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Please ignore wrong company
Ratty - I see that your post and several others have been censored.
This is far from new as hundreds of posts have been censored although the censored posts have been proven to be the most accurate and fairest analysis of DVRG. The level of censorship is shocking given the incompetence and dishonesty exhibited by the BoD.
All i see is a constant bumping n the ground.Remember selling out at about 23 pence.Why?..
Im ready to re invest.
Really would love Evraz to buy.
FAR could be paying 11.5p dividends in 5 years!
Good LONG term hold - 5 year plus and should be significantly higher.
Another option to look at is HZM....return not as big but a safe bet.
My Daughter has asked me about investing a small lump for my granddaughter for a 5 year period, I know I could look at funds for her but as a shareholder in Ferro I did wonder if it would be a high risk investment for her and if anyone had any ideas where they think the share price will be in 5 years start of 2028, million dollar question I know.
Correction - I made one mistake on the additional options to buy shares at higher prices for the final Balaus construction financing.
I correctly stated the first option to buy additional shares at 25p for a total of US$10 million.
But the second option to buy additional shares at 78p is for a total of up to US$20 million (not 10m).
There is no differentiation between phase 1 and phase 2 in the original agreement.
But I presume VB will exercise the first option of shares at 25p for phase 1 financing and the second option of shares at 78p only for phase 2 financing.
Quite interesting to see in this agreement that VB/Sir Mick considers a substantial s/p rise only in case the financing can be settled.
The $12.6 million invested before that point in exchange for shares at 9p is high risk venture capital for him.
Informative post HG
As for a possible issue of shares for 9p (or 12p)…
it’s a further investment of US$2.5 million for shares at 9 pence when the BFS has been completed - which is not before Q4, as we know since the RNS dated 20 Dec 2022.
Please refer to the original Subscription Agreement for up to US$12.6m with Vision Blue Resources and a limited number of “co-investors”, dated 15 March 2021:
Initial investment of up to $3.1 million
at the issue price of 9p per share.
Further investment rights of up to $9.5 million at the issue price of 9p per share based on the following terms:
- Up to $7.0 million „following the receipt of certain consents in Kazakhstan and Admission“,
- Up to 2.5 million “after completion of the FS“
https://ferro-alloy.com/en/news/181/
$3.1m initial investment plus $7.0m of the “further investment rights” have been made.
To make it clear: VB will invest the last $2.5m in exchange for shares at 9 pence a share only “after completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study”.
As far as I know there is no agreement nor MOU about 12p.
However, the subscription agreement includes a right to buy further shares to be issued at 25p and 78p - but only when the financing process will be launched, that is to say successfully, of course:
“Additional” future investment rights tied to “construction milestones” at the Balausa project of up to $30 million at higher share prices:
a) Right to purchase US$10 million of additional shares at a share price of 25 pence;
b) Right to purchase US$10 million of additional shares at a share price of 78 pence.
„These rights will only be triggered in the event that FAR launches a process to raise capital for the construction of the Balausa Project …“
https://ferro-alloy.com/en/news/181/
Just an assumption; I don't know what they have agreed to. I was surprised by the 9p, though, because I thought I had heard 12p so it makes me wonder about the rest...Vision Blue Resources strategic investment in Ferro-Alloy Resources ...
https://www.vision-blue.com/resource/VisionBlueResourcesstrategicinvestmentinFerro-AlloyResources.pdf
Anyone had any comms from the company?
Todd, is that an assumption or have seen/read anything?
Update?
No reason at all for the dip today - great update form HG - I go back a way with this share and see big potential - Sir Mick is high on the list!!
Probably from shareholder pressure. I guess the shares are held by esg funds which is why they are still up big, while tesla for example first tanked when the esg funds started to pull out.
https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/our-purpose-and-impact/performance-reports.html
Still, not as bad as kfc.... Their customers are the fattest and growth hormone and antibiotic pumped 60 day old chickens with probable msg type compounds are like curry to a p155 head for those people.
In fact its due to self sanctioning rather than any legal sanctions
Leaving due to the fact they can't source beef, it should be noted its not because of any type of sanctions or even reputional considerations.
