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DM, I agree. North of 3.8p this was a hold in my head but at 3.5p there is money to be made. Yes we are suffering contagion from yet more geopolitical fall out but we've been here before and it's all part of being invested in a business operating in a part of the world that 2022 has not been kind to. According to Clive we are due 141 news in the not too distant and this slippery pig is, if nothing else, a survivor.
Fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” applies here. Nothing wrong with being fearful and nothing wrong with being greedy, it’s the stock market ffs. Pack in the patronising crap or I’ll be around with the Pom Poms !!
Back to Casper. Our oil is being sold and not through the CPC. The CPC has been closed down many times for various reasons but allegedly oil is flowing. CPC isn’t a Russian venture as we all know with many Western partners involved. Hurts Kaz and Europe but imho, gets resolved as it has done many times through its history and some will sell and others will buy, that’s what happens on the stock market :)
KK you say: “. Somebody decided to offload 500k at 3.475? panic sell and being picked up by the greedy. “ Oh dear off you go again. How do you know it’s a panic sell? Maybe it’s a timely sell, maybe he/she needs the money! ‘Picked up by the greedy’ Why ‘greedy’ We all want to buy at what we perceive to be the best price. Oh dear …
Deffinatly not the time to start flow testing the two deep wells that I think are ready to go ... no, now is the time for a company to buy shares in itself ... assuming of course it has the balance sheet position and the cash to do so .... oooh hush my mouth
Maybe time for Kaz to create it's own oil pipeline infrastructure instead of accessing Russian pipes. Putin is forcing Europe to wean itself off Russian blends so maybe time for US/Europe to help support western companies like Chevron, Exxon, BG, Mobil, BP etc to ensure that they can export without dependence on Russia. I'm sure these talks will be happening as Kaz will be in the same boat as Europe. Russia is forcing change and Kaz and it's partners will be moving oil by other means and maybe a huge change is needed regardless of short term pain.
Can you buy one for me too, but 2 get 1 free ? We are certainly going on a rollercoaster ride and i never saw us going back to the 3p range ! If they lock the CPC pipeline down, Putin is escalating matters and will force Kaz to make other plans and eventually new infrastructure if needed as can't be held ransom but he's doing it to all of Europe. Bog boys like Chevron with deep pockets will be helping with infrastructure and Kaz certainly don't want to be going back to Soviet control. Putin has completely ****ed it up for all Russians. They're now a Pariah state with few allies and i don't know how they ever come back from it even if Putin gets the chop ?
Crude also dipped below $100 on recession fears. CPC pipeline only supplies 1% of global oil and obviously affecting supply but obviously recessionary fears are creeping in to demand calcs.
There is more than one way of transporting oil, the pipeline being one. Khazak authorities will be keen to ensure that Putin has very little effect on oil revenues. Even if there is a delay, the oil hasn't been lost , local traders might find that they have an opportunity to stock up and CASP might have to a few deals to keep production going.
Somm - All i know is what Clive told us, our oil does not use te CPC pipeline, now i dare say maintenance is done on the pipeline that we do use from time to time, how often and how long this occurs i don't know.
Somm - basically the CPC pipeline comes out in the Black sea, our oil uses another pipeline and comes out on the Baltic sea. Once Clive can be bothered to put up the presentation on the website there was a dedicated slide that showed our route to market.
Yep, the Russians control the pipelines but Caspian do not use the CPC to the Black see marine terminal Novorossiysk-2 on the Black Sea. If they stop oil flows, they damage themselves too and escalate the war beyond Ukraine, we'd all have to worry then !!
The Russian’s control the flow of oil through their part of the oil pipeline and control the port. No matter how you interpret it Russia controls the flow of oil and can stop the flow of oil.
‘’CPC said it had submitted an appeal to the court in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk requesting that the enforcement of ruling be suspended to avoid a stoppage that could lead to irrevocable consequences for the pipeline equipment.’’
‘’The United States has imposed sanctions on Russian oil but has said flows from Kazakhstan through Russia should run uninterrupted. The European Union, meanwhile, has said it wants to wean itself off reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027.’’
Putin won't stop production for long as that really does escalate tensions. CPC owned 49% by Russian interests through Transneft, Rosneft, Lukoil and the remaining share through Chevron, Mobil, BG, CPC CO and KMG. Bigger boys will have to look at other routes and that could put pressure on infrastructure, yes but i can't see this ever stopping. Link below states that oil still flowing.
As I've said many times the share price being low is due to the risk of the CPC being cut off by Russian politics, which is now the case as the Russian courts have ruled a 30 day closure for 'maintenance' due to an oil spill some time ago.
This ruling imo is due to the Kaz President embarrassing Putin live on TV re not supporting the Ukrainian invasion.
The pipeline is still flowing but for how long?
Carver said it wouldn't happen?
The dividend must not go ahead and all spare cash must go towards funding an alternative pipeline route/ additional trucking costs - too many people of gotten used to the idea of getting a quarterly dividend.
Emit the CPC risk and CASP share price will fly - how long will it take for Putin to be replaced/ war to stop - before the risk is reduced to pre-war times?
It's going to a month(s) to re-route CASP oil to mini refineries/ alternative pipeline by truck and therefore see the share price taking a further downward hit. Will a dividend/ increase in oil flow/ Reserves prop up the share price during a pipeline closure?
Only good news is it will be another buying opportunity.