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The infrastructure is high fixed cost so if volumes of output and revenue drop signifantly infrastructure costs still exist. Under normal conditions price would be a major correlation but in these times you must also factor in volume of throughput
The lucky guy, thx for this. I have been a BP investor for half of my life, and had not noticed that the BP Share price had broken its lockstep with Brent Crude since early 2020. As it doesn't seem to have ever fallen below Brent before, then there may be the opportunity for a reappraisal and a significant upwards price correction as you suggest. I am wondering though if BP's new strategy to change its future income streams and capital investments away from Hydrocarbons may also be a factor ? An announcement about a dividend increase would certainly help an early reappraisal.
Aeroplanes only account for 9% of global oil consumpion bp is a FSTE bargain in my eyes and will be till it hits £4, if you go on HL which i use , and bring up an interactice chart and add brent and WTI BP has tracked these for years but at the moment are tracking way lower, big correction due in my view
Ok thanks Zac . Night all
Yes agree Mojo, mass of flights not until 2022 so probably plenty of time to get even better entry on that one. - one thing really surprises me is how high cruise shares are as I’d thought they’d be similar and was gutted not to buy them at the lows. I’m sure there will be more ups and downs with a lot of shares during rest of this year.
Share-be-alright - I'll come back on your points in the morning.
Agree rr a tempting one risky but I think the fact that it’s got gov contracts it will survive worse case it gets nationalised. I think flights are still way off at least till early 2022 really depends on other countries catching up on their vaccine programs that’s when re will probably at least double from its current sp. the days of 7-10 quid have gone though too much dilution. Agree with the relevance of selling in May too the economy in general is in recovery mode it reminds me of early 2009 March when things kicked off all the way to early 2011 that first year of boom saw massive gains. BP and shell no doubt if oil stays above $60 most those losses were write downs not actual losses.
Mojo . I’m considering RR soon but I’m hoping for an entry nearer a pound on that one - so maybe later this week or next but still see risk there and debt so it’s not perfect but possibly double in a few years - I’d only go with a small holding there as I’d feel more comfortable that way. I wasn’t meant to be holding shares through the summer- sell in May thing and all that but that doesn’t seem relevant this year.
Good one to look into there are fees but you can buy these via some of your usual broker etc.
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251795/ishares-ftse-100-ucits-etf-inc-fund
Zac
Do these investment trusts take a lot in managed fees?- ( that would put me off ) also do you need to lock money with them for 3 or 5 years or can you buy and sell freely? I wish I’d bought a FTSE tracker fund when FTSE was low but have no idea how or who I’d have to of used etc? Cheers GL mate
Just to add to that my position as of right now is 10% ulvr 90% cash.
At the moment low risk ftse 100 companies is my thing. I used to have holdings in bhp,aal, and Rio but, sold them off a while ago because I feel it’s reached a point where it’s better to take the capital gains vs divi. I switched to energy during covid because it was undervalued it was the first time I bought an oily since 2012. The other holdings I have interest in is ulvr as a defensive alternative it’s boring but reliable I may reduce my stake because i don’t like it’s product portfolio it’s beginning to lack unless they make some decent acquisitions. I used to have a sizeable portion of Lloyds too I stuck with it through covid because it was a good divi earner but recently sold off at a loss around 45p because of boe intervention on divi I didn’t like private companies having outside interference. I won’t be touching U.K. banking ever again after that. I used to dabble in USA stocks but complex tax affairs make it difficult to manage so I stick with U.K. at the moment it’s hard to have a pick of what to hold In uk shares other than oil because most things have recovered their fair value a pull back is needed to create more liquidity In my opinion that’s why quite a few shares have stagnated.
Mojo - Do you have other investments / investment strategy?
I'm down to 4 individual dividend paying shares. Over the last couple of years I've migrated from my dividend shares into dividend paying investment trusts. Less risk to both capital and dividends. Once my holding in BP (and Shell) reaches a level that I'm comfortable selling at then capital from here will be reallocated as well.
I'm also well diversified in a number of global and UK funds. My one piece of advise to any investor, despite any trading you might well be involved in, would be to invest every month without fail, year after year after year into a global investment fund. You don't have to invest a lot. Just do it every month. You'll be surprised how your capital builds!
I think so I don’t really like to buy when the rsi is 50 plus on the daily. I’m still going to wait and see how contract expiries play out. I still think there’s life to push it to 343 at the moment at which point I’m expecting the rsi to hit 70 plus but, there’s not much in it for me to buy now that’s why I won’t even at 325p I usually buy at the 50ma in most cases if the trend is up at the mo that’s around the 309-310 level now.
Mojo , I see a chance of a 325 buy tomorrow as adr dropped back and oil price softened slightly. If FTSE starts negative tomorrow then easy enough chance but I’m guessing you’d be happier at under 319?
Unless I see a significant enough reason then probably not unless it comes back down. I’ll continue to monitor what goes on but, rather wait for a general market pullback and assess after.
Oh dear, so you won't be a BP holder ever again ??
I understand what you say (been there, done that). However, consider the current situation. It's unique, major economic disruption, we're coming out. Say no more.
Agree long term holding cost me a years salary in the past. I wouldn’t consider myself a day trader more like an observer of day to day macro economics. If I see a situation that impacts my investment I alter my position accordingly. A lot of people like to quote buffet but, even he sold off airlines because of a change in circumstances. Many think he got it wrong time always proves who’s right and who was wrong however, none of us really know how things will play out it’s all guess work and estimation. You never stop learning in the markets. A week or two from now my position not to buy may turn out to be an absolute disaster and I miss out yet, if I’m right it’s a great move. End of the day you don’t lose money by sitting on the side lines you just don’t gain. It’s always shoulda woulda coulda in this game. I’ve sold bp at 319 and Rdsb at 13.54 bad call 100% but it’s not that far away where I couldn’t buy again if I felt it’s worth jumping on the spike but at the moment it looks like I’d get impaled if I do. One of my golden rules is never buy higher than where you sold you may miss on gains but it’s a rule that has proved profitable over the years.
Before I'd held shares for years and drip divs this year I've become hybrid tho does add a level more stress but I've got luck on my side 7 trades no losses
Am glad i'm not a day trader. Who needs the stress!