The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Toll deal. I appreciate the grades may be higher on the feeder pits and therefore economic commercial better. But the tested samples were from La India and worked when gold price was a lot lower
To be honest a toll deal from any of the locations would be good news for condor, and be a game changer. Could we do both locations ?
Yes. I meant without. I appreciate we have the main pit but as i understand it is the feeder pits that have the higher grade so making the trucking costs worthwhile.
"Also as i understand a toll deal is not really possible with the permits for the feeder pits"
Simms - could you expand a little please on this? I dont follow... did you mean "withOUT the permits for the feeder pits" ?
regards
T123
Also as i understand a toll deal is not really possible with the permits for the feeder pits so MC has got to crack on and make sure that is a priority and close land acquisition deals. He needs to just sit on these two tasks until they are done.
On the plus side - Gold price is proving pretty resilient at 1450-1500USD an oz. That can only be a good thing when you plan to produce it for under $700 per oz. ( And I think that AISC is conservative actually)
We are now ten+ years into a bull run on stocks that quite a few are starting to call time on.. gold stocks surely have a bright future - although I suppose whether this one will ultimately succeed remains to be seen..
regards,
T123
Aguila ,have you revised your declaration that we are nearly there on land aquisitions ?
Also you intimated that calibre deal was unlikely to finalise not so long ago.
Personally I too think there is a fair chance of a toll deal.I am curious though to know if the land aquisition will have a bearing on this .
They revived the dying FOSTERVILLE gold mine and transformed it into the lowest operating cash cost of $190/oz in the industry. They know what they are doing.
It does have the feel of a company which is plagued by one issue after another and the project is just never quite happening. We thought permits were the be all and end all, then they came and we are in a far worse position now in terms of share price. One thing is clear and that is that the land acquisitions have been dragging on for too long and clearly there are issues. We hope they can be resolved but what do we really know. Also I note from the recent MD&A, there are substantial costs before we even get to the line build. Don’t have the figures to hand but I think there is $15-20m first and certainly feels like any income for the company is far away. I’m not negative per se but I do feel that there is no clear easy fix to our problems and it doesn’t seem we will be getting what we all want to see I.e. plan for the minds build and definitive timescales to production. I just hope I’m wrong here.
Very good post aguila, thank you.
Just need MC to do it - been talking about it for a long time now.
Market (and investors) need to see action and delivery.
I am confident we will see this soon.
Rothrock, it is excellent that Calibre is drilling 40,000m at La Libertad and Pavon before end 2020. A great sign of confidence in Nicaragua given the troubles last year. La Libertad is running out of ore and of course Calibre's bet is they can find more ore and extend the Life of Mine. It will take at least 24 months to bring a new discovery into production (absolute minimum), even if it is an extension of an existing mineral resource. 12 months to drill and at least 12 month for the technical studies: geotechnical, hydrology and the other dozen technical studies and then permits. The application process for an exploration permit is 12 months minimum. Condor could starting trucking ore within 3 to 4 months. its permitted, good to be mined
Calibre can pay for their 40,000m drilling by toll refining permitted high grade ore from la India. drill for free.
Imagine the 2,000tpd gets switched back on and calibre make $40 per tonne free cash flow, after operating costs: 350 days x 2,000tpd x $40 per tonne = US$28M net to Calibre. Why $40 per tonne, because Condor can high grade La India open pit at 4g/t gold. therefore at $1,450 gold, 4 gram rock = $186 per tonne.
Like I said, government already offered them ore from some place else - they said no. They have many options and will probably exhaust them all before working w/ MC or partnering with the government owned asset. Pavon is closer to La Libertad than Condor fyi. Time will tell. I guess more patience.
They care a lot about their own Share increase. The way they do that is increasing their own resource and production.
The idle mill is ALREADY PRICED into their share price. If they turn it back on and feed it with their own newly discovered ore how do you think their share price will react VS making a deal with condor? Spending 8 mill is not guaranteed, but obviously was a risk they were willing to take before buying.
Rockroth, why are you so sure they will be no toll refining? Calibre has announced it has put one of the ball mills at La Libertad on idle, they reduces capacity by 2,000tpd to circa 4,200tpd. So there you have it, there is an operating mill, within trucking distance with 2,000tpd space capacity, currently unutilised. Condor can high grade its permitted pit at say 4 to 5g/t gold and fill that idle ball mill. The grade is high enough for both Calibre and Condor to make money. Can be a revenue or profit sharing agreement. Calibre has a sunk cost of G&A and paid cash for an under utilised plant.
