Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
So far the only ESO example was X5 which has only Russian assets and so with not comparable. It was written here before, the upcoming AGM will bring more light on the next steps of Evraz.
Obviously you are Russian and you know that at any scenario you win. Your story is comfortable for you … thats all. None of your previous written statements came to reality … was reading them all now.
The external debt of PLC is 1.1B$ in rest of Eurobonds - where off likely another 450M$ are owned by Russian holders. Are you aware that Evraz Russia owe NA 400M$.
You never mention any point which not support you scare stories …
You say: Evraz has no desire and plan to do ESO yet
how do you know that? any proof? YOU don't want it to ESO - that's ok, but speaking for Evraz plc? I don't know what they want since I am not an insider, I just think that ESO will benefit both big shareholders and Rus gov, so they would do it and I bet my money on it.
NA assets have been cash negative for all time and have some debt - i personally value them at zero or very low. If they stay in the Evraz plc after ESO - i absolutely don't care. Just remember that PLC has 2.5+ bln usd debt they still have to cover somehow with all the money locked in Russia.
What you need to understand, that Evraz is legal registered as public company in UK. They have large assets in Russia and North America. The Shareholder split is 72% Russian / 28% Non Russian. none in the west can attack the russian assets neather russia the NA ones. Evraz has no desire and plan to do ESO yet.
All your past posts are constructed to worry shareholders to sell. Otherwise stop to post your Evraz not related stories and wait that someone is selling to you.
Putin allowed the use of US property to compensate for the seizure of assets
23/05/2024
The war of sanctions
Vladimir Putin (Photo: Gavriil Grigorov / Sputnik / Reuters)
Russian courts have been granted the right to use American property in Russia to compensate for damage caused by the seizure of Russian assets in the United States, according to a decree by President Vladimir Putin.
We are talking about the movable and immovable property of the United States, American companies and citizens located on the territory of Russia, as well as securities owned by them, shares in the authorized capitals of Russian companies and other property rights of the United States and Americans in Russia.
so far no UK or EU citizens, but we all know where this is heading. Evraz plc needs to beg for ESO as soon as possible.
Thank you for a very upbeat massage. The main fly in the ointment is the illegal and corrupt sanctions by this soon to be terminated unelected and unelectable uk regime.
No fire sales are required of EVR North America. EVRAZ PLC FTSE 100 company is not for sale.!!!!!!! RASP are a real jewel in this global enterprise.
Please keep up all your great work.
I have enough shares already to support a 1 usd per share buyback. For the prices other western businesses had sold Russian assets I am 100% sure 80% of the corporate/funds/banks Evraz plc shareholders would accept this buyback offer with pleasure.
the typical price of the out of Russia deal is like this:
Just for you all to understand the real prices here is today's news from Russia. The price is 2 bln for 18 bln of pure money just for the permission to take to UK 2 bpn out of 17! This is why the situation of not ESOing is so bad in my view, cause it would mean a sale like this.
Expobank buys HSBC subsidiary at 90% discount
03/21/2024, 15:31
Tatiana Voronova
The transaction amount could be only 2 billion rubles with the bank’s capital of 17 billion
The Russian subsidiary of the global investment bank HSBC is being sold at a record discount for the Russian market. Two sources familiar with the details of the deal confirmed this to Frank Media. One of them knows that the discount will be “significant”, i.e. much more than what is required by law. The second interlocutor indicates that an option was discussed in which it would amount to about 90% of the capital. Thus, HSBC Bank can leave with a minimal multiplier - with the bank’s capital of 17 billion rubles, the transaction amount could be about 2 billion rubles.
I can read your messages in the past. For sure for those traded in and are not longterm investor, a nice way out. For you a nice price for a company which is multiple worth than 1$/1£.
It was posted earlier here that X5 has only assets in Russia. Thats not the fact here. Evraz has a multi billion asset in North America. As well the largest shareholder has billions of $ of frozen assets. ESO would do more harm to Evraz , thats the reason ESO was/is not in scope.
I think this could change when the North American Asset would be sold and Non Russian shareholders would get a buyback offer. Just summarise points i was reading the past hour here in the history of the chat.
I started buying in August 2023, are you in any way better now than in august 2023? Are your Evraz shares worth more? I don't try to scare anyone, I just tell it as it is and give people a great way to recoup their money. You are fooling people with idiotic hopes for dividends, buybacks, etc. Foreign Investors in FIVE X5 - a Netherland entity (which Russian part is doing way better than even Ezraz Russia) has just lost 100% of their investments due to ESO. If somebody bought them out before - that they could have at least save some money. That is such a dumb way people loose money cause they are unable to understand anything in Russia!
Evraz Russia already paid 435M to PLC for bonds. I hear another payment for bonds in preparation.
