Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Yep- Gold, like stocks, can only go up or down... when people are right the first time every says wow, until they are wrong- of course some are never wrong like MADOFF lol... they make money from clicks and subs and are pointless. Look at the last 30years and the charts for pretty much all major investments people make, property, stocks, commodities etc etc. and the times there is a crash- if you add up all the weeks over time - you can calculate the odds of predicting a big crash eg >25% drop v just trading on the chances of your investments going up in 30 years... and yes, I've seen the film the big short, and the stories of the lucky few who got in on recent oil price crash, but what these stories fail to mention in the millions who lost out whilst waiting and predicting these things. I held tight in March2020 and markets are way higher now than before and if you listened to all the doomsayers we should have been at least 50% lower across most markets... the nutty thing is, the doomsayers are still banging on, and those that listened are still sitting on their 30% losses when they bailed ~April2020 on pure fear and waiting - but it will take about a 50% crash now for them to justify their sell and break even, such as been growth since then...
Likely Harry Dent would have sold "Snake oil" in the wild west!
Cowichan this from Wikipedia on Harry Dent’ forecasts and performance:
In 2012 the "Dent Tactical Advantage ETF," symbol DENT, was de-listed having consistently under-performed the market for three years while at the same time charging an egregiously high 1.65% management fee.[7]
In 2012, he began writing weekly articles for the free investment newsletter Survive & prosper, now known as: Economy & Markets, which offers investment advice guided by his belief that a major economic crash is inevitable and that it will drop the DOW all the way to 3,300. As of early 2013, he has amended his predictions slightly to an expectation that the financial crash will begin between the end of 2013 and the first half of 2014.[citation needed]
In 2013, Dent predicted the market would crash again in the Summer of 2013 and would take a further year and a half to recover.[8]
In 2014, while promoting his book The Demographic Cliff in Australia, he predicted a major Australian housing market correction beginning in 2014 after an even bigger one in China.[9] He also predicted that the price of gold would fall to USD$700 an ounce, and has since revised this prediction to 2017.[10]
On December 10, 2016, Dent predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial average could fall 17,000 points as a result of Donald Trump's election win. Less than two weeks later, Dent reversed his opinion and thinks there is short term growth for the US stock market, but demographic forces will keep the economic growth stagnant in the longer term.[11]
Larry Swedroe, writing for CBS Money Watch asks, "Why do people listen to Harry Dent in light of his obvious inability to accurately predict the future?"[14]
Gold may go any way and no one knows so I would ignor the so called pundits and stick to the tea leaves. All the best
Major European stock markets traded higher in the premarket session on Thursday while key companies in the area are releasing their financial statements. Earlier, SAP SE announced its revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 advanced by 6%, while for 2022 went up by 11% to €30.9 billion. During the day, other European firms, such as Louis Vuitton and Volvo, will present their results.
The DAX gained 0.62% at 8:00 am CET, as the CAC 40 added 0.73%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.16%. The Euro Stoxx 50 went up 0.95% a minute later.
The euro improved by 0.10% against the dollar at 7:56 am CET, selling for $1.09251, and the pound grew by 0.06% to go for $1.24048 a minute later.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-25/Gold-to-be-hardest-hit-commodity-in-massive-crash-bear-market-in-early-stages-Harry-Dent.html
"Gold is not a safe haven," he maintained. "I'm predicting that gold goes down to $900 to $1,000. That will be a lot less than other commodities… that is still a 40 to 45 percent fall from here."
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What's this upside-down topsy-turvy world in which we are living?
There is a fair bit going on in the debt markets and in inflation. Some interesting articles by Ray Dalio
We all know that there is no real debt limit because what is called a debt limit never actually limits the debt. It’s a farce that works like a bunch of alcoholics who write laws to enforce drinking limits, and when a limit is reached, they do a farcical negotiation that temporarily eliminates the limit which allows them to have the next drinking binge until they reach the next limit at which time they go through the next farcical negotiation and continue to binge. I gather that this is the 79th farcical negotiation that has taken place.
Not only does this tragically comical ritual lead most people to be confident that the debt limit will be gotten around, but it also tells us that those running our political system lack discipline or they tacitly agree that binge borrowing is OK. I think it makes clear that the long-term prognosis is for the debt bingeing to go on until a crisis ends this dynamic. However, most people seem comforted that the debt limit won’t trigger a debt default and don’t worry about the debt bingeing continuing. That raises the justifiable questions: Is it a good or bad thing that we are getting around this debt limit? Are high debt levels and high levels of new borrowings that require high levels of government selling of debt assets not risky? I think those are reasonable questions as we have been hearing warnings of a debt Armageddon for decades yet none has occurred.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/farce-consequences-debt-limit-ray-dalio/
I am on the beach and throwing a prawn ont he BBQ
HAPPY AUSTRALIA DAY
The Gnome
wtf has that got to do with centamin, keep it gold.
Hi Razors Edge .
Its 21.00 Gold 1948 but dropping a little.
When Shangai opens midnight ,will be the real tester.
But overall the right direction.
On the trot since 4:30 currently $1941.56
+ .2%
'In North Africa Centamin comes in and out of favour in Egypt, while in Ethiopia it looks like KEFI might finally be about to get the long-awaited Tulu Kapi project off the ground.'
You are RICH!
im scratching around, making jam on the fire and making my own wine!
Im hoping that Centamin does start to look up soon. I think I've been here ten years and only about level , but had the divis. If Centamin did manage a big leap (say --up to £1.40 or £1.50) , I'd consider cashing some in and getting some more post office IDS shares as they should eventually start moving again and also paying a divi.
No mention of Centamin?
