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Totally agree McTickle. Have a look at Avi Tilbury on Seeking Alpha.
Not sure about wiser 600 Thieves - time will tell.
mctickle1, older and wiser? As always, timing is the key. As Warren Buffett said in 2000 'Market timing when ‘clocks have no hands’. ATB
FWITW - my view of the rest of the year is a bit like the the dotcom boom (unfortunately old enough to have been in it.
I think Dow could well double by the autumn in the big 'Melt Up' like dotcom. I think there will be mad Fomo before a very large crash. The last few weeks of the melt up will be huge and that is where the biggest money will be made - timing will be interesting - the way down will be swift and nasty.
Whether Bitcoin stays up as a store of value or goes down with rest of the market i have no idea.
I am an old codger so what do i know - but that is my thoughts.
Good morning RC,
IMO, BTC will outperform gold. I too think ARB will break, and hold, the £3 level this week. The $1.9t stimulus is another factor to push BTC higher, and hopefully ARB. Then the operational update will be looming (between 3 - 5 April ) which will - I am sure bring another tick up. Too many variables to know with ARB but for me, we have the brightest future I dare invest in. Onwards and upwards and for sure, I will accumulate as many as I can. ATB
Agree certainly very difficult to predict anything in the ST around ARB / BTC. Longer term becoming clearer
e.g. would you predict BTC or gold more likely to be 50% up from current price by year end?
I would say BTC almost certainly so and gold almost certainly not.
Get the feeling the £3 ARB SP may be broken and held this week. we have been through it a couple of times now and feels close to breaking for good IMO. Again let's see!
Good morning Pedrobull, thanks for your response. It's somewhat reassuring to hear I'm not the only one to have lost a tidy sum - albeit I wouldn't wish that on anyone. I see BTC as riskier that most with the dips and surges - may well be a day traders paradise, but for me, it's not! I see it as a trend that will be upwards based simply on demand and supply and the general corporate acceptance but no less, the private individual where they see a better return than 0.01% in the building society.
I had a devil of a job getting Mrs 600 to open an ISA to transfer some of my holdings for the, (current) CGT advantages. This tax benefit may get hit but I don't think it will be totally wiped out in the foreseeable future. I don't know anywhere to trade cryptocurrencies where the profits are CGT exempt so that is one obstacle for me. I need to keep hold of as much of my money as I can - at least for now.
ARB is volatile but hopefully will settle down a bit when on NASDAQ. In the meantime, I do not see any better opportunity than here. Cheers and ATB
Maybe China won't "ban it"... may be Chinese authorities will expropriate it and prevent it being held / mined by corporates/individuals ? Behind the scenes things rarely turn out to be so black and white.
Like you I am retired and this is most successful investment ever having been investing and trading since the before the 87 crash.
I lost our £40K mortgage savings in March 2000 which was a big blow and Mrs Pedro wasn't best impressed.
Step forward two decades and I just bought another 10,000 Argo at 16:29pm on Friday for £24K.
Anyway back to your question what's first I think is £10 ARB.
However bear in mind we may see neither!
The NASDAQ has been overpriced for a long time (IMHO) with a constant buy the dip mentality, Tesla is now under $600 now having hit $900 recently. The big question I have is how will BTC hold up if there is a full blown risk off sustained selling off on big tech NASDAQ etc
Maybe best of both worlds - China stops mining , but Chinese companies keep investing
Was thinking the same thing - my enemies enemy is my friend , so less attacks on BTC although presume Fed will still be anti but maybe less harsh regulation.
I was thinking about this whole China ban thing. Surely this could play into the US hands to break away from China as the biggest world power.
Although I'm not clued up on it so everyone feel free to correct me.... BUT if China ban bitcoin to use their own digital currency, and the US and rest of the world adopt and embrace bitcoin, wouldn't that make a dent in the progression of China being the richest nation in the world?
Was just reading this and it got me back to thinking about the Chinese miners and suggestions by some that them being banned would be terrible for BTC.
Maybe I’m looking at this far too simplistically but while there would perhaps be a large sell off and a reduction in BTC price long term it provides many more opportunities for ARB.
Just off the top of my head you’ve got; less competition, less coins being mined (increasing value), less market manipulation and possibly less resistance from western governments.
Obviously there is an issue with losing a substantial number of people in China who trade or hodl it but over time this would level out with the number of IIs buying in.
Anyway just some random thoughts this morning.
Lottohopes, thanks - some new angles for me, and the link is much appreciated. Wainright helps me understand where you're coming from, never knew this existed! ATB
600thieves: here are my two pence thoughts. ARB will continue accumulating bitcoin (and Zcash) through out 2021 and beyond. In that sense, prevailing market price of bitcoin creates a number for our balance sheet, but we are unlikely to sell it all any time soon.