Based on the law in Russian 50% of netprofit or min amount of yearly investment can be paid to a foreign owned unit. Spoken to some russian lawyer to understand details, gives Evraz sufficient cash to pay dividends moving forward.
Evraz has already around 70% of russian owners so there isnt any risk for Russia that anyone outside Russia can influence evraz or rasp.
The ESO law is used for unique circumstances. Had a long discussion with some experts and so far they see Evraz and RASP far away from being in scope. Was reading your past articles here and it’s obvious that you try to scare people with end game scenarios, without any facts behind ….
Maybe you should focus on your life and if anyone want to sell to you, they can contact you.
Evraz Russia is doing supergood, although the bond yield is a very low 18.6%) Also finally start to understand that Evraz Russia has almost nothing to do with Evraz plc. The link is broken and can not be restored any time soon. No money goes from Russia to Plc ever.
Also from todays news - Fridman (another Russian oligarch) is suing Luxemburg for 15 bln usd of frozen assets meanwhile he is ESOing his biggest in Russia retail chain X5 Five. So having 15 bln usd frozen does not stop anyone from taking the Russian assets from the foreign holding company back to Russia as Evraz oligarch should do. I still wait for the ESO in Evraz plc.
The only hope for the Evraz plc is selling Evraz NA at a very high price. So far I see no buyers or no will to sell. And even if they sell high, they won't pay divs or buyback since they are themselves sanctioned and paying divs to a frozen sanctioned account makes zero sense.
Amazing news : Evraz Russia (excl. RASP) has reduced net debt in 2022&2023 from 2.5B$ to 1.7B$ and paid on top 435M$ loans off inside PLC (bonds).
RASP is NETDEBT negative means no debt left and massive cash / working capital only. Should be 800M$ positive now
NA debt is a loan from PLC only so from external view also NETDEBT positive. Also interesting is that Evraz Russia owe NA close to 400M$ based on last report.
Only 1.1B$ bonds left now inside the PLC - our NETDEBT of the group is most likely less than 1.5B$.
Rumours: Evraz done a deal is safe
• The growth of the construction industry helps the company. High EBITDA margin — 27%. Support for the construction industry (40% of revenue) will remain until 2030. The main risks may be from the 38% share of exports.
• Financial risk is low. Very low debt burden — 0.8x. A favorable debt repayment schedule.
• Neutral influence of beneficiaries.
• 18.6% is the best yield in the first tier, we expect a decrease.
In detail
The leader of steel production in the construction and railway industries of the Russian Federation. 40% of the company's revenue comes from the construction industry in the Russian Federation, about 14% from the railway industry. We believe that support for the construction industry will remain at a high level until 2030, although it will decrease from the second half of this year.
The railway industry has historically been stable. The greatest risk comes from the 38% share of exports, but most of it goes to the Asian region, which reduces uncertainty. The EBITDA margin is high and partly due to vertical integration into iron ore. The operational risks are medium: two main plants with low accident rates, producing about 40% and 60% of all steel products.
A very low debt burden reduces risks. The Net debt/EBITDA ratio for 2023 is 0.8x, which is an extremely low level. There will be enough cash and liquidity to pay off all debts in 2024. Currency risks are average: 50% of debt is in foreign currency, while 100% of revenue is tied to it due to steel. The debt repayment schedule is favorable, taking into account stable EBITDA.
The influence of shareholders is neutral. Roman Abramovich and partners are the controlling shareholders, but due to UK sanctions restrictions they cannot exert legal influence, so the three divisions of Evraz plc actually operate separately. Raspadskaya, which supplies coal to EVRAZ NTMK, is also located in the Russian perimeter. We do not see any risks from Raspadskaya, since the company has zero net debt.
The conditional yield of 18.6% at EvrazHolding Finance is the maximum in the 1st tier. Currently, only MTS offers a slightly lower conditional yield (18.5%), but EVRAZ pays a coupon every 30 days, which should put it in a better position before investors. We expect a slight increase in the bond body in the range of 0.5%. We consider Yerazholding Finance 003P-01 with a conditional YTM of 18.6% and
The European Commission has announced today the first withdrawal of income from frozen Russian sovereign assets in July 2024. Money will go to Ukraine's military. For now 3-5 bln euro a year. Russia has repeatedly stated that it would respond in kind. Evraz plc (a UK entity) needs to push for ESOing as soon as possible in my view before it gets hit in these retaliation strikes.
There are properties frozen in UK and EU worth 500m$
Chelsea money and some other assets / shares he could not move out his investment vehicle.
You get quick to 5B$
This is from WSJ article "abramovich-pledged-3-billion-for-ukraine-war-victims-the-money-is-frozen-in-the-u-k": Even before Russian tanks entered Ukraine in February 2022, Abramovich and his advisers moved quickly to shield him from global sanctions by transferring a large chunk of his wealth into his children’s names and sailing his fleet of yachts out of territories where Western sanctions applied, according to filings and people familiar with the matter.
