The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Your enthusiasm can be infectious ātester123ā. I have been here a decade plus after having invested a significant chunk of money for me and have averaged down to mid fifties. Itās a little tough to throw good money to average down when already deep in red! Anyway moan over for today!
Tester go have a cold shower and give it a rest . Funding is the biggest hurdle here and until that is resolved it will just float .
Cant believe this is moving down again - what a great time to be taking a position here or reducing your average if you are already invested.
With the news due here and gold price predictions for it to be heading much higher over the next few months, the combination could be explosive.
Anyone ready to start a Ā£1 by Xmas sweepstake yet?! :-)
regards
T123
You would think that with trillions printed since March and in times of uncertainty you would expect a flight of dollars into the safety of gold or swiss franc as a reserve. After the election in the US the printing presses are going to be running at full tilt. Condor just needs to double down and keep on track and i like the sounds of the fast track to production because that is very much the sense of what shareholders are looking for as we can breathe a sign of relief once gold production starts. I think if MC can confirm we are on track more investors will move into Condor on the derisk. while i would love to be buying in at these levels i am a little overweight on Condor already ;)
Yes a bid could come anytime for CNR. Why?
Rio Tinto are now in the country via Calibre tie up after 18 months DD
Prolific 5 Million oz high grade gold district on large land package
2.4 Million oz proven resources
1.12 Million oz already permitted for extraction
Only $700 AISC cash costs (lower quartile globally)
Max $100M CAPEX costs (very low for something this size)
Eventual 170k-200koz per year production target
Rising Gold Price environment..
Apart from being in an ultra safe political jurisdiction like Canada, US - Im not sure what other boxes CNR would need to tick for a mid tier / major to be interested.
regards
T123
Talking about March sell off - many stocks are at them lows or worse.
I donāt think the whole market will collapse simply because of the money being printed.
I see todayās dip as a buying op in this market.
Down had fallen nearly 10% or 2000 points + in 3-4 sessions.
I believe that con does extensive drilling could also be the foundation for a takeover .... as tester says thereās $10b worth of gold.
Iām looking to add here. Just donāt see CNR making it to production.
Site having problems today. As a quick aside, heres a little nugget for you - Condors land package in Nicaragua is the same size as the whole of the Isle of Man.. c.600km2.. the difference is that CNRs land has about $10 Billion of gold underneath it! :-D
regards
T123
Elise - Gold price tanking today, markets are all down. Looks like we could see a repeat of the March sell off in gold/gold stocks where they got caned to cover other margin calls..
Beep, Beep, Beep - Just backing up the truck now, if gold tanks again, we could be talking about the trade of a lifetime here..
regards,
T123
https://www.lse.co.uk/media/whats-hot-bmy-pur-cnr-lloy-hsba-amzn-aapl-fb-googl.html
While President Trump accuses us of consuming #FakeNews, which publisher reassures us we're reading books not election fiction; which two dual listed explorers have delivered golden news; how has 2020 altered the fortunes of banking stocks and will the US tech stocks be hostage to revenue generation or reputation maintenance? Sarah talks us through a smorgasbord of UK and US stocks that are fireside staples.
regards,
T123
Elise - strange to see some biggish sells this am. I dont think now is the time to be selling here at all. Quite the opposite in fact..
Cambells - I wanted to come back to you on your point about fund raising, ergo, extra dilution. After ten years here, and seeing dilution affect us all to pay for the exploration etc, I think any extra dilution for increased production, is not necessarily going to be such a bad thing..
A few questions I have been thinking about overnight:
1) Has toll milling been shelved? Personally I dont mind if it has, as Calibre have messed us about long enough. Fast track to gold production? Yes please!
2) No mention of 50koz scenario now - just straight to 120koz from the 3 pits. If the decision has been made to purchase and build a plant that size immediately, it will be huge news. Yes it means greater dilution but all the other gold juniors I have seen react extremely well to a financing decision, even with larger dilution. As the gold price has peaked, I have been saying we should go big or go home!
