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Somnamma,
I appreciate that traders point of view is very different to that of an investor, traders and indeed computor driven logarithms care not a jot about whether those making claims on behalf of the company are being truthful, or if they have any integrity because their prime objective is to maximise their quick profit or return out of fluctuations or spikes in the share price of a particular company that is a result of more often than not claims of future guidance without any sound evidence to substantiate them and once the farce is realised the same traders likely then take short positions in order to makefile from the company share price going into free-fall.
To state that looking back is just history and no longer relevant is preferable for a trader because they have no interest on the long prospects of the company, just a quick profit from a spike in share price which likely turns out to be unjustified and based on some unsubstantiated claim from a company director whose priority is to gloss over the flaws in the company strategy draw their bonuses and fill their boots with swag then likely once the truth evident move on to another company where they will repeat scam and screw the next lot of what they regard as gullible investors!
This what is wrong with the whole market system, it exists on the basis of lies and innuendo, rather then integrity and sustainable sound and reliable long term performance.
As the market system to a large extent is based around charts and data of historical performance so then surely any investor should base their decisions to a large extent understanding the historical fundamentals and sustainable performance potential of a company, rather then short term data based on unsubstantiated claims that are more akin to wishful thinking.
An investor should be able to buy shares in a company put the certificates in drawer and forget about them for the long term reasonably confident that they will appreciate, unlike traders whose only interest is a quick profit over the shortest possible period.
Ok Steve you have said it (expressed your opinion) so why bang on about it ?
I really appreciate and value your posts on trading and data, in fact look forward to them.
But how about having respect for other posters views and opinions, and if you don't have anything of factual or logical value to add just ignore the post and move on. Or debate the post from a factual / logical aspect.
No need to trash the topic without explanation or justification or belittle the poster for the topic of thier post.
The problem is on your approach Mr T- to make money you have to predict.
Everything you wrote is obvious and doesn’t help predict anything or timeline.
Sorry to be blunt, but I say it as see it.
If anyone is wondering what the future share price may be then they need to appropriate the reasons why it is where it is today are factors such the cost of the very generous ongoing profit share agreement and that the contribution from the underground is crucial to supplement the unreliable and mediocre open pit grades.
Any hope of some decent rise rise in share price from increased guidance and lower AISC is directly related to the efficiency of the underground operation.
As yet their is little to substantiate the hopes/claims for the Doropo site which might turn out to be reasonable of it could be an expensive failure, as yet on what is known will have little positive effect on the future share price.
It is a great mistake o assume that there is going to be any substantial increase in share price until some proof of ongoing lower AISC and reliable and improved guidance is delivered,
Steve I have to agree history can't be changed and pretty much all of the culprits have gone and the new team are coming to an end of their announced 4 year reorganisation to get the mine back on track.
Yes it has been a painful 4 years but unfortunately there are many necessary evils that had to be suffered.
Tibbs the underground has always been crucial and that was known from day one and is why the mine design and plans are as they are. They actually got to the development stages of the underground earlier than I envisaged because early discussions were around sinking access into the lower reaches far later in proceedings.
Yes open pit will always be lower grades that is the geology but without the open pit the funds and considerable funds have been obtained from the open pit, the underground wouldn't have been possible without borrowing, and standing alone the ounces wouldn't have made the mine viable.
I think everyone agrees that Pardey was over promoted and wrong decisions came home to roost. Yes Horgan has spent a fortune but I have to begrudgingly admit some credit has to be given to the old guard because funds were available for the new team to spend.
The proof of whether Horgan and his team's decisions are the correct decisions will soon be known as I have said we are coming to the end of the 4 year cycle. No doubt the ship is steadier and we have seen some consistency and flexibility but proof of turning the ship around is hopefully to be seen by the year end, but starting with first quarter numbers.
Mr T,
Please focus on views on what the SP will be in the future and cease endless historical information that is all available should anyone want to find it.
The past is the past.