I have posted few days ago, that the first half of the year is more important (for us) in my view, given our expansion occurs right now. The difficulty rate hasn’t risen as steeply as the bitcoin price, new machines (as far as other miners are concerned) are awaiting addition in second half of year. Plus now we hear that Mongolian authorities have given April as the dead line for bitcoin/ETH miners to get out of the region. They mine about 7.7% of the world’s capacity in hash rate. That will be absorbed by companies like ARB who are adding hash rate as we speak. Bitcoin price can stay at 45-50k for the rest of the year for all I care. Steady accumulation of bitcoin and our expansion into DeFi will drive growth in our share price. Early Q4 sees the first chunk of the ePIC miners coming online ie the Texas facility is being built over next 6 months.
I ve been trying to read up and understand the Chinese policy on bitcoin. From what I see early on, they liked the revenue/tax generated by miners. Now they see the whole thing as a competitive threat to their digital currency roll out, plus it compromises the green targets set in each region. The miners have been struggling to cash in their bitcoin, with accounts suspended, raids on facilities etc. Convenient timing after the halving. I suspect many of the miners are less efficient than our own ARB given they were running on cheap electricity, which is becoming dearer by the day. So all in all, bitcoin mining is becoming more “decentralised” which can only be a good thing. If it becomes less China centric, that too can only be a good thing. Some of that hash rate will emerge in the US, which is looking to support growth of this industry. Again, a good thing for our growth plans. ARB is diligently creating a vertically integrated operation based in the US, with access to capital, talent, solid relationships with the best ASIC miners (hardware and software), hash rate management (Luxor), crypto related financing (Celsius Network) etc augurs well for us.
Take a look at HC Wainwright’s completed transactions page. Staggering deals. We were small fry for these folks. Almost every listed crypto firm goes through them.
So for me the value drivers: number of bitcoin accumulated in H1 will outnumber (proportionately for hash rate expansion) that accumulated in H2. Zcash will take off given it just had its halving in November 2020. Pluto digital will list Q3 21 and new projects emerge. Luxor intends to list eventually in 2021-again our seed capital will multiply manifold imho. ePIC is very innovative and interested in blockchain, proof of stake work etc. I see more collaboration emerging. IMHO only. P
RC, interesting you say we should be £15 when BTC hits $100k. Seems logical but one thing I recall being taught at school, logic is not reality. My favourite expression is 'time will tell'. Other points like Rajbury's "NASDAQ will certainly be less volatile in their sp" another gem. Thanks, peeps, all useful. Never a dull moment with ARB. ATB
I think companies joining NASDAQ will certainly be less volatile in their sp. Once on a major exchange, it will invite the scrutiny of professional analysts who will pore over every aspect of the company's operations, history and performance. IIs leave nothing to chance, so valuations tend to be more static and not so influenced by day-to-day sentiment. We may see ARB trading in a much narrower and stable range, unlike now.
I've seen a few posts saying newly listed company's on NASDAQ experience a rise then a big ask off, is that normal?, and why? Someone mentioned shorting once
If(when) get on to NASDAQ there will be a significant bounce for Argo, then a large pull back, for the rapid push up to £10 (imo)
This will come before $100k BTC, but will be dependent on BTC having strong sentiment to reach $100k
This could come much faster than we think/realise, however, I am looking at around August/September
Also, Argo will have investments in Blockchain, Pharma Tie In's (no coincidence P.Wall being on Cellular Board), as well as, imo, pushing towards 4 to 6 e/h with new Texas facility
Agreed. If we follow the same leverage as historically we should be c £15 when btc hits $100k.
Will be an interesting one.
Easily £10 ARB as there is too much good news about this company
My sole aim in investing, and trading, is to secure enough capital for several projects before I pop my socks (I’m 70 next June so not decades like the youngsters here.) Since starting to invest, I’ve had a tendency to go all-in with any one share that I have researched and believe in the BoD, and their strategy, and the assets. My first big lesson was year one, 2012, ANGM who went bust, I didn’t know how to research! Then IOG, but plans were put back due to fraud with their main lender and I went for HZM. I’m not keen on surprises but am equally, not risk averse. A punt here and I saw ARB as more likely to take off and switched after researching the company; I had no idea about cryptocurrencies and in honesty, still don’t understand the volatility. I can see the sense in mining and like our diversity and of course blockchain technology.
A basic principle that appeals to me is the demand/supply with the 21m limit on BTC production (as it stands) and the failure to make money with FIAT fuelling demand; at least that is how I see it.
Anyone reading my posting history will see snippets of trying to day trade. Most of my day trades backfire, I’m more successful over a 2 to 3 week period and this is my best chance of increasing my holding - or so I believe.
Key catalysts/points I see here:
• Continue to ‘print money’ with additional machines and ones that are more efficient plus cheaper electricity. Texas will happen/come online towards the end of 2021.
• Profits from mining could minimise the use of the loan facility to develop Texas.
• DASDAQ: 90 days from 11 February when we broke $2 OR 5 days at $4 plus 6 weeks for processing the application; likely to happen before the end of June 2021?
• FTSE 250: third set of audited accounts expected next month and next reshuffle of FTSE in June. We are well ahead of existing FTSE 250 companies so should make it in June?
I’m expecting the proverbial problem with ARB breaching £10 or BTC $100,000 but expect to breach both by Xmas 2021. I’ve been wrong many a time. Any thoughts? All IMO and DYOR, GLA