine, regardless of Russia's illegal annexation which they sought to justify by a ridiculous "referendum" which apparently proves that Crimea is Russian territory. If it wasn't so tragic it would be hilarious.
Russia has invaded a sovereign nation, waged war upon its citizens, destroyed huge tracts of civilian and commercial property, destroyed infrastructure, hospitals, schools, roads and railways and sought to bring about regime change without a single care as to what the rest of the world thinks because they have got away with it before and Putin believed the west and their allies would just stand and watch as his glorious invaders brought the troublesome neighbour to heel. Except this time he was wrong.
His actions have collapsed the Russian economy and will eventually collapse his entire nation. China and India are taking everything they can get from Russia at pound shop prices. They are filling their tanks at Russia's (and our) expense.
I've just returned from a few weeks in Moscow and I have seen what's going on. Young Russians are angry. The majority do not support the war and they do not believe that Putin has any interest in them. They have been used to travelling the world, having money to spend on western fashions and european luxuries. Now they have nothing, except decades of international condemnation and being isolated again. On every street there are huge posters with pictures of military people with the slogan "Glory to our Russian Heroes!" and every TV channel spits out 24 hour rolling propaganda justifying the "special military operation". There are hours of discussions where panels of dupes rage and rant against the west, interspersed with footage of so-called Ukraine atrocities. Whenever a Russian is killed in action there are pictures of the person's family (supposedly) wringing their hands, weeping and wailing, railing against the barbarity of the Ukrainian nazis (according to all TV and media Ukraine is a de-facto nazi regime) but not a single mention or reference is ever made about the Ukrainian casualties, except when the media roll out the laughable fairy tale that the Ukrainians are murdering their own people. Russia cannot win thi
Would anyone be willing to stop fighting and agree a peace when the invaders still occupy your territory, especially when the invading regime has just about run out of steam and is in deep political peril back home?
JohnNth - I agree with you regarding Russian war aims.
The original aim was the restoration of the 2 separatist republics of Donbas within their full administrative borders. This hasn’t changed.
The problem with Russia declaring a ceasefire is that it can’t be a unilateral one. Ukraine and its western backers still ostensibly have maximalist demands. Peace will take a willingness to negotiate on both sides. There is little sign of that from either side given the hot headed rhetoric and volume of weapons being pumped into Ukraine.
Minecheck...I'm broadly in agreement with your analysis, but I don't see Russia reaching as far out as Dniper cos it would be too bigger area to control with majority ethnic Ukrainian population as they move further west. I think Russia wants full control of Donbas/Crimea and a bit more like the Khersion region for negotiating purpose. They will cease fire as soon as they have captured Donbas. There are already reports from the Kherson region that when Ukranian troops starts firing, the Russians respond with fire, and when Ukraine troops stops firing Russians stop as well.
paupucel...you say time is on the side of Ukraine; actually nothing could be further from the truth. Russia is winning the economic war and as a result the world is losing due to economic sanctions. There is a limit to what the world can endure and sacrifice for Ukraine. Further, Ukraine is largely supported by the US, and there are mid term elections coming up in few months, in which Republicans are expected to do well. Less than one third Republicans are in support of US providing aid to Ukraine; they see Ukraine as a european problem. It is the US congress/senate who signs off the money and the President then makes the decision to actually give it to Ukraine.
Let’s try to put a few things straight.
1. I’m not a professional investor and never claimed to be. I’m a realist not a ‘supporter’ of Russia or Ukraine. This isn’t football. It’s geo-politics. FXPO is a price taker when it comes to geo-politics. Investment decisions therefore need to be based on reality not hope.
2. Ukraine does not have the support of the whole world as Papucel bizarrely claimed. Indeed, it has the support of a minority of the world, mostly Europe, North America and a few Pacific states.
3. Most of the world is de facto neutral in this conflict. Part of the reason the West’s sanctions have been disastrously self harming is that only the West is prepared to shoot itself in the foot. Russia’s alleged ‘isolation’ is simply a propaganda lie. Russia is not sanctioned by most states. Fact.
4. US and UK have intentionally created a false narrative of threat inflation to justify the risky and self harming actions they have taken. There is literally zero evidence that Russia wants to re-create the Soviet Union much less invade further into Europe. Indeed, Putin has repudiated this nonsense.
5. But threat inflation creates unfortunate side effects. It makes diplomacy harder. And the absence of diplomacy is bad news for FXPO which sits in a war zone.
6. Anyone thinking ordinary Russians now despise Putin and want to join the ‘western club’ has consumed far too much propaganda. Russia is a regional nuclear armed power with different geo-strategic interests to the West. It isn’t going to fold, radically change, or surrender those interests. Note that geo strategy is founded on geography. History repeats because geography can’t be changed.