The key is the short, med and long term SP, and drivers that impact this.
The 2012 Centamin annual report the management were well aware of the significance of the underground workings and the need to develop them so that the higher underground grades could be used to compensate for the inerrant low grade problems of the open pit
See Centamin at a glance , overview – What Sets Us Apart para 1.
"In particular, the underground mine and regional
prospects offer significant potential to define further
resources."
See also 4. * An experienced team
* (Bunch of shyster's!)
Centamin’s management team and Board of Directors have considerable expertise in the gold mining industry. **
**(So they were fully aware then of the dangers of long term high grading?)
This ranges from the early stage identification of deposits,project financing, construction and development, to the operating of large mines.
Some of the leadership team has been based at Sukari for almost a decade, taking it from an early stage exploration project to the operating gold mine it is today. ***
***(Including an Elraghy brother who used to be a Cairo copper with a police academy certificate in post as Sukari general manager?)
Yet despite this claimed expertise within this BOD and management instead of acting responsibly by developing the underground operation they disregarded sound mining practice and went for a what they knew was a very high risk strategy of high grading the open pit for over half decade glossing over the truth for short term gain withoutv thought for long term consequences !
On the link below go to the top line then select Archive , then go to page numbers at the bottom scroll back to page 06 2012 annual repott
https://www.centamin.com/investors/results-reports/?year=archive
I appreciate that some may find it boring to read through these retrospective reports , but that said much of the detail makes it obvious all the things that Martin Horgan recognised needed doing on his arrival needed doing half a decade before, had they been then things would be very different now!
Strange isn't it how Trump claims that everything American is so superior, yet he choose to ignore that not the USA internal airline system near falling to bits but that Boeing aircraft have also been discarding parts of their fuselage in flight over many years!
As part of my research re the timing of Josef's share disposals I asked Kees Dekker for hie thoughts and to be frank I feel that his opinion is likely one of the most valid and concerns the long term effects upping of the profit share to 50% and the parasitical effect of this which an awful lot of people myself included never seemed to fully appreciate !
07/2018
Hello T,
I suspect that it will be very difficult to prove insider trading by Mr El Raghy. As you point out management until recently did not appear to see problems coming. So how did Mr El Raghy see that?
I think proving otherwise will be nigh impossible!
What he must have seen coming is sharing the net free cash flow 50/5o, but this any shareholder should have seen coming as it was never a secret.
kind regards,
Kees
Hi Somnamma,
I did write to the company on several occasions re the timing of Josef's share sales, even tried via the company secretary to gets questions raised at the AGM, but this didn't happen?
I have a file of the various explanations from the company, in many respects they all seemed plausible although that said any opinion on the rationale behind theses sales does depend whether you are a retail investor or a member of the BOD !
If you recall Marmot, he offered some thoughts about 5 million share disposal LSE 07/2018
There is nothing significant in a regulatory sense about his shareholding at 4.67% today vs. 6% before the sales.
But leaving aside speculation about personal financial decisions there are several points about his stake which may be significant.
Firstly, although CEY has 1.15bn shares in issue almost half, 575m shares are held by 8 Co's and one individual. The May presentation on the CEY website reports that there were 9 large shareholders with holdings of 2.7% or more, owning 50.8% of the shares in issue. Even after his recent sale Josef El Raghy still ranks 3rd largest shareholder with 4.67% behind fund managers Blackrock 12.9% and Van Eck with 11.9%.
After the court case is resolved I think it reasonable to expect that some of these institutional shareholders will increase their stakes and others will take new holdings.
As the price rises and more holders become strong hands it will get more difficult to build stake of 2%-4% without bidding up the price. I expect Josef's stake to drop down from 3rd largest in the future as other institutions take 5% or larger stakes.
Perhaps these share sales were requested by some institutional buyers keen to get a slice before the court case was resolved.
Over the last few weeks Josef's 17.6m share sales have released 1.53% of the issued share capital back into the free float market.
