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Let's agree to disagree EAS10
* wait until 2021!
If you listen to the most recent call, there was only one question about Guyana drilling. When COO said they don't expect to drill in 2020, there was not one follow up question. Improving production in Ghana, selling Uganda and Kenya are things Tullow seem to be focusing on first. They have committed to selling both Uganda and Kenya and this will improve their debt situation as well as the SP. If they do this, Guyana can wait until 2020 when they have more capital and personnel resources to commit to it.
As ever time will tell.
Any profit is a good profit and you're theory about a 20% loss is a good investing practice. Same goes for booking profits once they start getting above 20%.
Understanding potential black swans is important.
However, here.much of the downside is priced in - Tullow and Eco could easily sell any Hammerhead interest to Total/QP to fund a drill and still retain the lions share of the block. Hammerhead being a discovered commercial resource that has been subject to unitisation talks.
They can fund from E&P budget or through farm down and there.will be push to drill.
Tullow SP still not moving so they need a catalyst or the next layer of management is at risk from a new.broom.
Hmm what might thay catalyst be.....Uganda no longer in 'held for sale' bucket....what else do they have....
Exactly Jimarillo - I suspect TLW want to hold off any more Guyana wildcat drilling until they carry out a big fund raise - and they will use Guyana as the carrot to get donkeys to buy in. Late 2020 or early 2021 is most peoples guess for a TLW fund raise, so drilling 2021 at the earliest it seems.
Trouble with many PI's is they fall in love with shares, refuse to take a 20% loss, then end up sitting on a 60% loss for years.
Anyone care to hazard a few guesses:
A) what size is Hammerhead with 3.FPSO to appraise?
B) how much is on our block?
C) at $4-6 a barrel what does that equate to for current share price?
I'm sure if Dr Trice had had his 'druthers', HUR would be in a position now to fast-track. As both ECO and HUR now know, geology can be a b**tch.
Operating conditions and hence capex/opex are harsher WoS, which adds to the headwinds and the difficulties of making an investment decision.
The respective CEO's are also something of a study in contrasts - I'll say no more ;-> / ;-<
Strange operator we have! Next door Exxon have drilled three wells on what could be a very large accumulation (o.k. heavy oil) but if they sanction a development our operator will not be able to prove how much of Hammerhead lies in our block without a well. In any case it may be connected to another Tertiary prospect in our acreage. Surely they need an early well to appraise and digest any information before unitisation takes place which can be a long drawn out process. Leaving money in the ground is never a clever idea!
Much of the commentary around Liza is how quickly Exxon have brought the field to production. Now a repeatable, scalable process so new fields cheaper from FEED perspective and quicker to being to production
ExT I think that reads across to HUR in the opposite way, how.long with their FID and then how long to build.
Meanwhile, from a global perspective, we can add this point of view to the mix :
Various mentions of Total, Exxon , Surinam, Guyana etc. Suggests - quelle surprise ! - that there'll be more 'churn' in assets as oilco's look to exploit quicker-payback opportunities in view of shortening (maybe) window for exploitation.
Lol it’s true, looks like a messy divorce.. best case scenario would be for tlw to sell their share and for total to become the operator
J, thanks for the link.
You know if we didn't know better its like Eco & TLW were no longer partners! I am sure there is more than meets the eye.
Tullow holding back on drilling Guyana wildcats
Everything a ceo says I just take as info applicable on that day only... strategically they have to drill otherwise this might be it for tlw.. eco are too small to have a say.. total are the ones that my money is one to push everything to make the drill campaign happen.. there is too much oil for the big boys to sit around and do nothing, that’s why even after tlws update I was still sticking to my opinion that they will drill in 2020
May be worth keeping an eye on Tullow & Total pulling out of Kenya , this may have an impact on Eco's 20% holder Africa Oil Corp
It isnt even Gil I'm taking a steer from on darling expectations, it is thinking strategically what the biggest bang per dollar is you can get as Tullow is to drill.
Phoebus, chill... they stated it was unlikely.. and I kept saying that they will drill.. and atm it looks like at least one well will be drilled... if the cpr will be better than expected with big targets, I will be expecting at least 2 wells.. it’s very ironic that you of all ppl have always laughed at naivety of others for listening to the ceo.. but somehow are now surprised that they did a u turn on the unlikely and are considering drilling 1 well
What would the shareholders prefer, a Cretaceous drill or 2 with 35% plus likely CoS or to have the value of their holding cut in half by a placing. The market cap of the business was £4bn only 3 months ago so having the value of your stake in it further reduced will appeal to nobody when less drastic options are clearly on the table.
Phoebus is completely correct.
For a company like TLW in their current position you concentrate on increasing production and efficiencies - you dont go ****ing money away on Wildcatting. They committed to Peru and Suriname in 2020 and so have to drill them - but plan nothing else.
Something like Guyana for TLW offers the carrot to the donkeys - something to propose to new investors in a big placing that likely to happen end 2020 or early 2021. The old, we need to raise 800 million but as part of that we will be drilling 3 wells in 2021 on these exciting Guyana prospects.........here is the carrot, come on, stump up some cash in a discounted placing please.
If they drill the option well and have a duster - they have just lost a big carrot to sell placing shares. Therefore I expect TLW to have a large fund raising late 2020 or early 2021 and then commit to drilling in Guyana. Until then expect them to just process the data.......come up with exciting leads to help sell that fund raising I expect them to do.
Simply a difference of opinion, interestingly Tullow hasn't stated the option is December but that is the slant you put on it such that you can then talk about slipping to 2021.
Time ultimately will tell but this is the biggest potential prize in Tullows portfolio and they need good news.
Worried? For restating a fact that TLW stated only 8 days earlier? Get real. You sound desperate for ECO to drill in 2020 like a lot of others on here. Sadly the quality of comments on this board has gone to the dogs the last couple of week with posters falling over themselves to spin fanciful arguments proving drilling is extremely likely or definitely going ahead in Guyana in 2020 when the operator TLW said only the other day it was unlikely. It's embarassing.
As I said before, I expect a short term spike into the CPR RNS and then a drift until drilling is confirmed in Guyana (or Namibia) be it 2020 or 2021. TLW stated that 2020 is unlikley indicating a possible slot for December 2020 in their accompanying presentation, so even if 2020 is given the nod the timeline will likely slip to 2021. If left field events occur then of couse things can change, but it would be fanciful to consider that the defining factor in determining the balance of probabilities. That is how I see it and I don't really case if people disagree with me. If people have sensible arguments I will listen and when circumstances change I will re-evaluate.
Tullow presentation states a potential drilling option in 2020 for Guyana. This is what started the discussion.
Also that's not berating anyone James, I'm merely highlighting the fact that Tullow have said they don't expect to drill in 2020. It's possible they will. However I'm suggesting we need to rely on official company statements from mgt or through RNS. You on the other hand are constantly posting that the will definitely drill in 2020. You are really scraping the barrel with "berating".
Here is a recent quote from you
"Whatever the 30% is struck at wont necessarily reflect Ecos value but by moving the exploration dial forward and giving an indication (through offer of carry) what the assets are worth if still bit proves them up the it is indicative."
James, that's what I'm asking. What presentation or quote from a presentation are you referring to that has "moved the needle"?