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Mr lion .very good new years tip.hope you are reaping the rewards .
Oil a big part of the costs, but not all of it.
-Best case study is the colonization of south africa and all its mines (50% of all the gold mined in history) - cecil rhodes
-Swiss Banking History
-London Gold Fix
-Jp Morgan & & his son, John D, Rockefeller, & Nathaniel/Natty/Alphonse/Guy Rothschilds - how they monopolized industries. and they do own the banks through Blackrock UBS fidelity, vanguard, state st and 100s of funds that people never heard of.
-Anglo American formation & establishment - Oil & Gold. Creation of each oil company - Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon, Aramco etc
Books on each topic are the best source to be honest. When you read a couple books on each topic & person you start to connect the dots.
Probably sound crazy to a lot of people so i will stop there on this topic.
So, coming at it from the other direction, the theory is that inflation rises - I guess it's mostly the oil price which would have a direct impact on AISC, which then goes on to affect transportation, etc, etc - and so "they" raise the gold price - I guess we're actually talking about banks buying gold as a hedge against inflation? And that "they" don't raise the gold price (barring short-term spikes) for any other reason than inflation? Interesting theory. Your chart is quite compelling, but correlation is not causation. Got any links to somewhere that might explain the theory in more detail? I'm a little skeptical TBF, but I like to think I have an open mind!
Actually not really cherry picked EL...that was the time when Lundin bought out Pierre Lassonde's shares in Calibre . Right away his whole entourage pushed up the price bc of his reputation and ability to create value. 5 year chart your still in the red regardless: calibre would be down -33% while condor down -66%. Gold is cyclical and to be honest nobody should have been in this space let alone this company then.
The price of gold is managed and they raise it only in response to rising inflation which causes AISC to rise. Thats the reason for the '34 gold price revaluation, 1970s revaluation and early 2000s revaluation. This chart below is good visual of the last boom. The margins are all within a range. nothing extremely outrageous. People think gold goes to $10000 and AISC will stay at $800.
RR: You may be broadly right in what you say, but cherry-picking your time period for Calibre performance from the end of 2018 is a little disingenuous. The 5-year chart doesn't look quite so rosy. https://www.ii.co.uk/shares/calibre-mining-corp/TSE:CXB.
I saw somewhere that the IFC is now only (or at least primarily) interested in investing debt in very large projects. Quite apart from all the other issues which we are already aware of, we may actually just be too small a project for them to be interested.
Also, can't quite figure out why the AISC would rise with the gold price? Or do you just mean it will rise across the industry, as previously uneconomical deposits become economical?
Noel: You may also be right, but I struggle to take people seriously when they use phrases like 'MSM'. Seems to be right out of the phrase book of the alt-right/red-pill/conspiracy theory groups. Doesn't make you wrong, but if you want to convince people, best to stay away from such loaded language IMHO. No offense meant.
Yes roth, holding across a number of goldies is best .I switched more to producers over a year ago and it has worked good so far.gonna keep hold here as I reckon we are near the bottom . I only see the toll deal making much difference to the sp .from what I see only early stage discoveries and successful producers are really benefiting .
Once we have feeder pit conclusion, hopefully positive news in the coming short-term, these hold the highest concentration of gold ore so is the best ore for any chance of toll refining or trucking to xyz plant. That for me is a key catalyst for confidence. Regardless Randy Martin is on board presumably to put together a range of plans snd to access his contacts. I am pretty sure MC is leaving no stone unturned to get some early revenue as that is his plan. As to Calibre they are losing millions but on a path to recovery and they have seen a 50% rise in their stock on the back of gold prices rising but i still think the operational news of leaving a mill dormant is of interest. Calibre are business people and that is bad news for them unless they get it working again soon. Anyway MC is deep into all of this and of course it would be silly to hand over the reins at this juncture. That would lead to a massive loss of confidence and shock to the share price, can be any more depressed! . Ross Beaty was a enthusiastic buyer of stock at 40p many many years ago and above and IFC (bless their socks) pumped in at 90p a share. you cant knock MC for very impressively getting around £60m of cash in the door. That is not easy to do. So much could happen over next few months in concrete news that i see far more upside than downside. I think a lot of things will quickly happen once the feeder pits are confirmed as “decision” time is nearing but MC cannot pursue them until this small matter and that of closing land deals. We must be tantilisingly close in my view. There is cash sloshing around the gold miners and as soon as they smell gold at Condor i am sure many would be interested in some deal to help bring to fruition. wishful thinking maybe but so far, ever so slowly, things are happening. Just wish it would be a little quicker. sit back and enjoy the calm as i think that will change.
so true, already switched one third of my holding into Calibre and one other producer in Canada. What an awful waiting game this has become...glad, my average is quite low.