I think one point worth noting is that all the sales came from Nordana Pty fund which Josef controls.
He has kept all of his and family trust shares.
So it is conceivable that Nordana was set up as a vehicle designed specifically to fund another opportunity? Perhaps if one comes up in Egypt?
Marmot
Well it's busted through that this morning to 108.
Start of last week I noticed the SP weaker in the mornings then picking up as US markets opened. Be interesting to see what happens today
Same with Edoardo Hochschild selling them at 200 and then fell three fold, should keep a lynx eye on directors, and when they buy
Mr T perhaps worth an add to your history post would be the massive share sell off (approx 52,000,000 shares) by Josef El-Raghy in 2016 / 2017. In hindsight a very big red flag.
13-Jun-17 Sell 173.00 5,000,000
12-Jun-17 Sell 177.00 5,350,000
27-Feb-17 Sell 173.40 5,000,000
23-Feb-17 Sell 179.00 4,040,000
21-Feb-17 Sell 175.70 5,000,000
20-Feb-17 Sell 178.20 5,000,000
09-Feb-17 Sell 173.00 5,000,000
10-Jun-16 Sell 111.00 5,000,000
31-May-16 Sell 98.00 12,595,714
Gold currently $2148.92
Major stock exchanges in Europe traded mostly higher in the premarket on Monday with investors anticipating the final version of the report on the euro area consumer prices. Another big event that will mark this week is the United States Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, which will be revealed on March 20.
The DAX was flat at 8:00 am CET. Simultaneously, the Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.41%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.21%, and the CAC 40 edged up 0.06%.
Both the euro and the pound traded flat against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, going for 1.08881 and 1.27333, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Happy Monday y’al
An excellent post MrT, thanks for sharing the history. As a long trime shareholder it brought back some happy and not so happy memories
Hi Paul,
although I didn't put it in the last post along with some other shareholders in 2014 I attended the general meeting in Jersey in 2014 along , at that meeting Josef made several claims that turned out to be a complete crock!
Kees is a very experienced mining analyst and for a while he sent out analysis that looked beneath the surface of various miners reports which was free of charge retail investors , through that forum several friends of mine were able to avoid getting reeled in to several investments that were base on pie on the sky publicity that turned out to be complete money pits although some of the members did very well by following some of Kees's tips.
Due to the amount consultancy work Kees could no longer spare the time to continue with his monthly new sheet although he still does some analysis for https://www.cruxinvestor.com/
As pointed out by Kees in 2015,2018 Sukari and to the present time the Sukari underground operation that is so crucial to to viability of the operation.
That is a very good post Mr T. I suggest you save it and re post it on a fairly regular basis. That would be much less confusing than reposting other things that give the impression (Unless you read it very carefully) that something is going on now. By that I mean the whole Kees Decker thing and other info from up to 9 years ago.
It does rather look like the last lot------Josef, Pardey, the e police chief filled their saddle bags at our expense-------And that some of the dividends paid at that time were to boost the share price, so they could sell and ride off into the sunset.
Anyhow, like I say keep this post and put it up maybe once a month.
Lets hope for some good news this week and also in April. Good news and the POG staying at this level, should perk things up a bit.
Thank you 3 bear for your thoughts,
In the past I posted information from conversations with a well informed and well meaning acquaintance I whom I saw on the train on a regular basis, much of the information was very useful in dispelling misunderstanding and myths regarding the dispute regarding accusations over original Sukari concession agreement and on the accuracy of the press releases by the previous Sukari general manager in the Eygptian media.
Unfortunately though some of the information given to me by my acquaintance in good faith on their part then proved to be unreliable which was disappointing to say the least for all concerned and some members on here then criticised me for posting it and accused me of being too positive about the company.
