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Amazing news : Evraz Russia (excl. RASP) has reduced net debt in 2022&2023 from 2.5B$ to 1.7B$ and paid on top 435M$ loans off inside PLC (bonds).
RASP is NETDEBT negative means no debt left and massive cash / working capital only. Should be 800M$ positive now
NA debt is a loan from PLC only so from external view also NETDEBT positive. Also interesting is that Evraz Russia owe NA close to 400M$ based on last report.
Only 1.1B$ bonds left now inside the PLC - our NETDEBT of the group is most likely less than 1.5B$.
Rumours: Evraz done a deal is safe
• The growth of the construction industry helps the company. High EBITDA margin — 27%. Support for the construction industry (40% of revenue) will remain until 2030. The main risks may be from the 38% share of exports.
• Financial risk is low. Very low debt burden — 0.8x. A favorable debt repayment schedule.
• Neutral influence of beneficiaries.
• 18.6% is the best yield in the first tier, we expect a decrease.
In detail
The leader of steel production in the construction and railway industries of the Russian Federation. 40% of the company's revenue comes from the construction industry in the Russian Federation, about 14% from the railway industry. We believe that support for the construction industry will remain at a high level until 2030, although it will decrease from the second half of this year.
The railway industry has historically been stable. The greatest risk comes from the 38% share of exports, but most of it goes to the Asian region, which reduces uncertainty. The EBITDA margin is high and partly due to vertical integration into iron ore. The operational risks are medium: two main plants with low accident rates, producing about 40% and 60% of all steel products.
A very low debt burden reduces risks. The Net debt/EBITDA ratio for 2023 is 0.8x, which is an extremely low level. There will be enough cash and liquidity to pay off all debts in 2024. Currency risks are average: 50% of debt is in foreign currency, while 100% of revenue is tied to it due to steel. The debt repayment schedule is favorable, taking into account stable EBITDA.
The influence of shareholders is neutral. Roman Abramovich and partners are the controlling shareholders, but due to UK sanctions restrictions they cannot exert legal influence, so the three divisions of Evraz plc actually operate separately. Raspadskaya, which supplies coal to EVRAZ NTMK, is also located in the Russian perimeter. We do not see any risks from Raspadskaya, since the company has zero net debt.
The conditional yield of 18.6% at EvrazHolding Finance is the maximum in the 1st tier. Currently, only MTS offers a slightly lower conditional yield (18.5%), but EVRAZ pays a coupon every 30 days, which should put it in a better position before investors. We expect a slight increase in the bond body in the range of 0.5%. We consider Yerazholding Finance 003P-01 with a conditional YTM of 18.6% and
Evraz Russia is doing supergood, although the bond yield is a very low 18.6%) Also finally start to understand that Evraz Russia has almost nothing to do with Evraz plc. The link is broken and can not be restored any time soon. No money goes from Russia to Plc ever.
Also from todays news - Fridman (another Russian oligarch) is suing Luxemburg for 15 bln usd of frozen assets meanwhile he is ESOing his biggest in Russia retail chain X5 Five. So having 15 bln usd frozen does not stop anyone from taking the Russian assets from the foreign holding company back to Russia as Evraz oligarch should do. I still wait for the ESO in Evraz plc.
The only hope for the Evraz plc is selling Evraz NA at a very high price. So far I see no buyers or no will to sell. And even if they sell high, they won't pay divs or buyback since they are themselves sanctioned and paying divs to a frozen sanctioned account makes zero sense.
Evraz Russia already paid 435M to PLC for bonds. I hear another payment for bonds in preparation.
Based on the law in Russian 50% of netprofit or min amount of yearly investment can be paid to a foreign owned unit. Spoken to some russian lawyer to understand details, gives Evraz sufficient cash to pay dividends moving forward.
Evraz has already around 70% of russian owners so there isnt any risk for Russia that anyone outside Russia can influence evraz or rasp.
The ESO law is used for unique circumstances. Had a long discussion with some experts and so far they see Evraz and RASP far away from being in scope. Was reading your past articles here and it’s obvious that you try to scare people with end game scenarios, without any facts behind ….