7. Ukraine will always face its larger neighbour to the east. The current Russophobic regime in Kiev which has engaged in a disastrous war will eventually need to change to one which accommodates geographical reality. That needs diplomacy not war based propaganda based on un-reality.
My view is that people should be aware that western propaganda of great Ukrainian resistance and the power of western support is aimed at western citizens. It shouldn’t, IMO, be factored into rational decision making regarding FXPO.
@Minecheck you are not only an investor but also a military ad political strategist.... WOW .... and a special one who just blame the "western" propaganda rather than looking to the fact that RU is a terrorist criminal state?
Lets look from another perspective: Always in history the invaders lost and it is not long to look back on last 2 WW
You state RU took UK size of UKR.... well RU took the Snake island as well then deserted it as they couldn't service it. Do you have any comprehension at all of the strategic importance of the Snake Island???????
While UKR has the support of the whole world they stand a chance even to take Crimea back as so far all the RU attempts to take control failed. There is a fundamental difference between invading (like DE invaded FR) and maintaining or controlling... Time is on UKR side longer it takes more depleted RU will be and more discontent. You should look to the Ex- Russian federation countries, not s single one supports RU
So Sir try to widen your horizon
If you thinkUkraine stand a chance you're seriously deluded. Russia has taken an area the size of the UK, yet you are questioning their military prowess? Russia haven't even deployed 10% of their army in Donbass.
If all that’s true how come 6 months into the invasion (Special Military Operation) Russia still hasn’t occupied (Liberated) all the Donbas? It’s probably all a clever distraction by Putin and his first rate armed forces before they reorg and take the whole country ?????
Some fantastical predictions in here of imminent Ukrainian victory in Kherson followed by humiliating Russian withdrawal from Donbas.
The western propaganda machine has been hugely successful in mis-leading its populations in an attempt to maintain an economic and proxy military war on Russia.
The only problem is that reality catches up. The sanctions are impacting Europe far more than Russia, and impoverishing your own citizens is not sustainable.
On the battlefield Ukraine has never launched a successful counter offensive, certainly not on the scale of Kherson. Swallow the hopium all you like but it isn’t going to happen. It’s pure propaganda. Kiev’s forces are de-graded, its military still retreating across most fronts, increasing numbers of units are surrendering or simply retreating. On its 4th or 5th round of mobilisations, it is running out of fighting age people.
Objectively, even BBC shows the map. It is Russia which is advancing. There’s nothing that will change that short of NATO direct involvement, and that’s not going to happen.
So yes, delude yourselves if you wish, believe that all will be different thanks to Himars as you once believed the same of Neptunes and javelins. The media will feed you until Washington decides that something must change.
In the interim Ukraine remains a sacrificial pawn to great power politics. London remains willing to plunge its economy into recession and citizens into grotesque fuel poverty. And we’ll all be fed the lies to make us believe it’s all worth it and Ukraine can prevail.
It can’t and it won’t, and Washington knows this. Meanwhile FXPO remains vulnerable. The longer this goes on the more likely Russia will be to continue to the Dniepr.
Conflict cheerleaders should be careful what they wish for.
@Andy - i do not get it. I lived in USSR, I lived in Latvia, I lived in Russia, I listen to Russia state media, I listen to Russia's statements regarding neighbouring countries and "partner countries".
Dude, your "alternate media" is Qanon + poorly translated Russian "stories". Have you tried actual fact check? Do you think I can not read 4 languages? Do you think I can not notice where "stories" appear first and how they migrate over?
@ageens - where to start with this torrent of anti-Rooskie propaganda......
Dude, get some help and then get onto some alternate media other than The Empire of Lies.
and not even posted about how Russians are unique nation, the smartest, the strongest (uubermensch) - claimed by top civil servants and media persons on state's payroll. How all untermensch (rotting West and mid/far East) should submit to fair cleansing force, meanwhile resisting countries - Baltic states, Poland, Czechs should be wiped out.
I do not know, If you heard about Umberto Eco's definitions, Russia hits 14 points.
Power, you are a lit outdated:
1) Nuclear attacks - West indicated, there will be no extermination, instead they will pinpoint decision-maker(s). Nuclear war threats from Russis stopped immediately after such statement as well as China published research showing low power nuclear warheads can be used to destroy bunkers even 2km underground. Before - only North Korea used nuclear weapons as a direct threat.
2)Military intelligence mainly comes from the agents and satellites. Russia's army has low integrity of IT systems. Thats where the planning issues arise.
3) No one except Russia pushed Ukraine into war. Russia's manifesto published in official media stated: Ukraine needs to be erased from world map, every resisting Ukrainian exterminated, their children re-educated, non-resisting Ukrainians - replaced by Russians.
