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Hi DD, that means Morningstar has been wrong for quite some time. I contacted IR in May so they can hardly say they're unaware. The problem with 'Major shareholders' is that they have some similarities towards a Poll and we know how accurate they are. The company relies on the major shareholders keeping their holding updated (within reason as sometimes there is a need to delay trade notification) and some have a pretty cavalier attitude towards it. I'm not sure but it may be voluntary anyway. The only time I believe they are legally obliged is during takeovers, RI, OO etc.... I am p*ssed that IR haven't corrected Morningstar as it would only take a few minutes. I'd forgotten the large holding of the Employees Benefit Trust and expect they'd vote with AB. What is a tad worrying is that nobody else spotted the mistake or perhaps this board is a majority trader's site where things like shareholder makeup holds little interest. It does though illustrate the lack of research of those propounding going private. I put it in the same class as oil heading for $40/$80 or the price next week.
This from IR in May: "AA and AB are effectively the same. Most of Amjad’s (AB) shares are held through the firm Double A, with Amjad also having a much smaller personal shareholding. By adding the two together you get your estimate of c9% To potentially confuse matters further, he has recently bought shares through his charitable foundation. Again, fairly small overall so his combined holdings across the 3 “entities” is still just over 9%."
Morning DD thank god I've been let out the cage. When we covered this last time I actually spoke to IR to confirm our Major shareholders, I even asked if AB would consider taking the company private (Silly I Know but if you don't ask you don't get) The response I got wasn't clear cut. Here it is - The directors have a duty to act in the interests of their shareholders. Our CEO is our largest holder and our management teams are also rewarded to some extent on the basis of share price performance through their long term incentive plans, so clearly aligned to improve our share price performance.
Watcha KO - out the cage! Morningstar has 10.4% AB and 9.5% Double A, but you are correct the ENQ site has 10.12 % all in, so my sincere apologies for posting up numbers that appear incorrect - but makes the rubbish about taking this private even more absurd!. Sorry romaron. Will go back to lurking in the background! DD
romaron I posted “Given that AB plus Double A only have about 20%” which is correct and Double A is not the largest. IMO the foundation would support AB making 20% that’s all I was saying so we may just have to agree to disagree. I do agree however that talk of being taken private is mischief making as you say. All the best.
DD, I don't think you read my posts correctly. I haven't given any thought to the company being taken private because I think it is mischief making and have better things to occupy my time. I was merely correcting your suggestion that AB has control of c. 20% with his holding, the foundation and Double A which are basically the same thing; Double A being the largest. The total is c.10 not 20%. That's all.
Romaron, You are correct, never said otherwise, you just didn’t read my 19:52 post correctly and are you saying Double A would not agree or vote favourably for AB?. Irrespective of this my point was that talk of AB taking this private is complete nonsense IMO as he would have to get 66% of the shareholders to agree to his offer.
gkb-wouldn’t lose any sleep, respect your knowledge but wind up or not I do believe it’s fundamentally wrong to post up such things on here, sorry but if you are invested why post up rubbish that would / could deter pi’s from investing here, makes no sense to me. Anyway, enough of this and all the best for Thurs.
KO, Yes, but he can make an offer 25p take it or leave it any day. If he gets 90% acceptance it goes through. Seen it many times happen with big owner family. And with so small MC now compared to FCF its dangerous
Either MC must go up in 2020 or we will see some changes on owner side next year I think. If AB does it or some new player comes in and also try to get controll or 10-20% I dont know. Exciting future with 400 mill MC and 600 mill FCF
Most shareholders will give up holding on Thursday, their cash is being left here to rot. My guess is the price will plummet if they don't issue good enough facts. People will sell and buy (if they want to waste their money)next week under 15p. That's the way I see this share going. 19p is the new 44p
Sorry DD, you're wrong. Double A Limited is a discretionary trust in which the extended family of Amjad Bseisu has a beneficial interest. We've gone through this before. AB's amount is tiny in relation to Double A but it's the way his holding is structured.
You are correct, AB has 10.5%, but i poster AB plus Double A have about 20%.
gkb - 50% isn’t enough to tender an offer, needs 66%, so he’s got to buy another £306m of shares without driving the price up too much (pmsl), then you say he’s got to short it to drive the price down, jeez I’ve heard it all now!.
Hi DD - Your 19.52 overstates the Bseisu shareholding. It was 10.12% as of 9 September 2019 from the enquest.com website. I haven't looked into the possibility of taking the company private as I believe it is a narrative created by mischief makers.
KO, yeah but looking back at analyst early this year they were bit right. If Kraken problems continued or oil stayed low there would not be much cash at bank now after the amortisations. 2020 is complete difference, double FCF and no amortisations basically.
Question is just if AB will play all cards now or some in Feb/March? Last year he guided production only this time around. And opex/capex in Feb or March
Thanks Pelle, plenty there to get to $700m, but with 2020 scheduled debt repayments of $150m, what do they do with the rest.? I assume they will prepay on the larger 2021 amounts and save even more interest, so the CMD may announce a surprise given Enquest think a few years ahead of us.
Pelle, I would be over the moon if that were to happen - Even if we do give a great CMD and TU I can see the brokers twisting it into a negative again. It’s been very one sided from them for the last few years and I can’t see them changing even if we forecast $600m debt reduction for 2020 with Brent averaging $60.
Hitman Add also No 50 mill negative capital movement 30-50 mill savings at interest and leasing 30-50 less opex
If they don’t give this sense of this picture on CMD it’s bad. I would not be surprised if analysts give SP targets of 40-60p if AB puts out guidance for next year with roughly numbers we have in mind here