The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1618146937546358785?s=46&t=RgBaM_jOwuU8mTpbEw9PzA
Major European markets are on track for a negative open on Wednesday, ahead of the publication of new economic reports and amid the earnings season. Today, market participants will receive the latest data from the Ifo survey on the business climate in Germany.
At 7:54 am CET, the DAX lost 0.13%, while the CAC 40 was flat. The FTSE 100 rose 0.10%, and Euro Stoxx 50 inched down 0.09%.
The euro improved by 0.21% against the dollar at 7:56 am CET, selling for $1.09042. In comparison, the pound lost 0.06% to go for $1.23282 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Happy hump y’al
Gold currently $1932 per troy ounce.
Waited 9 years for his verdict got out two years ago it was clear the verdict would have no boost tor the share price. Watch your £s here .sorry state of affairs with the old gaurd still pulling the strings. market 22 finally signing off, good night and and god bless .
When you look at the facts in Met testing they test a very small fraction of the ore volume (<0.01%), and invest a very large part of their project capital ... on the results of this absurdly small, biased, sampling. When you look at the assumptions built into the sample of this ultra small portion of the orebody, there are very significant risks inherent. Yet happily they claim 15% accuracy. State your case in facts, as to how one could sample <0.01% of an inhomegnous 3d orebody, sampled by pin pricks (drills, which have strong directional and sample bias), logged inconsistently by several geologists over lets say a 3 year period (think staff training, turnover, developing nations) and lay claim to be accurate to 15%? Please lets stick to the facts. It is NOT an easy task, and it is fraught with dangers. Look at the studies of underperformance in Australia, and then ask, what would be the basis for thinking it would be a lot better performance in Cote Ivoire?
I am most intrigued
the Gnome
when you can't refute the facts one must resort to labels like 'clowns'
none is more disappointed to be uninvested in Egypt than I
I wish every Centamin holder does not lose on their investment , thus I've asked the questions others hadn't - if that makes me a hand waving clown , so be it - but at least the intention was to protect Centamin shareholders from losing sight of the red flags and holding management to task - no good deed goes unpunished , best to all
Yes Steve I have just stuck with Centamin. However the near 50% recent rise makes up a chunk of it and 10 years of around 6% dividends have made another chunk. It is a pretty fantastic year in year out income even if reduced
Spot on goldgnome ,especially ,your last sentence. :-)
Divi tax high too- (of course no cgt or divi taxes paid in isa / sipp). My nervous disposition never lets me hold large stakes in miners for divis - way too high risk and way lower risk assets and funds to gain stream of income- 1 slip and the SP gets battered, and worse if your mine ends up in a war zone!
I was in the "Last Chance Saloon" the other night, and CEY was not there. But it was packed out, and the beer was good
One of the groups I did see drinking hard were Team USA. It looks like the Ponzi scheme they run, has just leveraged up another record!
Most games of chicken do not have trillion-dollar stakes. But such a spectacle is common in America when Republicans in Congress face off with a Democratic president over the debt ceiling. This legal limit on the amount of debt held by the Treasury is periodically raised (whenever they want and there has been a fair amount of want)—but never by enough to avoid a repeated stalemate. Without a bipartisan political deal to raise the ceiling America would be in uncharted and dangerous territory, bumbling into pointless default (recall they defaulted in 1970, but of course they called it something else!!!. recall in 1971 when the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system..it was a convertability problem of a barbaric relic, LOL
On January 19th Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, announced that the country had hit its maximum debt (of $31.381trn) and that she had begun taking “extraordinary measures”—accounting tricks such as deferring pension investments to conserve cash. These measures, which have become routine (!!??), buy several months before the calamity actually arrives, called the “X-date”. The last close call, in 2011 when Barack Obama was president and Joe Biden was vice-president, was resolved with only days to spare, spooking stockmarkets and leading one ratings agency to downgrade the federal government’s credit.
