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If, like me, you bought a house when mortgage interest rates were at 10-15%, you had to manage the interest payments whilst inflation gradually took care of the loan to value ratio of the principal asset. Whereas now, with interest rates so low, the temptation is to load up on cheap debt. The problem is that if inflation moves higher, the interest may become unaffordable before inflation has a chance to reduce the debt to manageable levels.
In which case, we get debt defaults. Whether at personal, business or government level.
So, can anyone explain how the current level of debt can possibly get inflated away at any speed whilst still being able to afford the interest payments?
Surely, the real problem is debt default and the dire implications on the banks and fiat currency.
Has anyone heard any of these MMT economists provide a credible solution?
If defaults keep interest rates pegged, then gold or similar will continue to shine and we are invested in the right place.
Hi Sastech!
I think the point is that the central banks will NOT raise interest rates to rein in inflation over the next few years. They will let the economy run "hot" if they can, perhaps dangerously so. In truth, it's the only realistic way out of the dreadful debt situation we are already in. The trick for the central banks will be to not let inflation out of hand and turn into hyper-inflation.
IMO, this is a good time to borrow money to buy a house, if the banks will let you. Payments won't rise (as interest rates will remain low), but inflation should whittle away at the real value of the loan.
And, yes, gold should shine under this scenario.
As for Modern Monetary Theory (aka the Magic Money Tree), I think I posted Douglas Adams' proposal to adopt the leaf as legal tender yesterday. It's just like that.
Thanks for your considered response TBTT,
with Central Banks all operating the same strategy and in concert perhaps the debt could be managed, but there is the possibility that weaker economies get hit with inflation rising faster. I wonder where the UK sits in this hierarchy.
Like you, I am more heavily in cash than usual at the moment along with gold miners. Shanta being one of my largest, in which Odey Asset Management holds 18%, so if he goes soft on gold, that's a big wedge to offload onto the market.
I'm more of a longer-term holder, been in CEY since 2013, but it's increasingly difficult to know how to manage risk in these times. Some have chosen the likes of Bitcoin as a store of value, but if the Chinese unlock Quantum computing and can crack any security codes, rather than antagonise the world by hacking military codes, they might prefer a more benign show of power and crack Bitcoin. At least with gold you can touch it, bury it and dig it up later!
The fallacies and failings of past and present Conservative governments
Quite so Sasteck, In the eighties when the old Crone and her bunch of Tory bankster’s were selling the what already belonged to the gullible and sometimes selfish people at a knock down price (Council social housing, Water,Gas,Electric & other publicly owned utilities, Crown post offices, public transport and North Sea Gas whilst also cutting funding to education, the NHS & all other public services, whilst the spivs in the city brandished loads of money and changed their Porches on a weekly basis, it was tough for most ordinary people and certainly anyone starting out.
My wife and I both had reasonable salaries, but in those days of what are now brandished as being cheap housing mortgage rates were 13%-15% if you could get one, and the building society would not take my wife’s salary into account, they would only take the highest salary of a couple and because I worked in Municipal Transport and my wife was a postal; officer in a Crown office both targets for Tory privatisation we were regarded as high risks by most building societies.
We had to go on a mortgage waiting list despite being regular savers with our with our society, provide a 10% deposit and in addition I was required to take out an endowment policy by the society, also in this days house & contents insurance had to be through the society by direct debit
We found a house that we could afford and the building society said a mortgage would be available in three months so were forced to take a bridging loan to cover that period at 21.5%.
Needless to say money was tight and all our furniture was either unwanted stuff from family and friends, or from the auction, including a BW TV that worked sometimes, my car was a former council MK2 escort van and holidays were a week at my Aunties in Bournemouth if we were lucky.
Quite a difference I notice when young couples start out today, everything is new, even a car or two in many cases and mostly on credit, although we always knew that if interest rates dropped from double digits it would really be of no benefit because the house prices would just rise, swings and roundabouts!
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2004/apr/18/womenandmoney.observercashsection
https://www.familymoney.co.uk/uk-mortgages/uk-mortgage-guide/history-mortgages-uk/
I remember when we had this clown as chancellor and my mortgage rate increased four times in single morning!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/black-wednesday-john-major-norman-lamont-1992-bank-cost-a8460626.html
Our government is just kicking the can down the road by trying to shore up the broken, corrupt, and totally unfit for 21st century system, when instead radical change is needed with multinational cooperation to initiate new fiscal and trading practices that can deliver a better sustainable life to everyone and everything on our planet.
"If the Chinese unlock Quantum computing and can crack any security codes, rather than antagonise the world by hacking military codes!"
Very good point Sastech, in fact you reminded me of a recent conversation I had with an acquaintance in the gold business recently, it seems there are a number of experts of the opinion that the Chinese are capable of cracking those codes any time soon should they choose!
Wonder if "Trumpo" has considered this when he is poking the Chinese with his pointy stick?