Trucking 5 to 6 hours from Pavon ? there is only 80k oz gold at Pavon, no reserves, only inferred material. no wonder they have to do more drilling
Hi Tester, I accept all you say in your response. I was venting frustration as I feel that MC has wasted some years on aspects of this project, I also feel that he has been too slow to adapt his plans. He should have ditched the resettlement plans long before he did, he should have also stopped spending money on the drill bit long ago. We have had a good resource for many years, he could have gone down the route of smaller scale production a long time ago.
He isn't a geo or a miner and I have strong doubts about him being the man to take this project forward. Perhaps it is time for someone more qualified to take up the reigns . Someone with the required skill set, drive and industry contacts?
I would rather hold shares in a gold miner producing 30 to 40 thousand oz than in a sinking project still proclaiming the potential to produce 120,000 whilst the waters are lapping around our waists.
Reality is we need some promises to be delivered on time.
1 permits
2 land purchases
3 toil mining agreement
4 small scale production
The market has lost faith in MC, and to rebuild trust we need some delivery on time
JM May know more, but us on the outside do not
They're spending 8 million on drilling La Libertad looking to expand.
MC wont give you a straight answer for that question. You can forget about tolling to El Limon. Their team also believe La Libertad has 4-5 years mine life ahead of it before it runs out. They talked about trucking Pavon too if needed.
https://www.commodity-tv.com/play/calibre-mining-optimizing-acquired-two-small-gold-producing-mines-from-b2-gold/
I heard the government also owns small open pit gold assets that can be offered to Calibre if they need. They have many options before going to MC. They're looking for a 3X market cap re-rate to peer producer average and then they will go shopping for more mines in Americas.
Even tho there was big dilution, their share price keeps treading higher from the low point of last years Nica protests.
"Are we sure that even toll mining can be done before the land acquisitions ?"
An excellent question! I understand that the 1000ha of surface rights for the land are for the siting of the plant, waste dump, tailings etc.. But I dont fully know the answer to that question - an excellent question to ask MC I would say if anyone feels like asking him in London this week..
regards
T123
good post tester.I think the land purchases may turn out to be not as in the bag as some think.
I was reading an enca article which mentions riot police and one protester from the village that has had to flee because of harrasment.of course he may not be a landowner.
Yes I think also 3 years from full production and an election before then and more dilution ,hopefully from options and not sub 20 p raising.
Are we sure that even toll mining can be done before the land aquisitions ?
I appreciate the frustrations here, I really do. But you have to look at it this way
1) To buy a plant, you need the money and someone to lend you it.
2) You also need somewhere to put the plant when you have bought it, and that takes land (and the permission of landowners to build on that land - hence the 350/1000 discussion)
3) To high grade the ore from Mestiza and America, you need the permits submitted (in next ten days) to extract it - hopefully being approved a month or two later..
4) To get the money for the plant, you need a damn good investment case based on a solid PFS or even BFS (thats why they call it a Bankable Feasibility Study). The best numbers for that study will come from the approval of permits to extract high grade ore from Mestiza and America (i.e 80kpa to 120kpa etc). So we are dependent on 3)
5) The best numbers for any toll deal will come from high grade ore from Mestiza and America - again dependent on 3)
So while I totally appreciate the frustration from your comments (I have been here 10 years as well) - there is a process to be followed here that just takes time - and its all a bit dependent on getting certain ducks in a row.. like approval of the mestiza and america permits..
My best case for progress would be:
1) Get the permits approved on Mestiza / America within 2-3 months
2) Get a toll deal agreed with Calibre or even NMC to high grade and truck that ore for income
3) Use the revenue produced as an income stream on which to base debt for the plant
4) Use the money to also up the offer prices and get the land purchases agreed.
5) Get a construction decision to build Xtpd plant to produce the required 120koz of gold per year
6) Start building plant (whilst still toll refining for income, possible extra drilling) and in 2-3 years start making $100M a year
AIMHO
regards
T123
I am starting to feel that you may have a point. Every time that I listen to Mark give a presentation I now think "here we go again, the same old bull". Material progress is what we need, not waffle and promises but real solid progress. I know, we just need a bit more patience and a bit more and a bit more adinfinitum.
Mark stop dragging your feet, stop frittering money on drilling as the market doesn't care, stop repeating the same presentation.
Instead buy a small second-hand plant, high grade some ore and start making some bloody money. That has to be a better option than the drivel he keeps repeating. No one wants to buy us, no one wants to do a toll deal, we are too small and management unproven to fund 100+ million.
Get on with it man!
Ah that's better.
More patience needed my ar5e...what a waste of 10nyeara this crock of 5hits been .