Republicans must repudiate their use of the debt ceiling as a negotiating tactic, and congressional Democrats and the Biden administration must abandon their refusal to negotiate. The American people would welcome these steps as a rare sign of common sense from their leaders.
Common Sense is not common these days! Especially in politics, anywhere!
regards
The Gnome
Intrigued about the Met story you refer to Cowichan.
Do you know that Met testing is done on between 200-400 kgms of "representative ore". There is a fair bit to it, and plenty of room for errors, as has been noted by several studies (the industry tends to bury the bad results but sometimes bankruptcy is a bit difficult to bury). Some reading that is fairly reasonable in describing the process
https://www.ausimm.com/globalassets/insights-and-resources/minerals-processing-toolbox/anderson0503.pdf
Key is to have competent person sign off, and this should be personS, plural. It needs competent senior geologist AND metallurgist. One without the other increases probability of poor design, long lead time in commissioning, plant under-performancem high AISC..and project failure. What has impressed me about Horgan is his constant referral to Geology, and its important role (I am not a Geologist, but know a bit) in exploration, resource estimation and metalurgy. You do not hear this 3 bagger very often.
In McCarthy (2003) in a study of where things went wrong in feasibility studies showed that 27% of the issues arose in the metallurgical testwork, scale up or process plant equipment design. Of these issues the key areas where things went wrong included:
>Metallurgical domains within the orebody not understood
>Testing done on unrepresentative composites
>Failure to identify process contaminants
>Inability to handle ore types as per mining schedule
>Process water chemistry differs with lab
Plenty of very poor form by the industry! I am quite happy to build on solid foundations and what I hear and read is looking solid, even if it does take a little longer than armchair critcs and analysts think. Both will be the first to criticise when things go wrong, as they should but lets assume they are doing a good job, being fastidious. Investing in a $x00m plant and equipment is not to be rushed into.
A report from global consulting group McKinsey, "Optimizing mining feasibility studies: The $100 billion opportunity", has found that more than four out of five (80% !) mining projects came in OVER budget with over half recording an average budget overrun of 49% (!!!) – and this was just for those projects that reached production phase.
“Scope of work must be “is it feasible?” and not “make it feasible”.
There are plenty of clowns out there, wearing suits talking with arms waving..no feet on the ground so to speak. Happy in CEY
the Gnome
Yes Sotolo, but your strategy has lost you loads over the years when i've been following all your posts over the years when you have been posting your hefty losses
Hi Sotolo
You seem to have hit the nail on the head in your post. Look at the history of buy on the rumour , sell on the fact and as I have posted here before that is exactly the way major Institutional players scoop up lower price shares scared out of or scalping minor gains. The factual reality of a Company is paramount.
1) The gold is in the ground. No contest
2) Balance sheet strong No contest
3) AISC Reducing and substantially so after overcoming major expenditure No contest
4) Future prospects amazing (Both Sukari and Africa) No contest
5) No geopolitical adversity (Law 32) Thankyou Siko !!!!
6) Management focussed on long term sucess and not short term gain. No contest.
Yes short term dips and raises but the basics in my opinion are sound Happy to hold . Dividend so far far outweigh the percentage of cash held on an interest account.
Having been very very wrong in the past please do your own research and make your decisions on what you feel is correct
Regards
Bob
I am not a trader as it doesn’t suit me, I like to buy a share which gives me a hefty dividend as that is my income, and will keep going. I hate doing the CGT. Gold now just £2 off all time high
I don't understand all the "I'm in and I'm out for months" - history has proved an ace trading share-
go in when the datapoints and markers are there and out again- I would never put a timeframe
around any of it, plus mining is very high risk- a big whack can happen at any time- and so can a big rise.
Also it is gold price in sterling less aisc in sterling that leads to our profit in sterling and our sterling share price . The gold price in Sterling is just a third of a percent or £5 off it’s all time high today!