Cowichan
Why dont you cut and paste the facts as you see them. I would like to have a look
best
the Gnome
Paul you are right, I sold some Centamin for Hoc probably around when they hit parity - Hoc share price has historically been around 40% more than Centamin, however as you point out Hoc continued down and is now far below cey, the politics has been far worse than expected, the main mine under siege etc. However it was only a small percentage of my cey holding that I then bought back, and I haven’t bought or sold either since last Easter and sorting tax, till my small cey top up yesterday. Yes I have been reinvesting dividends in Tharisa as I continue to think it is a great and undervalued company, but the price stays low as despite its huge profits (pe about 2.5) it reinvests the vast majority in growing a new mine, so it is another jam tomorrow but I have great faith, hope I am right as at an average price about 25% above now. Also the market worries about electric car effect on PGM prices but forgets half the Ths profit is now chromium which continues up, just as they think Hoc is still a silver miner whereas now it is mainly and increasingly gold. Cey remains by far my biggest holding and you are quite right I should have kept the faith and reinvested divis here, but also didn’t want even more eggs in one basket. And Tibbs I have a mortgage I wouldn’t have needed if I sold Centamin so you could say overall I am leveraged but it is only about 15% of my total wealth. I couldn’t resist the mortgage as it was 5 years at 0.9%. On £100k the divi should be £30k, and inflation should lift the share price even if it falls in real terms. Maybe foolhardy.
So true Mr Bond, now we know how the cash machine was being funded and the golden flip flops turned out to be just very thin metallised plastic!
Hi Paul,
Still sounds great what you have achieved!
In the meantime you may enjoy this series, the people really have got their priorities right!
https://www.itv.com/watch/martin-clunes-islands-of-the-pacific/2a7772/2a7772a0001
Ben journeys to South America to visit Rhona, a British-born actress who left Hollywood to live alone in a remote valley in Uruguay
https://www.channel5.com/show/ben-fogle-new-lives-in-the-wild/season-17/episode-4
Paul ,Demented cash machine or ATM spitting out cash was along with Golden Flip Flop ,parties from Mr T.
Though you probably knew that.
Oh Happy naieve Days , of years ago. :-)
Unfortunately in real life it is made sure the machine is gone.
But that was before the payments to Government ,50 % of free cash flow started,and before Joseph the CEO decided to cash in his considerable amount of Chips.
From memory , E&OE.
I cannot say that I actually enjoy gardening Mr T and Im not very good or lucky with it. However the apples come in handy but I cannot seem to store them beyond May. The plums have been turned into jam. I need to think about what to try to grow this year and where. For a pretty biggish garden they is not a lot of useful space AND many years ago someone put a load of limestone in to try to help drainage. Each year I try to reclaim a little of it back by digging out the stone and then sifting it and trying to make up the shortage with twigs and compost from the bin. Centamin have my sympathy moving THAT waste.
Very little been going on in the garden. I managed to collect ten wheelborrow loads of leaves to mulch with.
A bit like Centamin ---I keep hoping that this year will be better.
I took blackcurrant cuttings, so in a year, I should have some more of them for the jam. Probably grow less cucucmbers for gherkins this year and one less courgette plant. Turnips and peas will be grown (hopefully) and Tomatoes (had a bit of luck last year) ----and fingers crossed for shallots or onions.
I think Martin Horgan wont give a really good update until he is sure things are going great-------and i think he will underplay anygood news as another knock of trust could really effect the confidence we are slowly gettting back.
Hi Mr Gnome,
I hear the Tory Brexiteers are now in the "Last Chance saloon", they really have shafted the UK!
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,boris-johnson-says-uk-government-was-wrong-to-offer-brexit-without-plan-for-how-leave-vote-would-work_12003.htm
Trump Republicans clearly underperformed, and in Britain, public regret over Brexit—or “Bregret”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/britain-brexit-regret-polling-populism/672467/
We have Dominic Cummings to thank for Boris Johnson's original “get Brexit done” campaign that won him the election. However, during an interview with BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg, Cummings admitted that Brexit could have been “a mistake”.
https://www.joe.co.uk/politics/brexit-may-have-been-a-mistake-admits-dominic-cummings-281538
Guy Hands has said that Rishi Sunak must admit that the Brexit campaign was full of lies, if the party wants his support again.
https://leftfootforward.org/2022/11/billionaire-tory-donor-tells-rishi-sunak-to-admit-that-the-public-were-lied-to-over-brexit/
Cowichan, sorry I think I must be missing something what facts are you referring to?
Sotolo ,
Didn't you say in the past that your Centamin holding was leveraged or on some form of borrowing?
Hi Paul,
Hope you are well and still enjoying your garden and the wildlife!
Yes, I am in agreement with you !
Sotolo --I thought you were in and out of HOC and THS along with Centamin? I seem to remember you saying your Centamin divi was late getting payed and you wanted to put it in THS? (Im sure you were saying that THS were a great company) .
Hoc were up near £3 at one point and THS £1-60? Both are less that Centamin now though. Anyone who reinvested the last Centamin divi, when we were about 84p has done not bad so far (fingers crossed).
When do you think we will be the £3 mark you forecast before the news of the waste came out? Im hoping I'll still be alive by then.
Do any LTH remember when people used the phrase about turning out cash "Like a demented cash machine" ? Im hoping for some higher dividends soon. That might ease the pain of the last few years.
Hopefully they will start to come with a bit more good news. Without setting Mr T off on one. the previous management lost Centamin a lot of trust before Martin Horgan took over. I think he is trying to rebuild that now, with mainly boring "steady as she goes" updates.
Thanks as ever Razor, and for being a consistent part of our lives!