Maybe you should focus on your life and if anyone want to sell to you, they can contact you.
I started buying in August 2023, are you in any way better now than in august 2023? Are your Evraz shares worth more? I don't try to scare anyone, I just tell it as it is and give people a great way to recoup their money. You are fooling people with idiotic hopes for dividends, buybacks, etc. Foreign Investors in FIVE X5 - a Netherland entity (which Russian part is doing way better than even Ezraz Russia) has just lost 100% of their investments due to ESO. If somebody bought them out before - that they could have at least save some money. That is such a dumb way people loose money cause they are unable to understand anything in Russia!
I can read your messages in the past. For sure for those traded in and are not longterm investor, a nice way out. For you a nice price for a company which is multiple worth than 1$/1£.
It was posted earlier here that X5 has only assets in Russia. Thats not the fact here. Evraz has a multi billion asset in North America. As well the largest shareholder has billions of $ of frozen assets. ESO would do more harm to Evraz , thats the reason ESO was/is not in scope.
I think this could change when the North American Asset would be sold and Non Russian shareholders would get a buyback offer. Just summarise points i was reading the past hour here in the history of the chat.
I have enough shares already to support a 1 usd per share buyback. For the prices other western businesses had sold Russian assets I am 100% sure 80% of the corporate/funds/banks Evraz plc shareholders would accept this buyback offer with pleasure.
the typical price of the out of Russia deal is like this:
Just for you all to understand the real prices here is today's news from Russia. The price is 2 bln for 18 bln of pure money just for the permission to take to UK 2 bpn out of 17! This is why the situation of not ESOing is so bad in my view, cause it would mean a sale like this.
Expobank buys HSBC subsidiary at 90% discount
03/21/2024, 15:31
Tatiana Voronova
The transaction amount could be only 2 billion rubles with the bank’s capital of 17 billion
The Russian subsidiary of the global investment bank HSBC is being sold at a record discount for the Russian market. Two sources familiar with the details of the deal confirmed this to Frank Media. One of them knows that the discount will be “significant”, i.e. much more than what is required by law. The second interlocutor indicates that an option was discussed in which it would amount to about 90% of the capital. Thus, HSBC Bank can leave with a minimal multiplier - with the bank’s capital of 17 billion rubles, the transaction amount could be about 2 billion rubles.
Thank you for a very upbeat massage. The main fly in the ointment is the illegal and corrupt sanctions by this soon to be terminated unelected and unelectable uk regime.
No fire sales are required of EVR North America. EVRAZ PLC FTSE 100 company is not for sale.!!!!!!! RASP are a real jewel in this global enterprise.
Please keep up all your great work.
Andrey
“ The only hope for the Evraz plc is selling Evraz NA at a very high price. So far I see no buyers or no will to sell.”
Rest assured that EVR shareholders see you as nothing more than a carpetbagger. No-one believes that you have any extra insight or knowledge of the Evraz group or the NA sales process.
No offence meant. Your dogged persistence is remarkable, however.
K3VMC how many shares do you have? Most name callers like you are broke af. People who have shares are usually very polite.
Not too sure why you would want to sell a prestige rolls royce???????????
EVRAZ PLC FTSE 100 GLOBAL COMPANY IS NOT FORSALE. END OF.
pain in the **** actually.
Received my AGM attendance letter Friday for meeting on 25 June 2024. Nice stamps from russia.
I know that birds and fruits do not read even in two but the AGM meeting is on the 27th of June 2024
So Andrey. I guess you have seen the ESO guidance from X5.
Looks like foreign holders are highly likely receive direct shares in the ESO.
Are you ready to apologise for all the lies you have been posting over the last 9 months about western shareholders losing everything?
Probably not because you aren’t a man, you are a disgrace to society.
Anthony has registered a 100th nickname? I am still not buying your shares! As for the ESO - you all told me it will never ever happen! Now you know it will happen - that is good you have finally come to the truth!!! Just one more step - read the law and see for yourself what you can get in case of the ESO. And read when this amendment for the law was made by the way. Also - who wants to call me names - come to Russia and we will talk with you disgrace to society losers.