In 2016 after concerns had been raised in the mining media regarding the seemingly inherent poor quality grade problems in the open pit I called Andrew Pardey and expressed my concerns as a shareholder, Andrew Pardey assured me that the analysts media article was based on inaccurate data and that the vain of low grades were only temporary and they would soon be through into much higher grades, he also assured that high grading was carried out in most mines on a temporary basis and all was well managed in the Sukari operation, sadly subsequent events prove this was a complete "Crock" the CEO had lied to me.
In 2018 much the same problems occurred only it was even worse this time because the poor open pit grades couldn't be supplemented by the higher underground grade because Andrew Pardey failed to oversee Bariminco the underground contactor properly who had allowed the sole LHDR to self destruct without any contingency plan or spare parts available , this was supposedly to save costs, although the result was an RNS warning of reduced guidance!
After this I again spoke with Andrew Pardey who assured me that lessons had been learnt, that these unexpected occurrences happen, but that lessons had been learnt and new methods and an additional LHDR had been ordered to mitigate any future interruptions to guidance!
Then what happens in 2020, I think you know that!
I'm afraid until i have some proof the verdict is still out on the new management and as to any ftse companies CEO's or BOD most of them are only in it to fill their saddle bags with swag and then ride off elsewhere leaving the shareholders to pay the bill, I trust them all as much as I would trust a rattle snake at a lucky dip!
Obviously everyone must make their own decisions based on their own research , but just be wary of the accuracy of the information that is made available!
Tibbs
Respectfully to all posters, when cutting and pasting please kindly quote the source or better still if possible post a link. This then clearly distinguishes between words of the poster and those he or she is sharing. This approach will eliminate confusion.
United Airlines Inc.'s Boeing 737 carrier which took off from San Francisco on Friday is reported to have made an emergency landing in Oregon after losing its panel in midair, local media said.
The forced landing at Medford Airport in Oregon did not result in injuries.
Multiple airline companies have encountered incidents involving Boeing aircraft, with the most recent incident resulting in injuries to at least 50 passengers on a LATAM Airlines flight from Sydney to Auckland due to an abrupt drop in altitude.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AB
the batsman's holding, the bowler's willie.
must admit i regret a couple of my own recent posts on here for having a pop at people. it's not good. we're supposed to be sharing views on cey to the upside or down to see what others invested or interested in this company think about them. instead we seem to be sniping at one another more and more. i am irritated by cowichan's constant negativity, some of it is questionable, some has real merit. he definitely isn't tibbs. i don't mind mizol/bond being the same person. i may be accused of wearing rose tinted glasses but i believe the current management is as honest as any management of a billion dollar mining company can fairly be expected to be. i will continue trading and holding this stock for the long term. the company is well run in my view, egypt on the other hand...that is a worry.
anyway, from now on, i'm going to try harder not to **** people off or get offensive just because i disagree with their position. gla
I certaily did not mention what you are holding, ;-) or the size of it !!
A gold and silver supply shortage may coincide with an economic downturn and how investors can prepare for coming challenges by switching to sound money.
https://tinyurl.com/d5f6pacc
A trusted acquaintance forwarded the piece below to me,I appreciate it's cut and paste but I didn't see the point of rewriting it and its is some news about Centamin so it should at least keep some of the forum members at least half happy!
Egypt, Regional Exploration
Upon completing successful screening programs, the Fatiri and Atalla licenses were relinquished after indications of large mineralized systems were not observed.
Exploration programs are progressing on the Hamash-Sukari, where initial observations from the first phase exploration program have identified
features that are indicative of elevated prospective, including fertile intrusive s and a major, multikilometer, structural corridor associated with extensive alteration along extensional flexures.
An airborne geophysical survey is planned early in 2024 to support the generation of the first set of prioritized targets or drill testing.
https://tinyurl.com/ycx9bseu
Barrick has decided to dispose of quite a lot of Egyptian real estate all at once - and that without the modern geotechnical techniques to 'hunt for elephants' as Bristow likes to say - but noticeably staying with the concessions nearest Sukari which possibly indicates an interest in a future consolidation with Centamin?