We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
They like data centres.
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/01/17/1579255604000/Markets-not-live--Friday-17th-January-2020/
means investors will have to dig deep to invest in AHT in the future. Lucky I have a bucket load though I was tempted to sell on results. Ex-Divi day was yesterday and the dip has been more than surpassed by an entrenched rise today. I can see this one going much hire than the current SP.
I've sold today at 2,463p... I like the company, I think the business is solid and the future construction market in the US and UK is not as dire as reports would have us believe. However, I am concerned by the debt. It seems strange to me to be increasing debt while simultaneously buying back shares - I understand the argument that borrowing is so cheap that it makes sense to leverage up (it may be even cheaper than servicing those pesky shareholders), but to do that beyond a certain level is just increasing risk. You can stop paying a divi to shareholders, but you can never stop servicing that debt! I will keep on watching this share, but right now it just feels a tad uncomfortable. Good luck all.
There's a ton of work that's going to be needed over the next decade, a lot of it related to infrastructure renewal, flood defences, 5g, population growth, urbanisation, and green energy installation. AHT should benefit handsomely, with the proviso that the UK offers a grim picture of what a mature rental market can look like, ie far too many competitors and no one making any money. AHT and URI are to some extent in control of the North American market, hopefully they can see their way to gently growing market share while not competing against each other too hard!
I think the $1.4 trillion Federal package that includes the Trump wall should boost AHT to overcome the exchange rate.
Stone
IMHO now is good buying opportunity. Just wait for when the NY market opens as they will appreciate the performance in America and Canada.
Sp fell so bought some more all good here imv.
possible with these results , although there is some caution in the statement about the strengthening pound.
New high reached today following URI's 26% increase over the last month and further 2.7% so far today.
I'd guess this share's value as a brexit haven has been diminished lately. And the £stg is up.
Might be worth a punt(!) if the DUP still have teeth.
Why the big fall? Ashtead is a good company but cyclical. 28th September last year they hit 2461 but by Christmas they had fallen to 1586. Also as they make about 95% of their profits in America they tend to follow their competitors there. So at the moment its mainly about Trump and his trade wars, the possibility of a global recession and Brexit. I watch the movements of the likes uf URI and H&E. URI have third quarter results on 17th October.
Been tracking this for ages and finally have enough cash to invest in it. Also recommended by the Mail or Telegraph last weekend. Why the big fall?, So far continuing into today. Results and forecast look decent so ??
Big fall in share price today following URI's fall of 4.07% yesterday and premarket fall of 1.67% today. I sold some at 2350 last month and may buy back in shortly. I'll see how today goes.
Little story here about CEO change at A-Plant in July. Obviously they are not happy in Charlottesville, SC!
https://vertikal.net/en/news/story/33575/change-at-the-top-for-a-plant
Should Labour find its way into government then the underperforming A Plant will become nothing but a liability, as might a London listing.
The one thing in the full year results 30 April 2019 that raised my eyebrows was a comparison between market share in the USA in 2010 and 2019.
In 2010 United Rentals had 5% of the market, Sunbelt had 4%. In 2019 United Rentals has 14% and Sunbelt 9%.
So despite sterling accounts from Ashtead, in fact their major competitor seems to be doing rather better, at least in terms of market share.
I haven't looked into the nitty-gritty of their accounts, as I have just done with Ashtead. Perhaps if I did I would find that they are stretching themselves too thin.
Whatever the case, Ashtead are doing very well, and everything seems strong and secure. I wonder if the brokers' forecast of £28.00 will happen anytime soon, though. May have to continue waiting for some time yet.
LM
Yes, that article in the Telegraph (June 18, 2019) was encouraging.
As a long-term shareholder I particularly liked this:
"Business in the US was buoyed by a booming construction sector and a structural shift towards renting rather than owning equipment."
LM
I note that, according to the Telegraph and under pressure from the City, Ashtead is scrapping pensions worth upto 40% of bosses' salaries and capping them at 15% for future executive directors.
Good on Brendan Horgan, leading the way.
Yes, I did include interest. However what I overlooked is that debt in the year 2018-19 increased by £1032.9bn, which means that about 220p per share of the discretionary spending was financed with borrowings. Obviously they can't grow debt by £1bn per year for ever, so that 220p has to be excluded from the sums. Discretionary spend not financed by debt was £1275.4bn or 274p per share, so if growth capex halves after 2021 from 348p per share to 174p that leaves 200p for shareholders (ignoring growth and effect of buybacks).
1.2.X.U.
Are you taking the interest on the debt into account?
I see that Trump's wall is back on the cards as the US Supreme Court has said that he can use£2bn of Pentagon funds for a section of wall on the southern border.
Some more musings on where shareholder returns might be after 2021
From the current report discretionary spending looks like this:
Growth capex £1030.6m
Acquisitions £591.3m
Total growth expenditure £1621.9m
With 466m shares that gives growth expenditure per share of £3.48
Then we have current dividend per share of 40p and planned buybacks for 2019/20 of £500m, which is £1.07 per share. So that's £1.47 per share on shareholder returns.
When the 2021 plan completes, let's assume that AHT enter an indefinite period of gradual growth. (By 2021 AHT and URI between them could be servicing about half the north American rental market.)
So if growth capex of £3.48 is halved after 2021, that releases £1.74 per share for shareholder returns giving a total of £1.47 + £1.74 = £3.21 per share.
£3.21 is a 15% return against current SP, so you'd expect the SP by 2021 to rerate upwards to reflect the improved returns.
Also note that the current level of growth spending is intended to deliver low teens annual revenue growth, so sustained over 2 years that might give a 20% increase in earnings per share.
As always with AHT, everything is subject to a supportive cycle.
There you go. If you think i'm talking a load of bobbins, please let me know!
URI results beat expectations however they trimmed their guidance for the full year. Hence the fall in the SP of 12.73% on the week and the consequent fall in the SP of Ashtead back to their results in June.
C' est la vie!
URI post finals on Wednesday 17th. Their share price rose 3.8% yesterday.
According to my calculations (possibly too grand a word for such a simple thing to discover, but still I might have made a mistake somewhere) this is the total number of shares bought so far in the share buy-back scheme.
It just HAS to make a difference to the SP... Meanwhile, let's hope that Trump and his Chinese friends have a nice time together at their forthcoming meeting, and on Monday the SP will further reflect that.
LM
So a decent set of figures, but more postitively, management still talking about a supportive market. EPS of £2 for 2020 looks eminently achievable, and I don't see why this won't be priced at 15x by year end. On this basis, a £30 year end target does not look ridiculous. Cash flow is strong as well, and sharebuybacks will continue to support the price. GLA