Out of all the people on the Phils group I will respect only people who WILL REALLY pay more than I do for the shares. These people are worth something. But there are none such people. You know why? Cause you don't believe a word you say.
Andrey has been constant for a long time lol andrey what’s your email address again
And how much you paying per share
Andrey, i setup the group that everyone share news. The group has many large shareholders which not write a lot but calm and waiting for the way forward.
It was already weeks ago communicated that foreign shareholders will be able to receive shares inside ESO. There was now a detailed communication about it for X5. Nothing to have an argument about. Its obvious if how you say that Evraz becomes ESO, all with share certificate can get ESO shares. Speaking at the moment with a Kaz broker which work on Moex as well and discussions going around that S accounts will get moved to normal in the near future. Its important to recognise such information.
I personal see rather an NA sale with sharebuyback or a trading on a new stock exchange in the future as way out of it. However, those were back in 2022 in the telegram group know that Evraz was pushing for us to go share certificates. Looks like this will pay out in one or the other way.
I hope you had a great trip back and we meet soon for a tea/coffee.
Philip/Evraz writes in a polite way so I will respond in kind. The C (S) accounts mean that your ESO shares if you even would be able/willing to get them (I will not write why most of you would choose not to become ESO shareholders of Evraz Russia - think for yourself) in Russia will be frozen until the west lifts all the sanctions which is until Putin steps down which is 2040s. Right now they are a lot of foreign stocks which were owned be Russian citizens before the war which are locked inside Russia. For example Apple or Nvidia stocks. They are trading at 20% of the NYSE/NASDAQ price since they are locked in Russia forever. And these are tradeable stocks! Yours if you manage/choose to get Evraz ESO shares will be locked so even cheaper sale price if you manage to get the Rus Gov permission. This is basically zero. As I wrote before - get a Russian friend/wife asap if you want to save anything. I will no go into how much Evraz NA is - you value it your way but don't buy shares, I value it at zero (debt) and bet my own money on ESOing.
Andrey making up lies again. Why am I not surprised?
Nobody said ESO will happen, no news has come in on this yet. All I was saying is that if ESO does happen, anyone with a share certificate (the people you are targeting with your lies) is likely to be able to become a direct shareholder in the ESO.
Funny how your line has now changed to somehow make it seem like your ESO shares will be worth more that anyone else’s. Do you realise how ridiculous you sound?
Nobody has a problem with your offer price, I haven’t seen anyone offering more. We do have a problem with your disgraceful tactics to scare people into selling. Give it a break and become an honest person, give it a try and you might find your life is more fulfilling rather than being a keyboard warrior on here all the time
Andrey,
I have to correct you. I know several peopel who has S/C accounts and they are allowed first of all to re-invest in some gov bonds the divi money.
Secondly i know several X5 holders which checked with IR and are in process to get their shares in ESO. Fact is, the process is simple and straight forward.
I never said that ESO is planned for Evraz but i am saying that your stories here have no ground anymore. Why you not just say you buy shares at X price and stop your stories which have to be proven so far not correct?
So Evraz certificate shareholders will have a great future - independent on options going forward.
Sorry but at present I cant see shareholders having a great future.. These sanctions need to be removed immediately.
God knows when the next AGM is due . Even more worrying what the hell will they have to say?
Philip you keep thinking that you know more about Russian stock market/laws/accounts than me. It is very very very bold of you. I have helped a lot of people to recover money lost in Evraz and I do it the way I see fit cause it is MY money. If you really believe in what you say - place a bid. Buy shares. That is all. Little talk, place a bid. Buy out people at X pounds since it is 5X pounds worth as you say. Make "EASY" 500%. No? Why? Cause really it is less than 1 usd worth to you? Anyways, bye!
Lies lies lies.
Money isn’t lost in Evraz. It would be fair to say it is currently ‘stuck’.
Andrey you continually use wording that makes it sound like the situation is much worse than reality for your own benefit.
I don’t want to buy more shares at £1, even though I think they are worth it I don’t know how long my money would be tied up. This obviously doesn’t matter to you which is fine, but stop trying to justify your lies by saying you are buying at £1. Just because you are making an offer doesn’t make your lies any more truthful