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15p after quarterly update, not for long if published on reddit...
Lol don't be silly seller doesn't have infinite shares. if we were making $100m a year right now the seller would be swallowed very very quickly at 15p so the fact it won't move until the seller clears is irrelevant. Knuttie didn't make a point he was being tongue in cheek.
I'm genuinely surprised (although perhaps I shouldn't be) that on a day like today negative banter erupts. Should we forget, for starters, that Orions conversion price is higher than the current price. V prices are rising and getting harder to ignore. The noise around batteries and VRFBs is getting louder each day. Our time is coming and it will start with a few raindrops (like today) and turn into a massive waterfall as we rerate up.
All my opinion of course. And it may not be today. But huge profits won't be ignored. Obviously. And today is a good day. I've added and added and added again at ~15p. And will continue to do so until the price rises. I may be a fool, time will tell! But 15p-16p? Honestly ... super duper bargain imo.
Fortune may feel happy with your anti-dillution proposal.
Duferco was trying to squeeze BMN to another deal, but they failed, thanks to Fortune playing better financial chess.
True. But Knuttie makes a point. If you have a huge seller content to churn a small profit and disinterested in the long run or any potential selling low, the SP won't move whatever the profit until the seller has cleared. We have seen this pattern too many times to our cost here.
Pickler. This is a really good point. Many in the know thought Duferco would hold shares. I share your concern about the CLNs. Things might change in the next 5 months; but they haven't in the last 5. I would strongly encourage you to write to FM and the BOD and ask the question at AGM. BUSHY 100 ; a poll on this issue would be much more interesting given the institutional selling over the last few years.
Like it Knuttie!
Humour makes the world go around.
KN
Hale, during that time I would also expect the base cost to be reduced significantly, allowing an even greater margin.
A bit of excitement this morning which was nice, but it appears to have stalled out for now. I’ve not had time to look yet today but have we seen any big dumps to control the price today?
naughty boy knuttie
Ha ha.... Beat me to it @knuttie
Does the Orion CLN really matter if the fundamentals of the business keep improving? It matters short term and it would stall any sharp rises but if management deliver on the expansion plan (4100 to 6800mtV by 2025), the price of Vanadium stays high and the BE part of the business keeps growing and winning tenders then surely funds and big players would move in to cancel out the sellers?
ARCM it's kinda hypothetical as that is a big ask but you'd assume $100m net profit = £71m would command an mcap of something like £850m = ~70p a share.
15p
Meanwhile buying small tranches at a suppressed price while you still can is always the positive :)
I also noticed European vanadium pricing has edged above China now $40.75/kg to $40.70/KG (not sure when that happened). Am I right in believing Europe's demand is higher than supply due to a focus on China sales due to the initial price inflation there, potentially meaning more pressure on china Vanadium pricing? probably wrong of course
Is this not exactly what the company would have wanted? Heavy investment for expansion whilst the commodity price is low, now about to reap the rewards as the price of Vanadium rises - this sort of thing is never going to be possible without some financial hardship and then you add coronavirus into the mix...
Looking good all in all.
SMT1
I hope so
Just logged on to Investor Meet Company and posted my question for the meeting on July 8th
Diamondlover, I don't want Fortune to change his strategy. From 2022, we could have company making a net profit in excess of $100m per annum. The share price will correct itself.
Pickler
My worry and I did not want to talk about
My answer to some people on this board
Forget about Vandium Price up, V Price up for the last 6 months and sp is down
Forget about Duferco is a Partner, they all rubbish get the Shares and sell to the market
Is the same story like last year will repeat it self?
For first time I write that, Fortune change your stratgey, myself I had enough for the last 2 years
Pickler, I would not worry too much about this. If the V price continues to rise, then this should attract more buyers, which means the market makers can offload a higher volume of Duferco shares. So, they should finish selling more quickly.
Pickler, I would imagine Duferco are nearly done but a good question to ask Fortune when he does the investor meet in July.
Pickler - a lot can happen in 5 months
How do the BOD propose settling the second tranche of CLN’s, valued at $11.5m (£8.1m), owned by Duferco and due for redemption in November 2021
The 37m shares issued to Duferco in settlement of the first tranche of CLN’s in December 2020, without any restrictions placed on the sale of these shares, would appear to have been slowly sold in the market resulting in a suppressed share price.
My concern is that Duferco will continue to drip feed their shares into the market at a rate that will negatively impact on the SP right up until November 2021, when the second tranche of CLN’s are due to be converted, thus allowing Duferco to obtain a significant number of shares at a suppressed SP value (54m @ 15p). Should this be the case, and Duferco have no interest in holding onto their increased share holding, we would then be left with many more months of selling affecting the SP.
To alleviate this situation, has the BOD considered any of the following to avoid issuing Duferco with further shares.
1 Use the additional cashflow from the increased vanadium price to pay off the CLN’s entirely in cash. An average increase in the value of vanadium of $3 kg for the forecasted 4,100mtv due to be sold this year, would raise $12.3m. The current price of vanadium is way more than $3 above the price used in the company budget for this year.
2. Identify one or more institutional investors to purchase 48m shares @ 17p for cash, in line with the Orion CLN’s, to provide the $11.5m (£8.1m) to clear the CLN’s.
3. Offer a placement of shares to existing shareholders, with 1 share @ 17p for every 24 currently held, to raise the $11.5m (£8.1m).
Fortune has stated that he is reluctant to cause dilution, and reduce shareholder value, but the above options 2 and 3 are only the same as converting the CLN’s to shares in favour of Duferco. Any of the 3 options would hopefully allow the SP to find its true value without being suppressed by continued heavy selling.