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/mcdonalds-set-exit-kazakhstan-russian-war-spillover-bloomberg-news-2023-01-04/
Mcfilth is leaving kaz! No selling the big-crack burgler to people who like idealised American food.
By the time Vision Blue invests another 30 million at 9p, you'll be underwater.
Can this just drop to 10p so o can top up
Okay I didn’t read the BFS update in full: Yes, BFS for phase 1 is being delayed half a year until end of 2023. It doesn’t change my conservative outlook.
Happy holidays to all.
So my guess for the end of 2023 is anywhere between the current s/p and 25p.
My reasons:
With delays due to supply chain issues FAR still has steadily modernised the current production as planned, so I am confident the final modernisation step, the nickel processing facility, will be completed in Q1/23.
But I doubt they can reach their production and profit goals. In the interim report Sept 15th they explained poor financial performance with
- logistical issues due to the war,
- “increased trade debtor balances” (i.e. buyers didn’t pay yet) while the company paid for the purchased material in cash “in order to secure a flow of concentrates”,
- “loss payable provision … with respect to product sales that have suffered negative market price movements”
So my guess is 2023 will not be a loss making year but a year of continued hope to improve profitability. At least the improved operations will keep the company afloat without need for further cash raises, and that will keep the share price from falling further.
As for the BFS, the company recently announced to publish by mid 2023 first a BFS part 1 for Balasausquandiq phase 1 development. This is encouraging as it looks like they really push to keep that timeline by now splitting up the BFS in two parts, phase 1 and later phase 2.
However the positive news of the BFS phase 1 will fade with the difficulties to find full financing for a project in Kazakhstan in the current geopolitical situation. Kazakhstan is not Russia, so the sentiment will hopefully change over time, but patience is needed.
So I hold but don’t top up even at these prices.
We FAR shareholders need patience but we also need a second plan to make some gains in the meantime. There are other opportunities with established companies at cheap prices in the market.
I get the reason behind FAR investing in the potential for the higher margin carbon black but realistically what’s the chances of big tyre manufacturers taking this non standard product. For me I’m assuming this won’t progress (and basing my figures on lower price per tonne) however the carbon for smelting at £350 per tonne will generate turnover of $70m. I’ve also assumed there will be no other bi product apart from uranium and obviously vanadium which brings a total turnover of circa $150m, fcf of circa $90. This is all immaterial as everything hinges on profitability of the pilot plant which Nick Bridgen has continuously failed to deliver on, regardless of how much capital investment has been thrown at it. Phase 1 is probably going to require $150m investment and good terms will be based on using the FCF funds from the pilot plant. So many uncertainties currently and with all the inconsistencies with Nick Bridgen I feel he has lost credibility. What is very bizarre is the FS has been delayed a further 6 months when the recent fund raise was required not to delay the FS. My thoughts behind this is that they knew the FS was going to be delayed and the funds are being used in conjunction to funding the pilot plant even further as it’s still loss making. The Things could be worse, the vanadium price could be in decline!
I'll join the make it up brigade and call 57p by August 2023. Good a chance as any. I dropped my crystal ball and it now has a chip in it. So my prediction might be off.
Management has spent a lot on expanding the BFS with studies for side products, especially carbon black for tyres, while we are still waiting for the current operation to become profitable.
Seems to me the wrong focus.
For the current production the business model is to buy material, to process it and sell the extracted minerals. However, even with most modern equipment installed by June this year the operation itself was barely profitable and far from covering the company’s G&A costs. How will they ever make $10 million a year with the current operation as has been repeated again and against since 2019? There are always new reasons why it doesn’t work out yet.
Delaying the BFS for studies on side products like carbon black doesn’t convince me either. OEMs need time to test new products, it can take years. How many producers are willing to start testing? I read in the last report “one”.
Why don’t they start test mining the giant deposit instead?
FAR has the potential to produce the cheapest vanadium in the world even without side products.
Please Mr. Bridgen concentrate on the obvious to get into production soon, not on speculative side shows!