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"in 2019/2020 analysts [working for the in-house broker] predicted a potential SP of 21p. "
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I find it amusing when people just quote a SP number from the past, as though that is something valid currently despite the dilution that takes place in between....our MCap was around £75m pre merger and post merger (approx 3.3b shares to be in issue) we should be around 2.3p to maintain the same value (where we happen to be now).
One may argue we have more assets under our belt but we also have more financial commitments......so I say to Simon Potter & Co "show me the money" (in what form you will get the funds needed)?
Krapper- even if these claims were made directly by the company I doubt you would accept them as valid, based on past performance! You had all the geological and technical data about Saffron, including COS, prior to the drill, yet opined that it would not produce any barrels of oil!
The trolls from CERP have long standing agendas which most refuse to explain and some, including Krapper, filter me, which I love, because I always have the last word!
exclusivity deal this time last year a major paid to see the data room with exclusive rights which they walked away from....
no one confirmed which major or why they walked but that is my understanding irene....maybe someone else has hard evidence???
Come spud the price of this will be a lot higher and all the derampers would have wished they had brought now. 8p spud
Star child thank you for your efforts, another good read.
So where do you see the sp in the following instances?
Mid December pre spud
Mid Feb/March on rumours
May with positive news?
(UPDATES since I posted this yesterday are shown in [ ] below)
CERP’s merger market cap value in June 2020 was £25.1m including a premium uplift. In October 2019 when the SP was 5.1p its market cap was c£50m. in 2019/2020 analysts predicted a potential SP of 21p (and market cap of c£200m) assuming various factors proved favourable. LGO-fan’s informative posts on this BB 29/7/20 describes what these could be in the short/medium term. When the markets closed Friday, CERP’s market cap was £17m.
Thought experiment logic-flow (all figures approximate, sources already stated in my previous posts since June 12):
1. Post-merger this week, there will be c3.4b shares in play. Imagine BPC has no assets, there are no Bahamas licenses and no spud, however there are still 3.4b shares vs 1b CERP ones today. This would mean the market cap, purely based on CERP would be in the same potential range as shown in the above introduction: £17m - £25.1m – £50m – £200m.
2. With 3.4b issued shares this would value the possible SP in the above 4 benchmark figures at approx 0.5p, 0.75p, 1.5p, or 6p WITHOUT any BPC assets, potential assets, and BPC’s DEBT FREE $11m it has in the bank today.
3. When the markets closed Friday, BPC’s SP was 2.45p and had a market cap of £61m (without CERP). In February 2020 it has a SP high of 5.7p and a market cap of £121m (without CERP). Leading to spud, analysts predicted a potential SP of 8p and market cap of [£170m] (without CERP).
When we officially merge this week, let’s assume the combined SP is as now 2.45p and a combined market cap of 83m (3.4b shares). This means CERP’s value which accounts for approx 25% of future news-flow and revenue generating assets is approx. 25% of 2.45p. When split, this is a measly 0.6p and BPC’s an even more measly 1.85p. For goodness sake, despite CLNs and a rights issue creating some dilution, BPC SP was often at 2p for years without a glimmer of news! [And without the $11m we currently have in the bank!!]
Bottom line: I don’t think the markets, retail investors and rather unusually even day traders have realised that the SP today is way, way, way below the short and medium term potential of the merged organization. And that doesn’t even take into account the benefits the merger WILL bring such as leveraging finance to drill Persv-1 and potentially increasing production/revenue from CERP assets. All IMHO. DYOR.
Starchild
xxx
[Disclosure: I am a BPC LTH since 2014 and not a day trader or get paid to do 'PR.' My regular posts, opinions and original research are all done in good faith. Since the merger announcement in June 2020, many of my postings are to counteract what I believe are negative unfair opinions (sometimes fake news) by persons who I allege wanted the merger to fail, or have no shares in BPC or CERP, or are professional de-rampers and just want the SP to go down to benefit unknown 3rd parties and/or special interest groups. Why else would a shareholder bombard a forum with
PAT when voicing your opinion it always seems to end with CERP being a tinpot company. You come across as bitter, angry and somewhat very annoyed at the company as a whole, why? It’s BPC now and thankfully so as we needed them onboard. We are no longer a one trick pony. Embrace the merger, be thankful that the future certainly looks better.
Majors do want 'in' on the acreage and indeed are in discussions now, however the preference is to drill Perseverance as 100% and sell / farmdown afterwards, unless the offers are deemed acceptable. Simple scenario for BPC. They get to drill regardless, with the added value creation of 100% on success, which they are confident of. Majors need to decide what they will do pre spud. Take the risk of sitting and watching and pay Billions post drill or do something now and be part of a Guyana mark II.
Page,
You're reaching with that one buddy.
If a major wanted that acreage they would have got in on it. You know that..
I hope this does bag for the dreamers but I fear that this has burned that many investors over the years that the merger is partly to have a tangible reason for a name change / new story to pedal so as to carry on fleecing amature investors.
Loads of v cheep shares out there due to covid, this one is like backing a 3 legged horse in the national. (It has a chance, but not a very good one)
IMO
It's precisely that is such a big opportunity that the majors played hard ball and wanted it all for themselves, but couldn't get it due to BPC saying no, we'd rather drill by ourselves. First rules of negotiating, know what you've got and don't under sell.