But nonetheless 3 USD bln from the football club seem to still be in UK frozen which this article says so you have not entirely made this 7 bln figure up which is good. Although both in Yandex and in Polymetal cases the funds did just absolutely nothing to protect their client's money.
Abramovich example - £5.4B
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/jersey-freezes-54bn-of-assets-linked-to-roman-abramovich
I really have no idea about the frozen assets of them personally - it is not covered in Russia and I have seen no documents or official statements whatsoever. All I know is that the FC Chelsea he had was sold and the money was frozen or something. Never even heard about the 2 other guys.
Andrey,
Now you go into farytale stories, you know the exact details of the frozen assets.
Hope we meet soon and have a drink together - like you.
Have a fab evening
Regards
Phil
What exactly is illegal? It will all be legal - Evraz NTMK can do whatever they want with the assets I think. And second thing - you keep mentioning these frozen assets of RA and others. But I have never seen any official numbers or proofs that these asset and freeze even exist. And this is all not a story!!! It is a great risk for our investment in Evraz, potentially nullifying even my eso-protected shares this is why i worry.
Andrey,
That what you speak about is an illegal act and RA and other will loose all frozen assets. Secondly the company is sanctioned and by law they cant sell any debt. Come next time with a better story pls.
L
Philip how can you discuss them for years since I saw the details in the Evraz NTMK in RU bonds placement offer? I get that you don't understand debt/accounting schemes. So very simple - there are 2 companies: Philip Plc UK and Philip Russia. Philip Russia buys/has 3-4 bln usd of Philip Plc UK debt. Philip Russia than writes it down as uncollectable (HAS ALREADY HAPPENED) and sells it for 100 mln to Mr. Formally Unrelated. Then Mr. Formally Unrelated comes to Philip Plc UK and makes it pay 3-4 bln usd of Philip Plc UK debt. Philip Plc UK has no money and pays for the debt with Russian assets and NA assets may be. I want you to formulate your questions at AGM not as a spoiled child about dividends, but as a serious investor - main idea being that you DO NOT want the company to sell the debt to Mr. Formally Unrelated/assets to Mr. Formally Unrelated/etc. Here our interests go along cause I want the company to be whole to ESO which can happen any time now (I hope the gov will stop sleeping and release the list part 2), and you just want it to be whole to make money).
Andrey,
We discussed debt structures for years in our chat.
We have some accountants in the chat they know what they talking about .
So dont shoot the messenger here
Thanks
Andrey,
You not listen ?
This is intercompany debt structures in place to balance tax efficiency and created many years ago. There is no EXTERNAL debt connected to the 4B between PlC in UK and SA in Luxembourg.
The debt profile is clear defined:
1. 1.1B$ Eurobonds
2. 1.75B$ NET DEBT (Evraz Russia)
RASP and NA are NETDEBT negative so you need to reduce this from the numbers above …
Philip, they can sell the debt very cheap from Evraz Russia to an "unrelated" entity and this "unrelated" entity will approach Evraz plc with 3 usd bln of Evraz plc debt to settle the debt with the sale of the Russian assets. And I see signs that this might be their plan. I was fully invested into ESO thing, but the RusGov has made Eso into stages and if this asset for debt sale happens than all these shares will be worthless for me too as well as for you. Philip, i get that you have invested all your money and life into Evraz and feel better listening to the optimists in your cult chat but at least try to think rationally and stop being a clown asking idiotic questions instead of the real ones. See what has happened in Polymetal and Yandex cases. Anthony MC/Plena/Teegak/Avingon etc - I am NOT buying you at ANY price, on ANY terms, you should consult a physiatrist ASAP. Write your messages to Philip, not me, maybe he will buy you out. I will not buy your shares even if you follow me on your knees for a month begging to buy them. I have no idea how to put it in a more convincing way!
Andrey…
As ever it takes any intelligent adult seconds to find holes in your desperate rankings on LSE:
To point one out for now. Although I do wish to return my Sunday dinner…
“…that makes “sale” of Russian assets from Evraz plc for zero (debt) an option for them unless there would be a determined group of shareholders ready to go to court, etc. “ Andrey…
I’m sure Norwegian Sovereign Fund would take them to court?
Not to mention many other institutional investors.
Andrey one of your more amusing comments to me last year when I tried to ‘deal’ with you. When you wanted to meet me with a suitcase of cash at Southbank Tube Station. As per your admission. “The banks reject my transfers!”
“I am only offering £1 as I am approaching institutions and dealing at £0.50” Andrey
😂😂😂
Did the cashiers from Blackrock and the Norwegian Sovereign Fund meet you at Southbank Tube Station? 👍😂😂