Regarding dilution, I think it might not be too bad tbh. If a 50koz plant was $50M, a 120koz plant might only be $80-100M. At 70% gold/bank loans and 30% equity, that would be $15M equity for 50koz or $30M equity for 120koz. At 50p a share, perhaps 50M extra shares for the larger plant, instead of 25M extra for the smaller plant. In the grand scheme of things, thats not too bad at all! Condor could be a top 5 gold producer on AIM producing 170koz pa with "only" 200M shares in issue. Compare that to Centamin etc with 1 billion shares, Ā£1billion market cap etc.
Also, given that cashflow from the larger plant right from the outset will be in the region of 120koz x $1500 profit with say $700AISC and gold potentially at $22-2400 at that point... The extra $30-50M (ballpark) for the larger plant would be paid back in just 6 months (!) of production.. and I am wondering if the mine studies have highlighted that to MC and JM and they are just sucking up the dilution and going for it. With these gold prices, and the low interest rates, huge monetary stimulus, potential inflation etc, i think they are looking 2 years down the line to first production..
Personally, after the big hint in that video yesterday, I think MC will release the news in the next 4-6 weeks, thats whats exciting for us after so many years here. Barring another stock/gold crash like March, I cant see the SP dropping much below 40p now.. And if it does, then I for one may be kitchen sinking it.. ;-)
regards
T123
This video is much better than the RNS!
regards
T123
AF - yes I think the mill is sorted too. Question is, how big is it going to be, and at what cost?
Just listened to the video in full. Despite being a LTH of Condor, Ive been a bit frustrated at the lack of news here recently. Particularly in regards to the company being held to ransom by landholders with remaining 7%. Clearly this is no longer a blocker for progress as the technical drilling has started and they own all the land for the TSF and the plant location. This update is the news I have wanted for 2-3 months i.e MC has said enough is enough, and its all started happening.
Hopefully the local landowners will see the progress and realise they are in danger of losing out on a generous offer for their land if they dont give in. The government in Nicaragua wants to see this go ahead. They will issue a CPO and take it for probably a lot less than CNR are offering them unless they are not careful. This project is of national strategic importance and its already been delayed 3 years!
Highlights from this video for me?
60 days for the geotech drilling (probably by end of the year I guess)
Very close to plant deposit/purchase. Spent 6 months negotiations on the plant. When they have placed an order, give construction timelines then - good news in the near future for the market, "reduce the timeline for production".. ?
"Once we have placed AN ORDER on the plant" - This seems to me to suggest a brand new plant from China, not 2nd hand.. ? At which point Shandong or similar will realise from the plant suppliers whats happening and start waking up to a potential bid here I think, but I digress!
Once everything in country, then 12 month build period.
Fully funded for 6 months. i.e until full plant financing happens I guess.
Regarding gold operations..
Planning on 120,000 of gold per year from 3 feeder pits. No mention this time of 50k oz plant first.. thats intriguing. How much is it for a larger plant compared to 50koz? I wonder if the quotes have actually come in a lot less than the $120M capex from the PFS and they are going big instead.. I really hope so, as its what we all want with the high gold prices just now..
50,000 of underground can be permitted and added in to give the 170koz pa target I mentioned earlier.
580 sq km project area, with loads of drill targets. More infill drilling on Mestiza being planned so should announce gold grades to the market again.
Expect $2500 POG in 12 months
55 people, 5 new people hired, hydrologist, architect, mine planner, civil engineer and Luc English.
93% of Land - held back on studies until land acquired. They own 100% for TSF and Plant Location.
Taken decision, 7% will not stop the project, buy the balance of the land.
Now running as if they have 100% of the land
Start clearing the land by end of the year.
Fast track to construction decision over next 6-12 months, presumably while plant is being built/shipped.
No mention of toll drilling.
The video is much better th
if his sorted mill we dont need toll mining whitch for me is good ..my main worry is next cash raise
It's all a matter of interpretation, he strongly alludes to having sorted a deal for the mill and we will know shortly.
as regards the land, that is all but in the bag and as he says, he's now treating the project as if we own 100%, so clearly confident of government support should a CPO be required.
Af, Mark doesn't particularly say we have the mill. He's been talking about finalising the purchase of the processing plant for many months.
Nice confident short video. Good to hear he's not letting this last 7% of land stop condor in progressing with all the studies etc. I'd be interested to know how much we can do without this 7% and where this 7% is location wise.
So we have the mill !