4) Narrative about Russia rebuilding USSR 2.0 with force widely used in state media-sphere. State claiming back Russian empire territories - too. They tried that at start of 2k on Baltic states, but they managed quickly join EU/NATO, actioned on Georgia - 2008, tried Ukraine at 90ties, put started to put real pressure on Ukraine after they gave away all nuclear stocks and long range missiles.
Russia does not protect their entire borders - they spend majority of money on wars and developing Wunderwaffles. Russia relies on nuclear weapon stockpile to protect their borders.
Evanescent- let's see.
1) Nuclear attack? all big talk because that is the end game, No winners. Besides, we are aiming at them with our nuclear weapons too. You don't seem to complain about that.
2) Cyber attacks? Again, we are doing the same to them if not more. How else we gather our military intelligence?
3) Nuclear warheads flying? By pushing Ukraine into war with Russia will stop that and give us 100% security? Nope. In a modern era (in your own words) , only trading and partnership with other countries will give you 100% security.
4) Last but not least, Russia is NOT the Soviet Union. Their economy is the same size as that of the Texas. They don't have enough of resources to invade other countries. Their military spending was around $60 billions a year ( to protect their entire borders) which is the same as the US has spent on UKraine in the last 6 months or so. Their military hardware is not exactly the world class. How can Russia be a threat to the West? maybe it is your imaginations after all.
POWER
"Our national security has never been at risk with Russia."
So those statements threatening nuclear attack from Russia from Putin were not aimed at western Europe or UK?
And the attempted cyber attacks from russian backed entities are figments of the imagination too I suppose?
So the 'buffer' countries as you describe them - how exactly do they stop the nuclear warheads flying past or the cyber attacks - this is a modern era and troops do not necessarily need to march across buffer zones to constitute a risk....
Better still, if CIA and MI6 had left the Ukraine government alone back in 2014. Crimea would still be with Ukraine then. Our national security has never been at risk with Russia. We got Poland, Latvia, Lithuania etc as a buffer zone. i could go on but no time for that.
John- keep up the good work.
POWER...I'm in total agreement with your comment. I'd much rather live in the UK than anywhere in Russia or China, but like you've said, you have to call out when any country is doing right or wrong, and I've siad it right from the begining, this conflict (war) could have been avoided by Zelensky and UKraine cos what Russia was asking for was NOT unreasonable. For those not aware of Russian demands in Feb 2022, they were:
1) Cede Crimea to Russia. I'm not going to elaborate much except to say unlike Alaska (which US bought from Russia in 1867 for $7m), Crimea was given to Ukraine (without any quid pro quo few decades ago) and Russia just wanted it back.
2) Ukraine to drop accession ambitions to NATO membership in line with Minsk agreement
3) Ukraine to provide devolved governmants for the Donbas region (similar to Scotland, Wales, N Ireland assemblies in UK) which are predoninatly ethnic Russian
4) Ukraine to enshrine protection for Russian language and culture in its constitution (Zelensky was going rampant in eliminating all things Russian even in predominantly Russian areas)
5) Reign in on the right wing elements in Eastern Ukraine eg. Azov Batallion which Zelensky embraced and who were making life difficult for ethnic Russians.
If Zelensky could go back in time, he would accept all the above without any hesitation, but things have moved on and he has put himself in a very difficult position. Zelensky miscalculated...it's not going to end well for him.
I don't wonder what the response of mother Russia would have been for their actions against the state has it happened there
Oracleo- Try to tell that to Julian Assange and Edward Snowden and other world leaders that didn't happen to agree with the West.
Chiiliboots- at least you have agreed on something.
Chiliboots aren't these guys lucky to be in a society and country that allows them to criticise the government's actions.
If they want to act like Russia, China, Syria governments are at the same level to US UK and Europe then more fool them and I hope they don't ever have to fine out what the difference really is for citizens.
Anyway Ukraine attack around Kherson is good for us as reduces the likelihood of our Iron getting blocked from going west and also makes it less likely port Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) will be to damaged.
Also good in context of getting peace as if Putin starts to feel he could lose areas as time goes on he's more likely to try and stick instead of thinking the longer it goes the more land he will take.
Has anybody suggested that the ills of the West should be excused?
Or during the committing of said atrocities, did you feel the need to suggest the victims of the piece should not fight back in case they made things worse?
Chilliboots- First of all, Russia is not exactly the same as the Soviet Union. And there are plenty of things i can say negatively about Russia and even China too.. However, the case of Ukraine is not one of them. And if you can't see the same of the West then i am afraid you are bias.
Over to you, John Nth
Some of you are acting like Russia - Ukraine is like a case of chicken or the egg. It isnt. Russia is the aggressor here and JohnNth seems to believe Ukraine should just lie down and take it, while simultaneously talking about the evil west doing the same. Make your mind up
JohnNth- that what i have said too.
Some people here keep thinking the West has always been good. You don't go conquer the world by saying "yes, pls" or " No thank you".