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Rolly is talking utter crap. Of course its not going to be no profit contracts for manufacturers or the test owner. Nonsense. Why don't you look at a materially relevant comparator - the UKRTC antibody test. As I understand it manufactures made a fair bit of margin and Abingdon who I believe was the test owner, made more. This is where folk get figures like 1 quid margin for manufacturers and 2/3 for test owner from. At just 30m produced a month that's more than the MCap of Avacta made in profit in a year. And 30m was intended to be just the start - there is clearly still an intention to push on with Toyota on board to help that. I believe that with respect to the antibody test the govmt also bought a lot of kit which widened margins further. They seem to be doing similar with respect to antigen judging by the bidstats contracts.
Rolly even on your estimate of 50m (which I think is way off the mark) what are you moaning about? - 50m Pure profit from ONE deal in ONE relativly small country. Now lets add in the MINIMUM 5m capacity that avacta have if we take away government capacity (which I have said previously I think is closer to 10m I think AL is been conservative) but lets go with 5m and lets say £1 profit a test. We can see from the contract lengths this may last a while but lets say its magically gonna dissapear in 12 months. So lets say 60m a year profit from UK manufacturing (at a quid profit a test) not including deals with Government. Add both together thats 110m PROFIT. Sod it lets say we are not the government - 60 Million PROFIT in the UK over 12 months from manufaturing AS has managed to reserve outside government.
Europe is what 10 times larger but lets say we manage to get capactiy over there of say another 10m a month (double what we have in the UK - Who knows they may help boost capacity just to stick it to the british government) they would snap our hands off for whatever we can produce of the BEST test available I imagine so I think there is a little more profit available so lets say £1.25 a test. Thats gives us another 150m PROFIT over 12 months bring us to 210m
America will take a few too lets say they will take another 5m a month. They are not gonna be taken for mugs £1 a test profit or a cruise missle up your a$$. Another 60m over 12 months probably through licencing. We now at 270m
South america\ asia\ africa\ middle east - We have a deal with Mologic to provide tests to poorer nations at much less of a profit but we they pump out 250 Million across them all in a year white labelling. Although we are only making 25p a test... booo so lets say another 60m profit over 12 months.
So over 12 months we are looking at £330m PROFIT to pump into all the other dignostic pipelines and more importantly the therapeutics. Avacta have also proved affimers work and shone the spotlight on all the things it has going on. Whats not to like??
The hard work is done we have a test and it is currently the best test. Have a beer (Im on my 5th) enjoy the weekend and look forward to next week. It will all be alright fella trust the stranger on the internet what can go wrong.
BTW All this is just the LFT throw in everything else and I think we will be alright.
That guy on twitter. Sunny d, AVCT Facts etc has offered a charity bet. If he's wrong and we're not the sovereign test then I owe £100. If we are then he pays to the alzheimers charity. If I'm wrong I'll happily pay to his charity plus £10 for every recommended this message gets. Let's get some good out of the odx AVCT BS
Rolly . Your maths doesn’t stack up. You do realise £50m is just 3.57% of 1.4 billion? Do you seriously think the “clever bit” representing our best in class patented technology is worth that? You are picking figures out of thin air. It is wildly misleading and almost certainly seriously inaccurate.
Stifel suggested margins of 35% on revenues of mid single digits per test, there’s a clue for you. Using those margins, £1.50 is conservative. Your desired £100m revenue can be banked with 20m tests at a very conservative £5 a test. Do you think we’ll manage that? Bear in mind the significant demand in Europe and the minimum suggestion of 5m per month production. Plenty numbers for you to think about there. You should try putting numbers together, not just plucking arbitrary ones out your posterior.
PL i know the manufacturers wont be getting 1.4bn most of it will be soent on the raw materials. This is my point, for all we know all this could be at cost, we need the numbers. Myles was saying we will make 1.50 a test, so everyone started calculting stuff, but reality is noone has a clue how much anyone is going to make, which is why we need to numbers to get a rerate.
Rolly, those manufacturer contracts are the maximum values. Ask ODX how much they made from their pointless antibody test contract. If you believe they’ll end up getting £1.4bn, what planet are you on to think that the owners of the IP will end up with only £50m. The levels of stupid on this board continue to dazzle and amaze me...
Just to add more coincidence to an already over-coincidental 12+ months between Avacta and UK DHSE related timelines...16 Feb is the date of supplier signature in the contract. It is also the date Avacta disclosed their initial clinical validation results via RNS.
Listen to the presentation. We have 5m/month capacity at day one. Minimum. This will move the SP. not hugely, granted, but it’s the start. He’s got EU desperate for more than they can produce. And now a strong HMG connection.
Roll - Who OWNS the IP ? The value isn't manufacturing, you have provided the £50m number - let's see the true number. Alistair talked about OEM and white labelling, this is easy money for them. We sign deals and give the heavy lifting to someone else. This is just one use case for our technology and there is certainly a market for this.
Also interesting that Al has been moaning at length of time it's taken the govt to get it's arse on gear, this contract was signed way back in Feb. Al would have known it was signed. We (or I) thought he was moaning about how long PD took, actually he was probably moaning at the time being taken from organising manufacturing to them approving our test, and forcing us to pivot from our planned saliva.
Al met with Boris on 27/08/2020 to discuss scaling up mass testing, along with mologic and a few other players, such as Novacyt, optigene, who were just in the PCR space at the time. 8 months later and we're only now approaching the finishing line.
So for a tender of 1.4bn (odx and GAD) we only make 50m and you think the market will like that? I think we would struggle to go past the PT of 310p on that. Then we would need to wait for the next deal and based on AS record, i dont fancy waiting till xmas. Personally thought we would be a lot higher after the CV rns which is why i think, we are at the stage where potential is priced in, and now need the numbers.