We have permits for nearly one and a half years and not too much progress.
Lost too much time on talking about toll mining with B2/Calibre. This will never happen in my opinion...
We need some other solution how to evolve this project...not sure we will hear in the next future.
Nevertheless I dont understand Randy Martins role..he took such a large stake and no idea what next...?
Mc specifically pointed out that the calibre shareholders were massively diluted. He Didn't think it was good for their shareholders to raise the $100m and also didn't think they could raise it to acquire b2 mines. Calibre mining shareprice has tripled since end of 2018 while cnr is -34% in same period. Gold is at 1550. IFC is going to lend hundreds of millions to Lundin for a mine build in another similar unstable country (to be announced pretty soon).
Single asset developers are not being rewarded especially in tough jurisdictions. They are too high risk for funds to own and wont touch them. This is a huge change from the last bull cycle. Many companies get only a fraction of what they spent on developing their asset. That is the game unfortunately throughout the history of gold mining especially if the establishment does not like your management. IFC obviously wanted to punish this stock for a reason. Also have to realize that if gold booms than it also means that ASIC are also on the rise. Might be a scenario where gold is over 2000 and this one hasnt moved. Only then will Mellon and MC be sitting there and reflecting the missed opportunities and the ones they did not disclose to shareholders.
diversify even within gold space. It's Safer so winners can absorb the losers if need be. Make sure this is not your only gold company u guys hold.
Management have proven up good assets in and around La India......but how could the permitting/Nic troubles have been managed differently? I think the 'relocation' issue could have been avoided, but troubles and elections will always be a risk. I guess it would be easy for MC to 'get out of the way' but would not want him to 'do a Sirius' on me!
Sounds more to me like he's saying "Mark get lost so we can come in and suck all the wealth out of this rich vein for ourselves and screw the existing shareholders".
If I'm wrong then why doesn't he put a reasonable offer on the table that would reward all existing shareholders for the time and risk taken to develop la India?
Sod off, would rather Mark stay at the helm, he's earned shareholders trust the hard way. I wouldn't support him getting out of the way for someone else unless there was a damn good incentive.
In fairness to MC any CEO of a gold explorer going into production still would have the same challenges. We need to complete purchase of all land, we need ro wait on Nicaraguan govt to sign off extra feeder pits. Once those two are signed off the company moves forward. There were be a clear path to toll refining, there will be a derisk to those willing to pony up cadh for mine build. At the moment we are relying on 3rd parties. Once we get past this reliance it is just a process that MC is probably very energetically eager to deliver on. We have over 40%+ ownership by Very tight group of shareholders many in from a long time ago ponying up £60m to date into the project so well into the red, not to mention opportunity cost of tying up £60m for 8 years. These investors would only consider a deal where that was respected and if it came along maybe its an option but these shareholders do not need to sell at a big loss. They are hardly going to lay out the table and serve the food only for someone to come along and eat the delights. once feeder pits and toll refining are further forward i would expect us to be a good deal north of where we are today. if we get to 40p then raising finance and dilution is probably more pallarable. However dilution is only a bad thing when companies need it to cover debts or cover bad business. We are looking to cash to create a mine that is lookingbat a 5m ounze gold play. That is $7.5bn of gold so a mine of $120 to access that sort of number is a pretty good investment when AISC is $750. Basically 50% of above figure is potential cashflow over 20-30 years of mine life. i would be happy to dilute to make that happen frankly because we are unlocking a possible golden goose.
RothRock, I couldn't agree more, spot on.
Mark listen to this interview and take note. You have done a great(ish) job so far but it is now time to step aside and hand over control to someone who has the necessary skill set.
Clive Johnson's indirect message to Mark Child starting at 19:06 in the video. Someone who has a good project (pretender), needs to get out of the way. take shares in another company that can actually build the mine successfully. Great interview. Clive summarizes his whole career and talks what is going on in the gold space. He's built many mines and is deep inside the web of Kinross & Anglogold.
