Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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In case you wondered why gold just got whacked- although wait to see how the liver and shakers interpret it …
Hi Dasut,
Yes exactly as you say!
Tibbs
Dasut, they capitalised $21M of the contract waste stripping & classified it as non-sustaining so I don’t think it will be hitting the AISC that heavily yet.
The fact that they are classifying the cost as non-sustaining capex is clear indication that this is not removal of built up waste from previous mining but really a pre-strip to improve future metrics. I continue to question the efficiency of this & the fact that current management have released no cost benefit analysis for such a significant & cash consuming program worries me - if they have not done such an analysis that would be negligent, if they have done such an analysis there is no reason not to release & let us know they are spending our money for good reason.
You seem to know a bit about getting gold out of dirt, do you think the lack of informational release about the projected costs & importantly anticipated benefits of the waste movement program is reasonable?
Tibbs strip ratio is something that directly impacts the bottom line and without spending time on actual numbers from memory the cost of waste removal just on contract with capital was about $20 million for first quarter and believe they moved just over 10 million tonnes so about $2 a tonne which is about right give or take 20/30 cents.
However this is 10 million tonnes and no ounces contribution so a direct cost. When compared to ounces of 105,000 produced in 1st qtr we are looking at $190 per ounce purely for the waste contract and then add the cost of waste removal by Centamin's fleet from memory another 20 million tonnes and it is clear high stripping ratio hurts.
That said when the waste contract which in my opinion is a necessary evil finishes we can enjoy an overnight reduction in AISC and hopefully a flexible mine with a more realistic strip ratio closer to 6:1 supported by a more productive underground contribution.
So if Kees Decker is of the opinion that hurt today will hopefully give us golden flip flops in the future than I am with him but at the same time I wish we didn't have to go through the pain caused by management taking their eye off the ball.
..... only sellers seem to be overwhelming buyers on level 2
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1649340041246789636?s=12
Hi Dasut,
You are of the same opinion as Kees Dekker "Mining Analyst" these improvement in results are as forecast by him last year. and Kees is of the opinion that with Martin Horgan's present strategy this will continue going forward.
As you observed the stripping ratio is still very high as above 9, the cash margin is very low and possibly negative when considering capex associated with the open pit!
As Kees previously pointed out in his reports his reports of 2015 & 2018 it is the underground mining is the real source for cash flow at the moment, although as we are painfully aware at the time this was denied by Andrew Pardey CEO at that time!
Sorry typo should read Solar!
The role potentially played by climate change, as reflected in global temperatures and the increasing cost of fossil fuels.
https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2022/climate-change-fossil-fuels-and-uk-food-prices
Food, fuel and energy bills are out of control and one of the reasons behind soaring prices is Fossilflation.
Watch now to find out how fossil fuels are making life miserable for all of us and why we need to reroute our whole system towards renewables to help bring prices down once and for all.
Sign the statement to demand Jeremy Hunt takes action now: https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/b...
https://www.youtube.com/user/PositiveMoneyUK
Thoroughly agree gnome West African government departments can't be rushed and hopefully Centamin no longer need a simple renewal of exploration licenses and are now applying for mining licenses which will also incorporate mining exploration.
Actually I am looking forward to seeing the results of the PFS in the coming months.
Thanks Prof. No matter what the figures are or what happens, somebody with the benefit of hindsight will say that it was expected because of XYZ . I suppose it is very hard to predict how much gold you will get out of the ground, even working at the same speed, as it depends wheter the gold is there or not! A few nice fat nuggets along the way would help :-)
I know some people dont like Martin Horgans "playing it safe" style, but that is also fine by me as I think he realises that he has to produce what has been predicted , or very close to it, each quarter, to maintain confidence. So this "steady as she goes" style is fine so long as the work is getting done.
Having said that, Im still waiting for him to unleash a cover drive or 2. From what I can gather he does seem to be clearing the way and opening things up to allow increased production in the not too distant future.
Fingers crossed for the Golden flip flops.
It doesn't work like this alas Paul- there are many factors including sentiment (which is less rationale)- 6th Jan2023 (3.5months ago, CEY was 125.5 and gold was 18,866)... But gold rose from 1,629 to 1,866 in only 2months(CEY rose 40% and other PMs flew too) as it looked like inflation had topped and dropped.
Since then (CEY has dropped about 18%), despite gold increasing from 1,866 to where we are now (so another ~120), but it took almost twice as long as previous rise with about half the increase and did drop quite a bit before rising again in this timeframe. during this time, the feeling is that inflation drop has/is stalling... hawkish FED etc.
My point is, absolute values don't matter, if they did (and RNS were good), then CEY would be above 125.5, and not down about 18%.
Long term remains strong though- let's hope inflation drops quick, which it should do soon, then CEY will reflect this (without any poor RNS on company stuff)
Hi Goldgnome,
I thought it was bed time down under!
