The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Seems to me our holy man is looking for some form of divine intervention though it strikes me he has not been reading or understanding the scriptures correctly if he continues to preach going Private from his Pulpit. Not quite sure which Gospel of Thinking he comes from or maybe just had a little too much communion wine!!! Meanwhile, I am sure there are many disciples awaiting the resurrecting of the David and Goliath story.
I tnink that the appointment of a new CFO has ended any thoughts of a take over bid ,as why would anyone take a new job in a company that is likely to be taken over. Our only hope, as we see it, is for the company to be taken private. Howeverwe are not sure at what price that will be for our long suffering shareholders.
every blessing
Rev Shep
The ‘Significant Shareholder’ section of the N Brown website has been updated as of Friday 10th Feb.:
Lord David Alliance of Manchester CBE, Lady Homa Alliance and Joshua Alliance - 50.07%
Frasers Group plc - 17.88%
Nigel Alliance OBE - 6.92%
Joshua Senior - 3.35%
Hargreaves Lansdown plc - 3.34%
I noticed in the Takeover Code, under Rule 9, it states that if a person, or party, acquires 50% or more of a company that holds control over another company, then that person is deemed to have acquired control over both companies.
Interestingly, one of N Brown’s few active subsidiaries is JDW Finance…is this perhaps what the family have been trying to keep from Frasers’ reach..?
Whatever the aim, it seems to imply that David, Homa & Joshua Jr are in fact acting with a joint interest.
I sold last week at 41.75 tbh. Been well under water for 12 months. The Alliance and Fraser buys allowed me to sell at a small profit. Big buyers could resume any time but they know what they are doing and will no doubt wait for the inevitable retrace to finish.
Weak hands which piggybacked on the recent Alliance/Frasers buys, now bailing in the absence of further buys I imagine.
I do not have foresight only hindsight it was correct to slice at 42p on Monday .
9% lower by the Friday .
All hypotheses are worth considering, given the clouds of obscurity which envelop the motivation and circumstances of the major shareholders. On the face of it, the settlement with Allianz was not particularly favorable to BWNG, and the agreement was clinched earlier than necessary, implying a desire to clear the decks, for whatever reason. But who knows… Another assumption is that, blood being thicker than water, all the Alliances are acting – or will continue to act - in concert and in coordination with each other, which may not necessarily be the case. Different family members may not see eye to eye on the future of the company, may have their own interests and priorities, and may view the value of the IHT dimension differently.
Could be that way around - entirely possible.
The announcement of the settlement of the legal dispute on 9th January has provided a degree of certainty for all investors. However, the share price was circa 27p at the end of that day and it actually dropped a bit over the following few days, so the Alliances could have bought significantly cheaper if they'd got a wiggle on... so not sure the settlement was a primary factor.
But who knows?
My hypothesis is it’s the other way round, alliance family buying (particularly the initial tranches they purchased from Schroders) forced frasers into action to take a large stake, just enough to prevent any easy takeover hence no buys since. Frasers want to wait in the wings until the old alliances die when then, and only then, would they have a realistic chance of a takeover imo (primarily based on IHT benefits).
As to why the alliances started buying recently clearly a large part of it started with the friendly buys from Schroders who wanted to offload but I do wonder if perhaps they were scared the Allianz claim may have ended up being many multiples higher, it doesn’t seem a coincidence to me that they have only just started ramping up the buying after that was settled.
Definitely they were... thanks Ashley for shaking them into action!
He has £300mil plus spare from the sale of NC United FC. Pointless leaving it in the bank.
I do wonder if The Alliance family were concerned Fraser group was hoovering up stock at a 50-60% discount to NAV.
And I see Ashley plans to buy a couple of shopping centres to boot - he's certainly taking a scattergun approach to his retail investments...
Whatever happens next, I think we have to thank Ashley for finally stirring the Alliances into action - they're certainly supporting the share price with their purchases now! If they'd dipped into their expansive pockets earlier, they'd have been able to buy all these shares a good deal cheaper.
Friday Homa purchased another 640,000
Yesterday Joshua purchased 355,000.
Are they fending of any Fraser bid or loading up ready to sell to Fraser group at a much higher price.
Analysts views seen on ( D ) today . ( the previous share I looked at had 27 Analysts , this only 1 not rely a consensuses )
Stock Price Expectation.........12 MONTH EXPECTATION
Analysts expect the price to decrease by 41%.
Analyst Consensus
But only *1 analysts from global investment banks and brokerage houses are currently rating the stock.
Just for my own interest in the future .
Many shares are rising .
There was a spike up to 32.8p on 23rd May 2022 , I had thought the buy on 7th June a mistake maybe at 30p but must have had funds and bought the retrace .
