We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
By the time Vision Blue invests another 30 million at 9p, you'll be underwater.
Can this just drop to 10p so o can top up
Okay I didn’t read the BFS update in full: Yes, BFS for phase 1 is being delayed half a year until end of 2023. It doesn’t change my conservative outlook.
Happy holidays to all.
So my guess for the end of 2023 is anywhere between the current s/p and 25p.
My reasons:
With delays due to supply chain issues FAR still has steadily modernised the current production as planned, so I am confident the final modernisation step, the nickel processing facility, will be completed in Q1/23.
But I doubt they can reach their production and profit goals. In the interim report Sept 15th they explained poor financial performance with
- logistical issues due to the war,
- “increased trade debtor balances” (i.e. buyers didn’t pay yet) while the company paid for the purchased material in cash “in order to secure a flow of concentrates”,
- “loss payable provision … with respect to product sales that have suffered negative market price movements”
So my guess is 2023 will not be a loss making year but a year of continued hope to improve profitability. At least the improved operations will keep the company afloat without need for further cash raises, and that will keep the share price from falling further.
As for the BFS, the company recently announced to publish by mid 2023 first a BFS part 1 for Balasausquandiq phase 1 development. This is encouraging as it looks like they really push to keep that timeline by now splitting up the BFS in two parts, phase 1 and later phase 2.
However the positive news of the BFS phase 1 will fade with the difficulties to find full financing for a project in Kazakhstan in the current geopolitical situation. Kazakhstan is not Russia, so the sentiment will hopefully change over time, but patience is needed.
So I hold but don’t top up even at these prices.
We FAR shareholders need patience but we also need a second plan to make some gains in the meantime. There are other opportunities with established companies at cheap prices in the market.
I get the reason behind FAR investing in the potential for the higher margin carbon black but realistically what’s the chances of big tyre manufacturers taking this non standard product. For me I’m assuming this won’t progress (and basing my figures on lower price per tonne) however the carbon for smelting at £350 per tonne will generate turnover of $70m. I’ve also assumed there will be no other bi product apart from uranium and obviously vanadium which brings a total turnover of circa $150m, fcf of circa $90. This is all immaterial as everything hinges on profitability of the pilot plant which Nick Bridgen has continuously failed to deliver on, regardless of how much capital investment has been thrown at it. Phase 1 is probably going to require $150m investment and good terms will be based on using the FCF funds from the pilot plant. So many uncertainties currently and with all the inconsistencies with Nick Bridgen I feel he has lost credibility. What is very bizarre is the FS has been delayed a further 6 months when the recent fund raise was required not to delay the FS. My thoughts behind this is that they knew the FS was going to be delayed and the funds are being used in conjunction to funding the pilot plant even further as it’s still loss making. The Things could be worse, the vanadium price could be in decline!
I'll join the make it up brigade and call 57p by August 2023. Good a chance as any. I dropped my crystal ball and it now has a chip in it. So my prediction might be off.
Management has spent a lot on expanding the BFS with studies for side products, especially carbon black for tyres, while we are still waiting for the current operation to become profitable.
Seems to me the wrong focus.
For the current production the business model is to buy material, to process it and sell the extracted minerals. However, even with most modern equipment installed by June this year the operation itself was barely profitable and far from covering the company’s G&A costs. How will they ever make $10 million a year with the current operation as has been repeated again and against since 2019? There are always new reasons why it doesn’t work out yet.
Delaying the BFS for studies on side products like carbon black doesn’t convince me either. OEMs need time to test new products, it can take years. How many producers are willing to start testing? I read in the last report “one”.
Why don’t they start test mining the giant deposit instead?
FAR has the potential to produce the cheapest vanadium in the world even without side products.
Please Mr. Bridgen concentrate on the obvious to get into production soon, not on speculative side shows!
Bridgen will announce further delays in terms of the existing plant, supply chain issues will be the reason for the plant not being profitable. For me the current operational plant generating free cash flow is paramount otherwise further shareholder dilution will occur.
No more delays, next Xmas, 30p plus.
This is a excellent long term hold and I'll keep adding. Keyword is longterm.
Anyone care to speculate on share price assumptions by next Christmas?
Assuming plant gets 10m$ operating profit, I'd say with the kaz discount, that should underpin the current share price, so with the bankable feasibility study on a 2bn$ npv phase 1 I'd expect 15% of that prior to funding.
Around 60p. That would get me 3X in 2 years.... I think it may be a bit niche and unconventional to get bought by a big boy until at least phase 1 is proven to run smoothly and profitably.
Active tele-gram group.
Search ferroalloyresource
Absolutely there is lots of potential, you just have to take a long term view on this.
Waiting for 10pish to top up.
I will be adding - I still see fab potential here.
Where those stop loses at....
My limit order was before the rns today....
Waiting for 10p
Feasibility Study for Phase 1 now to be published Q 2023. Was looking to buy but too early for me to wait. Will be around 10 p maybe Q2 2023. Each to their own.
Sub 10p?
Looking forward to adding @ 10p if I can. I must add significantly to reduce my average.
Delayed AGAIN!
From mid 23 to end 23. Basically will be early 24 by the looks of it.
Here comes the slow drift down....
Limit order set at 11p....
Also anyone know or hazard a guess, how much it will likely take to get mining extraction and refinement up and running? And to what timescales?
I recall a RSN earlier that talked about the current refinement and capacity being invested in and increased?
Do we think there will need to be any further raises?
Has anyone seriously crunched some numbers to see how much we're worth per share in 2030?
I hope you’re right! £3 I was being conservative as I’ve been royally shafted the last couple of year… £3 and I’m retired comfortably £30 and I’ll see you in Vegas via my private jet
Three quid by 2030?! I’ll be demanding more than that by 2030. This is supposed to be a game changing vanadium producer with low costs, and if expected world demand will increase exponentially then a measly three quid feels cheap. In ten years time I expect it to be double that at least.
For maximum value, this should be considered a very long term hold. Building a decent position in my SIPP.
May the suppressed prices continue.