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Excellent response in4cedros............. LK and team have everything in hand :)
LexLucre - don't know why you regard it as a shame - you're not invested and you don't follow this company as closely as me. If you did you'd see the bigger picture that LK made a number of claims regarding the development of the company to shareholders, some through the media others direct to influential shareholders like Schroders and BigMJ - rowing back on assurances would affect his future credibility here at CERP or anywhere else he might go.
Drilling Saffron is the next stage in development and, almost certainly, whatever the result LK will be indicating how he intends taking CERP forward on a range of areas which he hasn't been able to finance hitherto including a compartment drill MWO on South Erin, possible MWO drills on Innis Trinity, Suriname MWO plus other elements of discretionary spending.
You've come on here to parrot Dross who selects facts and then formulates his own conclusion which he expects to achieve by Goebbels style saturation posting whereas other readers here make up their own minds based on published information and the media together with common sense and experience - plenty of people have been concerned about the dwindling cash pile here not just Dross - you chose to believe Dross and missed out on buying in at a much lower price - that's your issue but there's no shame from LK - he's done what he said he'd do - I'm happy to acknowledge things could have gone much better but we're still here with lots of opportunities to pursue and credibility intact which maximises LK's options for the future.
On a positive note you are a tad more credible than Irene who's position is all over the place !
"Now these are minor slips - but those hanging on the the 500m MC in 3/5 years need to factor in these delays and failures into the big goal."
You give quite a range there In4SWP........... 2 years in fact............. :)
All the best (looks like enough for any minor slips that might happen :()
"Now these are minor slips - but those hanging on the the 500m MC in 3/5 years need to factor in these delays and failures into the big goal."
I mentioned that a while ago, but certain sandwich board wearers chased after me with Koot bell....
If the oil is there or isnt... what does it matter if its discovered in September or October.
It only matters to those who have over-invested and need money urgently.
Ok. Thanks...
Razorman - can I update you on the list to 6.3m
Patiently holding (now 6.3m) but it doesn’t take the de rampers to see drilling in September was another missed target. It’s easy to sit back and criticise, but these missed targets feed nicely into those with agendas. Leo - I’m hoping you will keep to your word and buy in the open market in the near future. Credibility is important for management teams. Nowhere more so that AIM where investors take huge leaps in faith.
very happy with Suriname deal: new acreage, new potential oil production, low cost and NO PLACING which usually happens to finance an M&A.
Only fools think an M&A would shoot up the SP instantly. Usually the sp of the company acquiring tanks, and sp of the company being bought rises.
LexLucre - new country entry a damp squib ? - says who - only mad/ malevolent derampers who've talked themselves out of buying this at a much lower price - suck on those sour grapes!
I think Suriname is a great opportunity and look forward to hearing more about it - nil upfront cost PSC on a known production area - what's not to like - educate me !
Magoo, I like your enthusiasm but expressing it so excessively can detract from the cause you peddle. The derampers don’t display modesty or humility. Falling into the same ways, creates nothing but more noise.
Hi neon
Thanks for your reply, now you mentioned it I forgot Angs drilled it.
Just a few points we differ on is the Swp is not light oil, an API 30+ Is light and Bonasse and Icacos are around 25, Suriname is 16-20 on the Tambareajo field.
Venezuela is a notorious heavy oil producer
Light oil migrates to the surface such as at Goudron but the theory is there must be heavier oil at deeper levels there. These levels are shallower at Bonasse making it cheaper to drill.
The sand layers holding the oil at Saffron are emerging at surface so most of the light oil has probably dissipated .
The infrastructure is there, how adequate it will be I don't know but with £26m capex being spent on the Saffron field infrastructure in the next 2 years it must require new investment.
ATB:))
Bamps21
Angs is the company that drilled Horsehill, the crown jewel of UKOG. But because of the tight oil nature of the fractured reservoir, UKOG didn’t have any success at Bradford Bridge. ANGS failed with its Lidsey and kimmeridge layer at Brockham.
