Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Great analysis Jimmy and I’m sure the Bod are in thinking something very similar
Just hope they see it through to production
Got that feeling we’re going to get low balled
Hi redeye,
You are very perceptive. Here are my, thoughts on anchois west, obviously based only on the presentation.
Anchois west is not an area I have previously focused, pre well it was possible up side in the B sand at 128 bcf of gas.
The new presentation now upgrades this to “derisked upside” which is a different classification to anchois north which is “additional low risk targets”. The reason I suspect there is a difference is that in the B sand the fault separating the B sand in anchois central from anchois west is not a sealing fault and spectral decomposition is now showing a continuity of this gas filled reservoir. Strong candidate to increase 2C reserves.
The latest presentation now clearly show the continuity of the M and O sands into Anchois west area. Which were not previously included as appraisal targets.
The fact that the O sand was encountered with both gas and water will allow the seismic to be recalibrated to derisk this additional upside in anchois west.
The priority is to get to cashflow as quickly as possible from the current estimated 769 bcf and from that cashflow bring anchois north and anchois west into production at a later stage.
Now there are many ways to skin a cat to progress this very exciting low risk project to add value for shareholders as quickly as possible.
We know that the 361 bcf of previous proven gas reserves from the a and b sands will generate $1.5 billion free cashflow, undiscounted, to chariots 75% interest. We can double that for the new proven reserves at anchois central.
With $3billion of future cashflow to leverage , consider this.
Farm out 15% of the licence for a carried two well exploration programme in the lixus licence area,
In addition, farm in investor agrees to drill anchois north 600bcf target to include the Oursin sub nappe deep prospect of 1000 bcf as well as anchois west prospects , say 300bcf.. The cost would be say $20 million anchois north , and $15 million anchois west. To finance the drill the farm in partner puts up the cash and get repaid a premium, let’s say they double their money to $70 million to be repaid from from the 75% chariot cashflow from anchois central which is going into production.
As an alternative, such financing could be provided as part of the debt financing or as subordinated debt to the main project finance, increasing the project capex from $300 million to $335 million but increasing low risk reserves from current 675bcf plus anchois north of 600bcf plus anchois west of 300bcf plus higher risk Oisin at 1000 bcf.
I am sure there are Usa hedge funds who would do such a deal.
Now that’s exciting.
Jimmy
Jimmy thank you for your continued constructive analysis and input to this board.
Great Post again Jimmy... Many thanks for this excellent research...... Did you have any thoughts on that huge seismic show, going very deep from the O sands to the left of An 1 well?... It looked good to me, but I'm no expert.. Have I misread the picture.
I have reviewed latest well results presentation and compared it to the pre drill prognosis and estimated . Firstly the initial well results Rns stated no water was found in the initial analysis of the data and we now know there was water in O sand which was compartmentalised and there was a second gas water contact in the b sand no 2 which was a new reservoir.
Obviously my 2C estimates of reserves are back of envelope , so here goes.
1. A sand as per prognosis 114 bcf
2. B sand per prognosis 247 bcf
3. B sand no 2 new reservoir 80 bcf.
4.C sand per prognosis 164 bcf
5. M sand very much thicker reservoir increased to same as C sand , 164 bcf
6. o sand reduced to nil for 2c calculation.
Total 769 bcf estimated 2c
However, the o sand has been derisked down dip with a high chance of success , however because it’s compartmentalised I have reduced the reserves to 200 bcf based on spectral decomposition , chance of success 64%.
There are an estimated up to five additional very thin gas bearing sands below log resolution. The lateral continuity of the sands needs to be established by further seismic analysis in order to add reserves, alternatively they need to be verified to logs at the anchois 1 well. While there is proven gas here I can’t attribute a reserve, possible upside 30 bcf because the porosity and permeability are so good.
The pre drill prognosis for anchois north and O footwall was approx 450 bcf, we can now add reserves for the c, m sands, new estimate 600 bcf.
Increased chance of success to 75%
This is all good news and definitely commercial. Obviously to be audited.
The presentation described the development as likely to be a three well producers. This makes a lot of sense as the reservoirs to the north are thicker . My guess is that a likely field development would be as follows.
Anchois 1 , produce from a , b sands, and be deepened to produce from the O sand.
Anchois 2 , produce c and m sands.
Anchois 3 , produce from A, B , C M and O .
The production profile described in the presentation was initially at between 50 and 60 k mcf per day. Then increasing after year 3.
My reading of this is use the production cashflow in years 1 to 3 to repay debt and use surplus cash to drill anchois north prospects of 600 bcf derisked and to deepen anchois 1 to produce from the deep O sands.
Big increase in reserves and production without shareholder dilution.
Jimmy
Is the presentation and Q&A being put online does anybody know?
First revenue is key here, I'm really interested in understanding that process/timeline in some detail.