Looking OK eight months on . ( was 27% down on that buy at lows in October )
Lowest of my buys 24p on 21st June 2022 .
The low was 28th October 2022 at 21.65p
Sold the second buy of 17 June 2022 back for 42p 11.30am .
The press reports lifting it 3.8% higher today .
In hindsight should of kept buying those lows .
Thought 6 average downs was time to stop .
The TIMES newspaper reporting on Mike Ashley and his company Frasers .
suggested that the planned acquisitions were a "bet" that the current slump in the retail property market is about to end.
Frasers in recent months invested in several companies. In January, it increased its stake in Manchester-based clothing and footwear retailer N Brown Group PLC to 18% from 5.0%. In October, Frasers bought a 5.1% stake in online retailer Asos PLC. Frasers has a 34% stake in German fashion retailer Hugo Boss AG.
Very interesting analysis, Beechhurst, which looks to me soundly based. All things considered, there are good grounds to be optimistic about the medium to long term prospects for the company and the share price, even if there are a few twists and turns along the way. Hopefully we can enjoy many a coffee morning, without fear of a coffee mourning!
final sentence should have concluded as : ........ coffee morning thinking, nothing more.
Plenty of hypothesis/speculation re a TO/BO or Going Private none of which, at this juncture, and in my opinion, seem likely/feasible, so time for a recap. First, the maths, so far disclosed :
SHARES BOUGHT - FRSRS 58.15M + ALNCE 15.8M = 73.95M
SHARES SOLD - SCHRDS 55.735M (RNS)/58.835M (2021 AA) + OTHERS (?) 18.215/15.115M
So some 16% of shareholders thought 30p (rising to 40p) was a good price at which to get out - WHY.
Trading decline over recent years and latest weak outlook hardly inspires one to buy the shares on performance prospects allied to which restoring the dividend looks unlikely to be affordable in the foreseeable future. Notwithstanding the "battle" probably going on in the background, some, as others on this BB, look to be taking the view "a bird in the hand ...", particularly if you think there will be a complete and unbreakable impasse with he two combatants.
So what, to the protagonists, is the attraction of BWNG, my thoughts being :
- the controlling family want to preserve/enhance their position, especially if the supposition moved to AIM for IHT purposes is correct and won't, therefore, want this status affected until have reaped the benefit, certainly for the main man, if not both senior gentlemen. On this premise there will be no disbanding of the Concert Party until, at least, these events have passed in xx (?) years time, which dismisses a T/O, etc etc for how long it takes
- Frasers can hardly be attracted to BWNG's product/merchandise range as given their existing connections could, one imagines, quite quickly/easily tap into this sort of supply chain. The other half of the business is the credit operation and if one reads the DT article from last weekend, getting access to that looks, to me, the target given what was said therein i.e.
"The Treasury has promised a crackdown on shopping loans, however as debt charities warn consumers are being encouraged to overspend.
Mr Murray is understood to believe that being regulated by the FCA should help soothe concerns that customers could be persuaded to buy unaffordable items.
To be regulated is an enormous process,” said a source familiar with his thinking. “ You need a track record of prioritising customers and treating them fairly.”
Being no easy fix starting from scratch, is all of the above not what BWNG offers as a quick and efficient entry into the desired market. The issue is how can Frsrs achieve?
The A's are clearly not going to give up their position, for personal reasons/objectives, and if there is a deal to be done what better way than from a tower of strength, hence the accumulating of more shares. Ashley/Frasers haven't, on the face of it, the ability to muscle their way in unless find a devious method, so you look at STALEMATE. The alternative is to find a collaborative way for each to meet and preserve each of their own wishes. Is that possible - time will tell. All herein just to be taken as a bit of coffee morn
I should add that both parties are obviously buying the share because they consider them to be cheap, but what price is reasonable for a Private Investor to expect or aim for that is more uncertain.
1) I don't believe Frazers will takeover the company as Alliance hold the majority 58% plus. The alliance family are said to be using it for Inheritance Tax planning ie if you hold AIM shares you pay no inheritance tax on those shares.
2) The Alliance will not takeover the company whilst the are using it for Inheritance Tax planning. However they could well do in time when the older generation have died. Thus not imminent.
Just my opinion.
Both I and my parishioners have held these shares for some time. We are getting a bit confused with all of the share movements. It would appear that one of two things will happen:
1. Frazers will take them over.
2. The Alliances will engineer a takeover taking it private.
If the Alliances take it over what price will it be? We thought that the takeover would be at an average price that they had aquired their holdings. If that is the case then the price may not be far north than the current price.
Your views would be welcomed as we are losing the plot.
every blessing
Rev Shep
I notice 2 250k trades at 13:38 and 13:47.
Is it perhaps the Lady or Mike ?
Yeah spread looking very good