Page
Nothing more than the hook of the ponsie story.
If this was such a big opportunity the major would have never walked away.
Keep drumming that story whilst the bod keep emptying pockets.
Bahamas Ponsie Company
IMO
If anyone can point me to an AIM minnow that has a 100% owned drill lined up for multibillion barrel acreage (Moyes independently verified 8-10B barrels, up 20-30B potential barrels) with two separate proved oil producing regions, and producing assets with running room for significant growth in production that require a low Capex to unlock, with 100% ownership and operatorship of the entire portfolio, for 2.5p a share, sub £100m Mcap, then I'm all ears.
Star
Respectfully you do accuse people of being paid derampers on the regular.
Actually you post here multiple times every day!? Just a question but why would anyone do that unless they were being paid?
This board is full of all of the red flags of an AIM ponsie scheme. (Sp predictions, news release predictions etc)
The best prediction of future behaviour is past behaviour and unfortunately when it comes to this share the fact is that the BOD have been bleeding shareholders at every opportunity they have had, I don't see this changing, they will just find other ways of doing it. (Example is new acreage / merging with a tin pot outfit)
IMO
Irene respectfully, you attack posters on this BB daily and to the best of my knowledge you have NEVER posted anything positive on either BPC, CERP or their BoDs. I and others therefore assume you have no shares in the company or you are a paid de-ramper.
My post this morning quoted facts, followed by my view and opinion in good faith of those facts arguing the case that IMHO the SP is undervalued.
Fact 1: in 2019/2020 analysts [working for the in-house broker] predicted a potential SP of 21p.
Fact 2: you believe this is a fantasy number and on several occasions rather disrespectfully refer to a respected CEO, an engineer with patents in his name as 'Oopsie Kootsie'
My post was written using Fact 1 as one of three market cap scenarios and not a prediction, nor an assumption CERP SP would reach 21p in its own right. However despite your total confidence (and perhaps hope) it will not, I respectfully suggest professional analysts have more experience than you which is why I left it to the readers of my post to make the decision and opine for themselves.
Starchild (or as you call me 'Starfish')
Irene, CERP/BPC’s daily de-ramping diva, you are twisting my words. I clearly used that figure as a benchmark example and quoted from it, whether you agreed with the in-house broker or not.
Frankly, if we lived in Ancient Babylon and I had the dire misfortune of being your husband I would use eBay to TRY and swap you for a small goat. Similar to this unusual one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT-UGTQd6zQ . At least when I clapped my hands, ‘Kebab-Cuddles’ would immediately faint and stop yapping.
[We wish to thank our generous sponsors eBay Inc (Nasdaq: EBAY) for this post. Whether planning to build a full size replica of the Hanging Gardens of Babylon using LEGO or buying that special goat, this amazing company with its excellent trading/auctioning platform has a potential SP upside of approximately 28.04578743% by year end. ]
Bottom line: Totally ignore irritating de-rampers on share bulletin boards, gleefully clap your hands if you own eBay, CERP or BPC shares, and always DYOR.
We wish to also thank ‘the International fainting goat association’ and ‘Outrageous acts of science’ for the film clip.
Starchild
xxx
CERP’s merger market cap value in June 2020 was £25.1m including a premium uplift. In October 2019 when the SP was 5.1p its market cap was c£50m. in 2019/2020 analysts predicted a potential SP of 21p (and market cap of c£200m) assuming various factors proved favourable. LGO-fan’s informative posts on this BB 29/7/20 describes what these could be in the short/medium term. When the markets closed Friday, CERP’s market cap was £17m.
Thought experiment logic-flow (all figures approximate, sources already stated in my previous posts since June 12):
1. Post-merger this week, there will be c3.4b shares in play. Imagine BPC has no assets, there are no Bahamas licenses and no spud, however there are still 3.4b shares vs 1b CERP ones today. This would mean the market cap, purely based on CERP would be in the same potential range as shown in the above introduction: £17m - £25.1m – £50m – £200m.
2. With 3.4b issued shares this would value the possible SP in the above 4 benchmark figures at approx 0.5p, 0.75p, 1.5p, or 6p WITHOUT any BPC assets, potential assets, and BPC’s DEBT FREE $11m it has in the bank today.
3. When the markets closed Friday, BPC’s SP was 2.45p and had a market cap of £61m (without CERP). In February 2020 it has a SP high of 5.7p and a market cap of £121m (without CERP). Leading to spud, analysts predicted a potential SP of 8p and market cap of £150m (without CERP).
When we officially merge this week, let’s assume the combined SP is as now 2.45p and a combined market cap of 83m (3.4b shares). This means CERP’s value which accounts for approx 25% of future news-flow and revenue generating assets is approx. 25% of 2.45p. When split, this is a measly 0.6p and BPC’s an even more measly 1.85p. For goodness sake, despite CLNs and a rights issue creating some dilution, BPC SP was often at 2p for years without a glimmer of news!
Bottom line: I don’t think the markets, retail investors and rather unusually even day traders have realised that the SP today is way, way, way below the short and medium term potential of the merged organization. And that doesn’t even take into account the benefits the merger WILL bring such as leveraging finance to drill Persv-1 and potentially increasing production/revenue from CERP assets. All IMHO. DYOR.
Starchild
xxx