SWP is at the centre of East Venezuelan Basin and they are light moveable oil so success rate will be higher than that of UKOG ANGS combined. Till today UKOG probably raised close to or over £15M from the market if I’m not wrong and they will surely need more in the future. Cerp has its existing bonasse infrastructure ready to support saffron meaning the oil produced can be connected to its existing infrastructure and sell the oil immediately.
GL bud
Hi grq
Less of the young :((
Bamps,
I can raise your 8 year investment and say I've been here for 13 years!
To me, you're just a young, whipper snapper...
Hi neon
The only thing about Cerp and Ukog are they are drilling at the same time.
I know nothing of Angs
Ukog have a light oil of 40-41 api and is coming out at the on it's own pressure at the moment while testing , it's coming out clean and no water in a naturally fractured rock
The oil at Saffron is 25-30 Api heavy oil, in a sand layer therefore they are 2 different situations with differing permeabilities.
If you look at the capex chart on the presentation, there is a small cost for tanks and pipelines rising next year to approx £6m and the next year to £15-20m for pipeline, tanks and infrastructure.
This suggests to me they are expecting a lot of oil and need more infrastructure to cope
I have every confidence in LK to succeed at Saffron. I would be well pleased if the reserves hit the P10 target of 153m
ATB:))
Hi neon
What have I said that is wrong, I haven't mentioned about production or comparing it to others
To me investors are holding back waiting for assurities of being materially commercial before piling in
If it is very commercial all bodes well for the rest of the SWP and the sp will rise
Yes I'm excited by the drilling but from past experience of Trinidad drills I'm being realistic
Of course there's oil down there, probably 3-5 layers of it, I hope it comes gushing out and probably will to start before the serious production of pumps and steaming takes over.
After being here for over 8 years waiting for this moment another 3 weeks is not long to wait
ATB:))
I'm hoping you are the one that is right, neon.
Bamps21, this is where you are getting it all wrong because you are comparing CERP with the likes of UKOG or ANGS. Both UKOG and ANGS are dealing with tight oil, trying to produce from unconventional oil fields conventionally, CERP isn't. CERP has already got the infrastructure setup which neither UKOG nor ANGS have, I'm talking about field development and infrastructure costs. LK has already said it cost below $10/barrel for CERP with get the oil out and together with the renegotiated SWP deal, the total cost is now half of what used to. And finally, neither UKOG or ANGS have got proper production licence. They are just doing long term production testing so they still have a long way to go. CERP has got PPL (private production licence) and can easily connect and sell the oil if it flows. The oil is down there, no question about it. It's just how you can get the out to maximise your production. It took CERP over 2.5 years to sort out all the issues and come to this point so stating it won't effect the SP, I think you are still underestimating CERP mate.
Spudding a well is not normally what gets the sp moving unless it takes investors by surprise, many of whom will already be invested.
What will improve the share price are unknown surprises like finding oil in the incised sands at 500', the Upper and Middle Cruses 1200-2000' and then the main target the Lower Cruse if it meets the top of the target range.
The plans are to only test the 3 layers though.
It's drilling through sands/sandstone so I would be surprised if it took 3 weeks but depends if they stop at each layer to test or go straight to the target depth of 4000' and case it before plugging and testing.
I would expect good flow rates to increase the sp and even more so proving of the reserves, but there is always the chance of non commercial flows, so until they announce the well is commercial the sp will probably stay where it is.
To me there's no reason why it shouldn't be commercial as Saffron is very close to other producing wells.
Yes you got it right Pete
Page 6: https://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/20190924_SWP-Investor-presentation-compressed.pdf
If the saffron drill depth is 4,000/4,500 feet and the drill time is about 3 weeks, that should mean we will achieve about 200 feet per day.
Is the upper cruse about 1,000 feet down? If so. we might get some news after 5 days of drilling
Is my thinking correct?
Could yet be an afternoon RNS
Cheeky little pre spud rise coming this afternoon perhaps ;)
Hi Peter
you have got that one right