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Just going by the slides, as I missed that part of the talk, but the presentation slide text says: “Combined UK manufacturing capacity when fully scaled-up that is available to Avacta (depending on access to equipment funded by HM Government) is 5 – 30 million tests per month.”
...Implying if not fully scaled up, the capacity could initially be <5m/month. Possibly the extra c.25m per month is government-funded capacity, which if we don’t secure the uk govt as a customer, will probably go elsewhere, or just sit dormant until we can hammer out PHE approvals and ink that deal with the UK govt. That’s why getting the contract with them does matter - because it’s linked to our manufacturing scale up.
Of course, if we secure 50m/month of overseas capacity or more, that doesn’t matter, but this upside is notional until it lands.
So the uncertainty range on capacity by the end of the summer is still really large at <5m up to nearer 100m per month.
In my view, this remaining uncertainty, and certainty on orders, needs to be resolved before we can re-rate. Personally I’m confident that a lot of positive news is coming in the next month on these fronts, but you have to admit there is a lot of wiggle room to the downside in the conservative estimate range.
Just the bedwetters wanting everything now leaving
Was a solid presentation - the 5m initial production was communicated in the previous presentation but the upside was 10m or so IIRC, we've now got up to 30m + overseas
No defined timeline on at home use - but it was pretty clear to me we'll sell all we can make regardless, this will eventually come
Discussions with UK govt slower than expected - well we're British and have an amazing test and it will come or the supply just goes elsewhere
Again, from what I gathered we're just limited by supply now - you'd expect a raft of news on OEMs/licensing deals to consistently flow through
What an absolute gift of an entry
Now why would we be concerned about the UK when AS has already indicated supply is the issue, not demand. . Like it or not the UK is a fairly small island these days and personally I’d be delighted if he waved two fingers towards PHE .
Yup, and as/when the gov't contract lands, if it's not truly ginormous, the SP will take a GDR-style dump and we may be sitting on a 30/40% drop, I should not be surprised. Something to mull.
Hyper, I know the answer to my question, its not 310p yet because its not worth it yet!
In a nutshell, future earnings..whatever they may be anticipated, expected, or predicted to be.....is FUTURE earnings, ie not in the bank this week or this month, unkown!
Thats why traders took their beans off the table.
If they had announced a big contract with an upfront payment of £100m, in the bank, the sp would be £5 by now.
Thats the difference, AIM is brutal.
My investments swings by a few grand here regularly but over the last 12 months its increased in value massively....I don’t intend to sell a bean.
Good luck spreading fear so you can trade for beer money you mugs.
@Bottomz - because there no maths that supports 273, let alone 246. This is based on sentiment. Yes I am heavily invested, and with a high average, so I'm not knocking this, just answering your question.
So, a good sell off after the `amazing` presentation...who`d have thunk it?
Apart from traders, chartists and those who study the psychology of the markets!
A high of 273p earlier..... 246p now!!
Why isn`t it at 310p???
It goes down every time they have one of these, or a Vox interview. As another poster said, the market wants figures orders. Money coming in. It'll bounce back, bit that's the hard truth.
It was already priced in.
Hemo is a pre clinical company hoping to become clinical with revolutionary treatments. They are worth less than 20m
As posted earlier today 5m a month income initially covers half a year of total business expenditure. Even that is transformational, but it'll ramp up as fast as possible. I'd see 10m follow in quick succession
Yes Eric, Dr Smith said that the GAD process had been 'revised' and that the revised version is being adopted by BBI and ABDX. They are perhaps a little behind but they will be catching up soon (words to that effect). I think he was a little conservative in his language because this is not the forum to announce things that BBI and ABDX will have to announce by RNS. But it doesn't take the brains of an Archbishop to read between the lines.
Production estimates have to be conservative for now but I feel confident they will balloon soon
Early May for professional use and consumer self tests to follow. Great news. They just now have to use all the Innova LFT up first. Good way is to send them all out free ?
I heard max 5m from GAD, BBI and Abingdon combined
What’re people’s thoughts on the capacity figures?
My thoughts: 5 mil a month initial capacity from GAD. It sounds like TT from GAD to BBI and Abingdon is well underway, so add another potential 5? Million a month once that’s complete? So 10 million a month from already disclosed manufacturing partners, when all firing on all cylinders. My guess is that then the final up to 20 million a month would come from additional GAD capacity (potentially currently reserved for ‘sovereign’ test) and ODX?
Just my musings.
I'm speechless how big this company will be.
Going to load up more myself. So so pleased