Wg,2 years ago cnr had 62 m share s.now there are. 95 m .In that time they appear to have bought very little of the land .anybody who thinks there will be no more dilution is dreaming. It is to be expected .we hopefully are funded for the coming year .It is not a criticism just fact .
Everything I have seen mc say in interviews states that there will be an element of equity .
As aguila says ,a toll deal is really important and can really change the project .without it we are definitely looking at a small scale mine build and then the project is at the mercy of the gold cycle. I still hold here and await news on toll ,permits and land deal.
as for your continual personal attacks,I am 2 p from breakeven ,how bout you angry pants.you were happy reading jibbos forecast of £2/3 sale in a year. Like 7 years ago .
EL, you are spot on with the market, it doesn't believe there will be a mine, there have been so many delays, a 2 year permitted delay due to the original plan resettling 1,000 people, thankfully mine infrastructure has been redesign to avoid any resettlement and a year delay due to 330 being killed in first half 2018. The market has given up, hence so many negative posts. That's behind us now. Permits have been granted to construct and operate a mine and it about to get materially bigger with 1.2M oz gold permitted for extraction. MC has been saying production within 2 years.
A DCF Model takes into account the upfront capex costs to production. so the fag packet US$300M remains, excluding 1.2M oz gold, which should be $30 per oz gold in the ground and District Play on the 580 sq km land package, another US$30M to US$50m....once construction path is clear.
Dilution. The best way to avoid dilution is to get into production with no capex, without building a mine. That's the toll refining option, take 10% of the permitted pit and truck it to Calibre's mines. Calibre has a 2,000tpd ball mill on care and maintenance. 10% of the reserve is 67,000 oz gold or $90M in revenues to be shared. that should lead to a significant re-rating if it can be pulled off.
if toll deal can't be struck, there is no way Condor should raise US$120M and dilute the shareholders to hell. Randy Martin at Nicaraguan milling has built 5 gold mines in Central America, Ian Stalker a mining engineer as recently joined the Board. MC said in the Commodity TV interview, he is looking at a 2 phase approach. so minimum dilution
Steingred... hmm, troll in sheep's clothing. Always has a sting in everytging he contributes here. Often resorts to 'dilution' as if it's a fact. MC consistently states dilution will be minimised. There are alternatives including cash generation, forward selling gold, JV, .....
Good post El.yes aguila doesnt factor in dilution. Which of course will be part of any financing and at this sp level is likely to be pretty hefty .still have the land purchases too to complete ,possibly before finance I would imagine .
I have my own extremely bullish fag-packet numbers, which is why I'm here, however the fact that the market is currently valuing us at little more than a sixth of your 120p per share valuation tells us something. It tells us that the market simply does not believe it will happen, or at least, won't happen without crippling dilution, which would knock any per-share valuation on the head. Now the market could be a dumbass. Probably is. But it's the market we all have to deal with none-the-less. Due to Nic political situation and local protests, the market is likely to remain somewhat skeptical until we're actually pulling gold out of the ground and selling it, but in the relatively near term, the mine financing is the single biggest monster to slay IMO. If we can get finance without crippling dilution, and a concrete date for mine construction start, then it's very much game on. But until that happens, multi-bagger dreams may have to wait.
La India open pit of 900,000 oz gold at 3.0g/t gold is permitted for extraction, technical studies for Tailing Storage Facility, waste dump, mine schedule, power, mine design all underway
Mesitza Open pit 120,000 oz gold at 8.6g/t gold, ESIA for permit submitted end November 2019. America open pit 97,000oz gold at 4.0g/t gold, ESIA submitted end November. Both feeder pits should be easier to permit as they use the same processing plant, which is already permitted
My guess is that Condor will have 1.2M oz gold mineral resource permitted for extraction this quarter. let's say they produce 70% = 840,000 oz gold @ $1,500 oz = $1,260M. breakeven is $700 oz gold. Therefore $675M free cashflow over 7 years = $96m free cash flow per annum or 4 times the current market cap in free cash flow per annum. apply a simple DCF model. NPV of $300M? Valuation today should be 0.5 x NPV, with all permits in place = $150M = 120p per share. no value given for 1.2M oz gold underground and gold district play