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You say that CLSK but bitcoin mining isn't the hyped sector it once was, the moves of yesteryear don't happen. Just look at Argo since the turn of the year, down 62% against a BTC price move of $40k to $66k. Investors are more sophisticated now, they know when a placing is coming and they back the f*** off immediately.
BTC really has to go ballistic in a very short space of time for Argo to explode imo.
The picture should become clearer for Argo in the next month or so, interesting to see the impact of the halving to how much they generate monthly, increased fees shouldn't be a complete half of revenue which is good and if other things launch in the next month that should ramp up fees more hopefully. Argo had started to build up a slight reserve of BTC so hopefully aim to clear the outstanding debt in the months ahead!
Helios was switched on in 2022, so most were switched on then. Galaxy seemed to get a good PPA, and that is Argo's main asset just now, and more than makes up for the inefficiency of the ~30 J/T machines they have. However Argo's overheads are high (why who knows as all the work gets done by the host - Galaxy - so they have a lot of staff doing seemingly nothing), and the interest payments are a drag.
So at this point in time they are treading water fine in my opinion - perhaps sinking a little but not enough to drown them.
The real issue is the hosting agreement ends at the end of the year and it's not in Galaxy's shareholder's interest to continue the current agreement as it is, so I can't see that happening and that's the brick wall they are racing towards.
Yes they are overvalued by any fundamental analysis, but no chance would I short a bitcoin miner in a bull run. At the end of the bull run yes, but who knows when that is.
I dodged a bullet on jet2 today big drop luckily I sold yesterday and bought mara ...got my average down to 22 now ...fingers crossed it keeps rallying
CLSK, in terms of Argo, we must be nearing the point where their rigs are starting to lose efficiency with the worst performing needing replacing? Weren't they switched on between 2020 and 2022?
The SP here has remained so artificially high, we're talking net liabilities, debt that dwarfs cash, back to burning rather than generating monthly cash (break even perhaps temporarily) and with their hosting agreement a few quarters away from ending - and still a market cap of £71m.
If only I had the cajones to short.
Yes that's the part that no one knows, I didn't think they'd still be elevated now but they still are.
HK etf goes live April 30 according to twitter.
I get that, so right now it's more like a quartering than a halving.
Still, from everything I'm reading there is an expectation that these sky high fees will drop back in the weeks ahead and we will be at a near halving of revenue, even if difficulty tails off a bit with it.
HC, currently miner revenue is around 75% of what it was pre-halving thanks to the elevated fees. I'm confident there is no post halving hash reduction, and expect network hash to carry on upwards.
So there hasn't been a "halving" for the miners as yet.
See fees column here:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks
Well the average fees since the halving is over the 3.125btc lost (3.79btc per block) even in the last 100 blocks the fee average is over 2.8btc (2.88btc) so I would say that the revenue from fees is covering for most of the loss of the halving reward.
‘Been a good post-halving so far 👍 Fees still elevated, who knows how long that lasts, not as crazy as the weekend, but still it's pretty surreal how at a quick glance if you were to look at overall rewards now, it's almost as if halving didn't happen.‘
Difficulty about to be adjusted up slightly so fees need to make up for about a 52% drop in revenue overnight. That’s not happening, not even close.
Https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/chinese-fx-outflows-soar-priming-next-bitcoin-surge
'So don't be surprised if in the next 6 months Bitcoin doubles again, and the move has nothing to do with ETF inflows, the halving, or frankly anything else taking place in the US... and instead is entirely driven by China's massive wall of money which at last check was almost 3x bigger than the US.'
GLA
Been a good post-halving so far 👍 Fees still elevated, who knows how long that lasts, not as crazy as the weekend, but still it's pretty surreal how at a quick glance if you were to look at overall rewards now, it's almost as if halving didn't happen.
Same appears to go for hashrate at the moment too. I'm sure some miners that planned to pull older machines offline will have decided to keep them chugging along for longer on account of these fees. While that's the case difficulty will stay high too of course, so swings and roundabouts, but I don't think the market or anyone serious was ever banking on a sustained difficulty drop.
Same to you swans x
Looks like the halving FUD that smashed a lot of the miners last couple of weeks is over and with the TX fee increase, its not really been a true halving....Could be a very good cycle coming to us now and we should keep seeing BTC climb for the foreseeable too.
GLA
Cheers Chaebol.Very difficult selling anything at the moment.Quite happy with the positions already in.Good day for Mara and other miners at the moment.long may it continue.Best wishes with your investments and for yourself.atb
Not much idea tbf swans. I had a look early last year and cant see anything bad from the quick scan i just had..... from memory, zero debt which is pretty admirable and 4EH ish about 70 odd million in BTC and cash 230 mill mcap and a low share count. If it feels good and you cant see any obstacles in the way go for it swans, I just don't know enough on BTBT to be sincere.
Migi is my alt for now. If that hits 4 bucks again it either goes to another alt and i am liking WULF or probably into Mara.
Chaebol what’s you’re thoughts on Bit Digital.Lagging a bit but still gets a Zacs rating of 1.Does seem to be manipulated a lot.I ,m only using Zac as a point of reference it never influences me in any decision making.atb
Yeh makes sense.....I think those shares are issued officially on the 8th May, brokers no doubt forward sold them but id be looking around that date to see how those shares have been absorbed and hopefully a weaker price than now.
Thanks for the insight Chaebol. Just reading through the chats now. Might jump in when the dust settles
Yeh this sp of 1.1 1.2 seems to have been GST home for months, release a vague positive RNS and then do a raise on that rise! lol if it falls under 1p ill add. Im in it for the FCA approval so until that comes home we will see the joys of aim play out.
And in fairness to GST they have always used the funds for serious acquisitions, although the timing on this raise, definitely could have been worked better.
GST placing...not following it too intently but nearly jumped it over the past few weeks. Doesn't look to be much detail on what the proceeds will be spent on. Typical AIM...
Https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/block_time/5y?f=m10&r=day&t=l
Block times back below 10 mins, I don't think we get any drop in network hash. Although makes sense with the fees making up most of the halving loss. Miner machine efficiency and electricity cost are key for miner success.
Hash rate looking pretty aggressive. Hypothetical but fair to say, global hash rate could be over 800 EH the next month, at that rate Argo 2 EH literally gets you 1.1 ish BTC per day without TX fees. Argo going to need 150k plus BTC just to keep going imo.
Thanks
Really poor how they got into this state in the first place. Still, think we should see that this the next 3-4 months
I think $4.5m-$5m revenue would be break even so as things stand around $95k BTC give or take $10k.
April's revenue figure will remain inflated as the halving effect won't be seen til May's numbers.
Out of curiosity, what roughly is our BE price of BTC post halving forecasted to be?