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If a company defaults on a loan the creditor could essentially force the company into administration (the company is insolvent). If that happened then the companies assets would most likely be sold (or the entire company bought). The first people to get paid in this scenario are the creditors, the last are the share holders. Creditors hold contracts that state the company owes them and shareholders own whats left. So Orions debt money is pretty well secured against Asset value.
If this had all gone completely wrong, Orion would have got most or all of their money they were owed. Orion are also shareholders which is good. But SPR are primarily shareholders so their risk is greater.
It is indeed very good news that Orion is over the line. And SPR completing would be great. However, BMN have raised the money - they just haven't received it, which would make Orion contractually obligated to complete. If SPR do not give the money, and BMN collapses, Orion would be first in line to get their debt money back so their risk is minimal even in this scenario.
Obviously if I go positive negative happens and if I go negative positive happens. So likely the SPR money will go over the line tomorrow and this goes up to the conversion price. Just something to think about!
Weak hands is a little patronisng mate ;), no need to spare a thought for me at least. I held from my initial buys at 8p all the way up and down and averaged down all the way. I had complete faith in the vision but bad leadership and global events totally stuffed it up. The reality yesterday was binary. I held until the last minute of these CLNs expiring. Easy to see it now and say things are a lot safer, not so much the situation yesterday which was dire from the public information available.
But SPR are still an issue. Who are those guys? Orion must now and feel Ok with it, but up until today we had no idea that was the case. Cash burn is still an issue, V price same.
So for me and my risk appetite right now I'll wait until that is solved and the V price plays ball. Plenty of opportunity here in the future but that future is still not secured. However I recommend nobody listens to me as I am an expert at holding when I shouldn't and selling when I shouldn't. Hopefully this is a real turning point!
I agree with you. I've been in here for years but have sold out today, losing my shirt in the process but just about holding onto my underwear. Had a sleepless night last night and could do without it. I genuinely hope I'm as wrong about this as I have been about BMN over the last 5 or 6 years, even though it rising would mean I lose more money. I have a lot of faith that CC is a great businessman, but I fear this is all a bridge too far.
Super duper sad to have sold out, and at a ~90% (and very substantial) loss. But I feel the current situation is far more precarious than I can cope with. GLA
If they were waivering they would have waivered before they signed contracts, surely. I'm inclined to lean more towards just a short delay in money being transferred, as the RNS states. These things happen. Totally agree not the best way to kick off the year though, although at least we are getting transparency in real time.
Fair enough. My understanding is that they can go over the $20m if they wish from reading the RNS thoroughly, but I am far from an expert in such matters. However, if there are more offers on the table than shares that are to be issued then I imagine that takes time to resolve. Although I concede if they are unable to push people over the line to subscribe they may leave it open for longer also. I just don't think the slowness to declare immediately implies with any certainty that the book wasn't filled. Although I'm sure the share price remaining stubornly below the placing price won't help persuade people to partake. Maybe :/
I'm not sure. If it was oversubscribed it may take longer to decide the exact amount to issue and who to. If it was as simple as SPR taking the minimum amount and the directors chipping in whatever they are taking then I'd have thought that would (or should) be announced quickly. But what do I know.
The delay makes me a little jumpy but I still added another 100k today. Not often I've been given the opportunity to buy in a good percent less than IIs coming in.
From the RNS:
Production for first 9 months = 2784
October = 387
Expected Vametco = 200 x 2 = 400
Expected Vanchem = 150 + 180 = 330
Add that all up and you get expected production for the year at 3901. I'm sure not many of us were happy when one of the first RNS under Craigs tenure was to reduce production guidance and increase cash cost guidance.
But the fact cash costs so far are ever so slightly below guidance ($26.4 vs guidance of $26.6 and US$26.9 and production looking towards the top end (barring any disasters in the last 2 months of course) tells me everything I need to know about Craig at this point.
He stepped up, saw guidance was going to be missed (again) and accurately put in place realistic targets that may end up towards the top end or slightly exceeeded. Good job! More of this please and guidance next year returning to the 4200+ level would be most welcome.
Plenty of us still around Pdub. I'm sitting on a loss and unhappy with that obviously. I'm not over the moon with company comms, but nothing changed much there for years.
But the point we have been waiting for is in sight and I'm happy to wait for that. Taken longer than many of us had hoped, of course. But VRFBs are taking off big time, and we hold a significant share in one the best, soon to be main market listed and valued on it's own merits. The whole move into VRFBs, the pushing of that market opportunity, the growing of the mining and processing business to these levels, and the entire integrated model is hugely ambitious and quite genius.
The companies operational growth in such challenging times has been exceptional. Electrolyte plant almost ready. 5000MTV+ run rate incoming. BE ready to split and become worth something. Mini grid funded and coming.
We shall see if these assets were overpriced soon now that profitability has been achieved.
Externally, V price is rising and steel production use on it's own likely to be very significant with China looking very promising, tanks and planes to build (unfortunately) and a whole lot of rebuilding and building out of recessions to do. So much to look forward to.
I don't see the need to post much. I know what I know, and I think what I think. I used to enjoy it here when chat was informative, and will almost certainly be active again once things pick up. As I'm sure many of us will be. Sentiment is a bizarre thing. I don't picture everything as perfectly rosy but do believe the current MCap is a joke. I believe a lot of the trash talk comes from people that thing that sentiment = business reality.