Indeed Tins you were most optimistic and along with the likes of Mizolgit a bit critical when I kept saying ounces are going down costs up, profits will be quitea way down and shares will fall to the 90’s, well it was even worse than I thought. However now that you turn gloomy I have turned optimistic, so much is now going in our favour even if Mr Horgan may be a bit lacklustre which may be no bad thing. Ounces are rising, costs are as under control as any miner with our solar etc, the legal case looks resolved and the get out of jail gold price is rising - $ profits now will be double 2 months ago when gold was $300 below today. In fact I was so pleased with the nothing in particular result and forward guidance that I waited a little for the fall and bought another £10k first thing today to get 114, as I thought the pull back after the results was just a sell on the news. Well expect if I have bought it will tumble tho perhaps by bad luck or chance I proved sadly right for a couple of years on the way down.
Hi Dasut,
Fair comments on this occasion, lets hope the openness continues!
Tibbs I don't agree Horgan answered the questions asked by Cowichan and these were all contentious questions and he also answered my question relating to the waste contract both as part of the presentation and in the Q&A in far more detail than I was expecting. OK sure there will be questions unanswered due to being censored. What were they we will never know?
The down side is that he retail investors Q & A session is subject to company censorship unlike the Q & A session for the corporate investors in which its possible to ask any questions admittedly though the analysts all too often ask lass pertinent questions and seem scripted in some respects!
Hi 3bear,
I sympathise with you optimism, I once felt like that a long time ago!
I have been trying to look forward for over two decades and that should have been long enough to grow any share, unfortunately what was delivered never compared with what was promised !
Its all too easy to get complacent!
Razor, thanks for posting the tweet. A very clear and positive statement from the Chief Executive. I listened to this on Friday on IG and added to my very considerable holding then. I felt on the Conference call on Thursday and the subsequent the session for individual investors in the afternoon, in which investors were not allowed to put direct questions live to the management were lacking in clarity and did not do justice to future prospects. Glad the management have now put out something that rectifies that impression.
C'mon Tibbs it's time to start looking forward rather than back? Fwiw I see centamin as a long term growth share but in the very near term it feels like groundhog day. We're going to see disappointing Q1 production numbers which will accentuate the high AISC just like last year. I've been taking a bit of profit and have sold down half my stake but that still leaves me with a significant lump in for the long haul and if/as the SP drops I intend to build back up again.
https://twitter.com/igcom/status/1616518675254616064?s=61&t=mvFmvh4dtZiIIja4SPfxsg
Hi MrGnome,
Must say that the market doesn't seem overly impressed with the latest report, but then that to be expected after the way the previous management including some who still sit on the board were happy systematically destroy market trust in anything the company whilst Sukari became ever more unworkable until it nearly imploded !
So with Centamin in the "Last chance saloon" unless it is to disappear down the lavatory it has had to face the realty that it really does ha e to produce ore gold than pie in the sky guidance media boasts!
Do I trust Centamin, well hard to say, but I trust the other gold miners far less !
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/news/Centamin-Maintained-at-Market-Perform-Following-Q4-Production-Release-Guidance-Price-Target-Lowere-42770399/
Cowichan I suggest you read the 4th Qtr report in particular the link to Doropo you will understand that it isn't just your throw away line "metallurgical fine tuning" albeit not a bad summary there is considerably more involved.
Why not cut and paste the Doropo PEA from 2012 seems to me there needs to be a starting document that can be dissected and developed to put meat on the bone which is what is going on to arrive at a document that is the PFS.
As for it taking longer in West Africa my estimate was 5 years from when geologists start talking positively to actually breaking ground with the equipment to open up the site readying to go mining. Anything earlier tended to come across problems.
I compared the number of years with colleagues around the world such as Australia, Canada, Indonesia and South Africa and a 5 year gestation period was a pretty good rule of thumb.
Yes Doropo has taken longer but I am happy that the work done since 2021 with the new team will I hope overcome "problems" in the future.