Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I am not sure why we have to be sold? The best option we have; is to have better honest management and we can be in better place and value than any best offer.
Let see our management capabilities to improve the production and the quality of communication and work they do. I hope they fined someone can replace Pardey ASAP I am not sure also why J. El-Raghy is very quite like he is not there at a all.
GLTA,
Dan
re- good Candlestick
It was a black Candlestick as it finished below 120p
But is the same Bullish Hammer, can be black or white
note:
BULLISH HAMMER: This pattern occurs at the bottom of a trend or during a downtrend and it is called a Hammer since it is hammering out of a bottom. It is a single candlestick pattern that has a long lower shadow and a small body at or very near the top of its daily trading range.
1-month Candlestick chart
http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5ECEY&width=600&height=300&p=1&t=1&dm=2
Sure, if you read all the RNS today again many investors are buying and adding to their holdings.
I am guessing there is a something is coming soon,
GLTA,
Dan
Bugger Endeavours debt, let them go and whistle, we need to keep Sukari, especially now,!
Why do you think Sawiris is after it, he knows a good thing with even better to come!
Lets get the next results out and then we shall see how things are looking!
It looks like that a good Candlestick finish is on the way
126p is just ridiculous, totally speculative. They'll be back in with something more credible i'm sure !
surely, you would expect 30-50% uptake with a takeover-never mind other bidders? surely a premium
with over 1.2moz gold/annum and aisc below $900 though it's going to get bigger attention from the market.
Given that EDV have already starting courting CEYs shareholders (https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-centamin-m-a-endeavour-mining/endeavour-courts-centamin-shareholders-after-miners-board-rejects-proposal-idUKKBN1Y921X) they clearly are going aggressive, not walking away. My view - CEY shareholders will want it but not at this price given FCF yield, esp, net cash, a better year anticipated ahead. To that end, do think 126p is now absolute basecase. Glad I mopped these up at 115 earlier as called at time
Good point ref the valuation of Endeavour shares although the question would actually become the valuation of the shares of the new combined group. In others words Cey's strong cash position and cash generation would go some way to off-set Endeavour's debt.
Best wishes,
Prof
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said Endeavour’s decision to go public is a ‘classic manoeuvre’ when a company tries to buy a business but they don’t want to talk.
He added that Centamin is an ‘obvious takeover target’ as its Sukari mine in Egypt is one of the biggest gold deposits among any listed miner and is considered a ‘prized asset’, but its share price has been through a few rough patches in the last couple of years due to operational issues.
GETTING CENTAMIN ON THE CHEAP
Mould said, ‘Centamin has been looking at opportunities beyond Egypt for numerous years but there has been no progress towards actually developing a second mine.
‘Getting hitched to Endeavour would create a much bigger company with numerous projects and geographical diversity – something which investors would no doubt be hungry to back.
‘The key sticking point is likely to be price. Centamin probably has the view that its recent sluggish share price isn’t indicative of the true value of the company when taking a long-term view.
‘Endeavour may have to rummage deeper in its pockets to see if it can find a few more nuggets to sweeten the terms of the proposed deal.’
If the largest CEY shareholders accepted it, then you get immediate upside to 126 area. I just don't see them getting away with that price though given heightened cashflow expectations in 2020, share price history over 2019 (i.e. higher levels).
Let's see but strongly expect EDV to sweeten their offer or Barrick (who the Financial Times mentioned) coming in.
I make it that the new group (if it happened) would have over 1.2m oz of gold per annum with AISC below US$900/oz.
There's no chance though that the deal goes through at current offer. The FCF yield is expected to rise at least 7bps next year, other metrics noted earlier too
ElProf - the 126p presupposes that we think Endeavours shares are worth what is being said and I don't agree and would be looking at a minimum of 10% discount when negotiating their shares as a currency against dollars/sterling or any hard currency.
I am sure that all of the Majors are following events closely but as I have said in the past the big boys don't like equal profit share such as EMRA involvement and cey wouldn't fit their core values but who knows values change, especially when/if a merger happens.
I hear about new laws in Egypt but as far as I can ascertain this is for new contracts/concessions BUT with Sawaris behind what is going on with the Endeavour bid then I am sure there will/maybe be some loop holes to exploit.
For 2019 - Currently on an operating margin of around 25%, EPS of 8, free cash yield of 10%. Current investors would be mad to accept the offer
Barrick were referenced in the Financial Times as just one suitor. Newmont maybe another?
Agree.
As they say, "wouldn't want to be OUT over the weekend" :)
Nickel,
Clearly 126p is too low but a lot of negotiating theory says start with a low number (Its called anchoring) and then that is the milestone from which everyone judges improvement. Think about buying a car - you judge how well you have done on how much you got off the asking price. The problem of course is if the initial bid is too ridiculously low you just get told to go away which is what has happened here.
Occasionally, with the car, you are dealing with a chancer who, having made their stupidly low bid and had it rejected, will go off and try the same tactic with another seller. Bidding for a company is different for two reason: firstly there are enormous costs in gathering the information required to make the bid, secondly companies are less common than cars and they differ more from each other so you can't just move on to the next bid (first point also would then apply again).
As such I would expect we will now see another price floated by Endeavour. Ideally they would like to get this to move to friendly bid status, i.e backed by the Centamin Board, but at the very least they would need to interest the big institutional shareholders in order to do it as a hostile bid. I am sure that those discussion are taking place at this very moment and that the institutional shareholders are telling Endeavour to get serious and come back with a far bigger number.
Can see that one broker has guided up for 2020 with a sales rev target of close to $800m with a free cash yield of 17%. The commissioning of ashing plant and PSA oxygen plant expected to materially lift recoveries too from Q4. Am amazed tbh that EDV think they can get away with it around 126p. Similar to SM, think they will be forced to really increase their price otherwise stand a good chance of losing out to another.
'Endeavour's move on Centamin could just be the start of takeover interest for the gold miner' - https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/we-expect-a-bidding-war-for-centamin