Exciting times and one of the clearest and easiest to digest RNS that BMN have put out (or maybe I've just been following so closely for so long it just all makes sense). I'm interested now to hear more of how the actual carve out of BE itself will work. but I am sure all this info is now coming. Merry Christmas!
Vametco guidance: 2,550 mtV - 2,650 mtV. 9M=1,892 mtV. Q3=666 mtV. Amount needed to hit guidance=658-758 mtV. Feels like we are bang on here.
Vanchem guidance: 1,350 mtV - 1,450 mtV. 9M=765 mtV. Q3=350 mtV. Amount needed to hit guidance=585-685mtV (or an average of 195mtV a month).
I guess the question remains (as is highlighted in the RNS) as to whether load shedding will prevent this from being hit or not. Hard to say what Vanchems output in September would have been without the most severe load shedding yet - and no broken promises as you seem to think, it's right there in black and white. A vast improvement in reporting. As I said, plenty of people feel they are too pessimistic in RNS, concentrating on negatives - like load shedding.
"Vanchem has been actively engaging with the local municipality to implement a load curtailment solution. A bilateral technical team from Vanchem and the municipality is preparing for necessary technical hardware to migrate to the curtailment regime that would signal a marked production improvement for Vanchem."
You can argue they should revise guidance down now on the expectation of missing it, but they clearly believe they should still be able to hit it, with caveats, all laid out plainly in the RNS. Of course the share price has taken a kicking for many reasons but how much more of a kicking do you think it will take IF guidance is missed? What do you think the company should be valued at?
FWIW I work with a lot of people in South Africa and it is a nightmare when one of them drops off calls due to power loss. It has been by far the worst period of it I've ever observed (as an outsider).
Anyway, debate is also over for me as I am sure you will find something else spuriously negative to say if I continue, and nothing I can say will change that. So we will have to agree to disagree on Fortunes integrity and the attempts by the company to fix the mistakes of the past. BMN have had a lot of bad luck thrown in here as well, hopefully that changes.
Good luck with your investments alfredh!
Indeed. And reporting methods were changed to attempt to prevent it happening again with constantly revised targets based on actual production numbers and giving expected run rates for the future (again based on actual production). We are looking at a much more mature business than we were back then. If anything, the fact these mistakes have been rectified and the business has matured so much should be applauded. Short term pain, of course. Long term? That is where we should be looking.
So ... mistakes were made 4 years ago. Lessons have been learned. Reporting is indeed now very much more cautious and complete (much to the annoyance of many who wish for more upbeat info). Feels like flogging a dead horse and living in the past to go on about it.
We all know targets ended up being overly optimistic in the past. Now things seem much better and more on track. There are, of course, many challenges still existing that are out of BMN control, or they are trying to rectify. But we should be looking forward, not back.
Someone knows we are massively undervalued and that really ought to change at some point in the not too distant future. Can't believe I'm happy to be back over 10p. And how quiet this once super active forum is, shame (I am on the Telegram group which is very active).
See you all again when we hit 20p, which will still be hugely undervalued with the Electrolyte plant running, legal issues with Cellcube resolved, more months of solid, growing production, and a V price that is looking increasingly exciting.
IMO obviously.
The price took a steep dive towards the end of 2017 through September and October before going on it's massive climb. It dropped nearly 50%, in fact, rather rapidly. So a dramatic reversal is very possible.
Agreed. I appreciated Fortune voluntarily taking on the question at the end with regard to the share price. However I have commented I would still like to see directors putting their hands into their pockets and showing the same level of commitment as I have to the company.
The reality is that the focus on institutions rather than PIs has, so far, borne little fruit. And the very large PI holding surely shows that focus really should be on us until such time as it is no longer needed.
However, I am very much reassured that the production figure revision is to move to a more reliable and achievable way of estimating production. I do now believe we will overachieve on targets and that that will boost sentiment and the share price.
Hopefully this level of engagement is the shape of things to come! Very good stuff! Reassuring and very much appreciated.
Lol don't be silly seller doesn't have infinite shares. if we were making $100m a year right now the seller would be swallowed very very quickly at 15p so the fact it won't move until the seller clears is irrelevant. Knuttie didn't make a point he was being tongue in cheek.
I'm genuinely surprised (although perhaps I shouldn't be) that on a day like today negative banter erupts. Should we forget, for starters, that Orions conversion price is higher than the current price. V prices are rising and getting harder to ignore. The noise around batteries and VRFBs is getting louder each day. Our time is coming and it will start with a few raindrops (like today) and turn into a massive waterfall as we rerate up.
All my opinion of course. And it may not be today. But huge profits won't be ignored. Obviously. And today is a good day. I've added and added and added again at ~15p. And will continue to do so until the price rises. I may be a fool, time will tell! But 15p-16p? Honestly ... super duper bargain imo.
Well I was in the teams meeting but couldn't hear the spelling of all the bidders properly so here is my somewhat butchered list as best as I could hear it (sorry I know a load of these are spelt wrong). Detectives - which one is us? :)
Sandoc JV
Tesla
Jianghsuzhongtin technology
Power China JV
Hysoung Industries
Pinggao Group
Wartsila Finlandoy
Cobra Nara
DEC
Presta China Group Telecom