I would love to see those figures. Put the $2200 together with a slight over performance on the AISC range that I mention in my previous post and we would be getting $1000 an oz over costs. Now wouldn't that be nice.
Yours dreaming,
Prof
Hi Paul,
I am afraid that I have limited figures to hand. The guidance for AISC for this FY is $1250-1400. Q1 AISC was $1348 for a production of 105,875oz so already well below the top end of the guidance range. All else being equal AISC will fall as oz produced increases as the non marginal costs of production are spread over a larger volume of ozs. That should therefore drive AISC down over the rest of the year. All else however is not equal and I expect a number of the other initiatives that CEY has underway to drive down AISC to have some effect this year (you mention the grid connection although of little/ limited impact this FY I suspect) and also some of the one off costs as they seek to get the mine back in shape to cease or reduce (you mention waste removal which we should see the 'extraordinary' element slip away although some is business as usual. As such I would be disappointed to see AISC above the mid-point of the range and would hope to see it somewhere between the bottom end of $1,250 and the midpoint of $1,325.
A large part of this guesstimate and perhaps too much is hope. I do suspect that CEY have given a range that they are comfortable being able to deliver even with bad inflation and a few curve balls as Horgan does seem to like to play it safe (fine by me!). If that inflation is not as bad as last year and there are no serious curve balls then that also gives me an expectation that we could come in within the figures I mention above of $1250-$1325.
Ultimately however we will only know in retrospect.
Best wishes,
Prof
Prof
I would not discount gold going to $2100 or $2200
The belief in curency is a belief in government, and that belief has all but disappeared.
good luck to us all
The gnome
Prof---as you seem to have the figures to hand, assuming for now that gold hovers around $2,000, how will the end of the waste clearance affect the AISC and profits? I think the waste removal is costing rather a lot at the moment? A $50 or £100 dollar reduction in AISC is as good as the same increase in the POG isnt it?
Also, moving forward, (just at a guess) how much will connecting to the grid cut costs?
Thanks
Hi Goldgnome,
Thanks for sharing. Well if that happened CEY would be clearing $800-900 over AISC. Even our share price would have to react to that!
Best wishes,
Prof
It be a decent endorsement / confirmation of confidence in the recent results if James Rutherford was to make another share purchase.
European stock exchanges traded mostly muted in the premarket hours on Friday, with investors locking their attention on PMI reports slated for release after the opening bell, which are expected to indicate the current state of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors across the Eurozone, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
Before the opening bell, Britain's Office for National Statistics will post the latest update on the country's retail sales. Meanwhile, German software company, SAP posted its first-quarter financial results.
London's FTSE 100, the CAC 40, and the Euro Stoxx 50 were all flat at 6:53 am CET. Frankfurt's DAX was down 0.10%. The euro lost 0.09% versus the dollar, to sell at $1.09604 at 7:05 am CET. The British pound fell 0.09% against the greenback, trading at $1.24318.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend!
Underground mine backfilling is a form of ground improvement that has to be carried out in the mine sites. The backfilling provides ground support and regional stability, thus facilitating ore removal from nearby regions. The large underground voids created by the ore removal are backfilled with the waste tailings in the form of paste fills, hydraulic fills, and others. The tailings are placed in the form of slurry that undergoes self-weight consolidation. A small dosage of binder is added to paste fill and cemented hydraulic fill to enhance strength. Considering the high cement cost, mines are using fly ash and **** to partially replace cement with blended cements. This paper gives a practical overview of underground mine backfilling in Australia using paste fills and hydraulic fills. The mining methods and different types of backfills are briefly discussed, with major focus on paste fills and hydraulic fills.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40891-015-0020-8
Grinding Balls and Other Grinding Media: Key consumables
Cutting consumable costs is important for all mining operations, but not at the expense of quality. Grinding media represents low hanging fruit for most miners. Most often, the grinding media in question are grinding balls. In some mid-cap mines, grinding media makes up ~10% of total mining operational expenses (OPEX) and significant savings can be achieved.
Selecting the best-quality grinding media balls is considered a key step towards reducing mining costs. This post discusses grinding balls and quality control procedures that can be employed in order to select the best grinding balls for particular applications.
https://kemcore.com/blogs/news/grinding-balls-and-other-grinding-media-key-consumables
Grinding Balls and Other Grinding Media: Key consumables
Cutting consumable costs is important for all mining operations, but not at the expense of quality. Grinding media represents low hanging fruit for most miners. Most often, the grinding media in question are grinding balls. In some mid-cap mines, grinding media makes up ~10% of total mining operational expenses (OPEX) and significant savings can be achieved.
Selecting the best-quality grinding media balls is considered a key step towards reducing mining costs. This post discusses grinding balls and quality control procedures that can be employed in order to select the best grinding balls for particular applications.
https://kemcore.com/blogs/news/grinding-balls-and-other-grinding-media-key-consumables
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