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PJT12 you are quite right, most boards have a Mr Rampy that throws out the £1B MCap comments.
However ...... a successful FDA approval opens the flood gates for Angle as it allows entry into the vast global hospital market.
Every Oncology department with its own labs will want / ultimately need a Parsotix system on site. The ongoing supply of the Parsortix Plates will produce yearly revenues in the 100's of millions.
In Angles case, FDA approval will over time ( 5 - 10 years ) create an MCap of many billions.
Chester.
Has anybody ever seen an AIM company that isn't going to be valued at "1-2£billion", according to the LSE BB's? ;-)
It’s worth remembering that Uk/European Biotechs don’t get the same backing as their peers in the US. Just a cultural thing it seems. Once this has FDA approval that could well be the green light for a US muscle investor such as Redmile or Mount Sinai to get on board. What I mean is that we don’t just have to sell out. As others have stated, this is just the beginning…
So by the end of 2023 you see the company only being valued at 1-2£billion?
Don't you think buyout is an option before it gets to £8, I think the big boys will already be watching very closely and monitoring everything including FDA approval, every man's got his price right? If I got £5+ a share I'd seriously consider bailing.
Thanks Researcher1 & Boonco. I’m sure your right. I might have come late to Angle but I think it’s a great company with a cracking future in store.
In the meantime I will try and accumulate on the dips.
Thompi, no one has a crystal ball and 20-20 hindsight is a wonderful thing. Give it a while and if everything goes as people think it will then 139 will look like a bargain.
Thompi, you did mess up a little with your initial buy, but TBF I was still buying up to 130, albeit small quantities, and like you I've been adding where I can on the way down. For me 125 is 'par' at the moment - witness AN persuading someone to take all his 1M shares at that price, so happy to buy until we get back there, then wait for global domination :-)
Well let’s just hope that £1.04 is the new 39p!
Good post researcher1. I rather mistimed my biggest top up at 139p having come across Angle later than most people on this board. I have also added on the way down including yesterday.
Hoping for a respite from the selling and a move back upwards and agree the ultimate reward could be very substantial. GLA
intriguing discussion/ speculation on this thread. I feel FDA was priced in at 140 (though it is worth far more in the medium term), but the raise at 116 and the AN option sale at 125 has dented enthusiasm a little, perhaps understandably. I'm hoping a couple more contracts come through before the FDA to solidify that 125 base (that AN has such ease selling into). FDA news will be heavily bought into in the US - I'm expecting an initial 150 then considerable Buy/sell jostling for a day or two, before it moves steadily up to hit £2. Hopefully that will provide a base to move to £4 by 2023 (AN's performance options) - and who knows beyond that. Sicilian Kan has the numbers - if Angle dominate the space then the SP gets eye-watering. There will also be the threat/temptation of buyouts around the £8 mark IMO. What fantastic, innovative technology to be a part of though!
I think , forget FDA approval the current SP doesn't even factor in the potential near term earnings from the lab business
Think every holder has there own plan of sorts be it lifestyle, age or whatever related .
"Myself I’m hoping that within 2 1/2 years we are made an offer akin to Don Corleone!"
I'm not remotely interested in Angle selling out. We need to start accepting risk and uncertainty and building up world leading companies, not just selling them off asap for short-term gain and someone else's much more substantial long term benefit.
At least £5 , I’m using that figure as an escape for myself .
This will get me a nice house , car , holiday and cash .
But looking at a few posts I think I’m underselling AGL or my plan .
Exact Sciences is $18bn market cap. Guardant is $11bn. Grail is going for $8bn without revenues.
Angle will be aiming to head towards those valuations. I see no reason why Angle should not be valued in the multiple billion dollars in the coming year or two. Bear in mind that every $1bn is £3.07 on the share price at the moment.
What price, seriously, do you hope for in 2 - 2 1/2 years?
@Dibs61 to answer your question form yesterday - I think very little is priced in right now. By my calculations we don't expect FDA approval before November 1st and I would expect a gradual appreciation in the share price between now and then as expectation mounts. With Approval we are talking a step change in share price to many multiples of today. Of course, Approval is far from guaranteed and similarly may be delayed again for further data if required (less likely in my view if the data package submitted ticked all the originally asked boxes - additional data can also be submitted during the review period if agreed too of course).
I think there are other potential accelerators for the share price in the nearer term too.
I have opened a position here again recently as I think the bottom is just about in at that 103p.
Ophidian
Surprised that this has not taken off like Avacta did a year or so ago. However we can be thankful for small mercies as that BB has deteriorated and is not a patch on this or one or two others I could mention. I think the noisy neighbours will arrive soon enough mind and their investments will be more than welcome :-)
Dibs great list fully agree , fda approval is the start of more than a decades hard work , risk , science , data gathering .
It is the first step towards real value and the start of numerous incomes which may take a few years to realise !
It’s the start of its Potential!
Must admit I’m amazed at how few people / investors that I know that are oblivious to Agl and our potential !
Myself I’m hoping that within 2 1/2 years we are made an offer akin to Don Corleone!
Moonparty and tomphys thanks for your replies. FWIW I don’t think FDA Approval is fully priced in here. Approval is the final step to commercialisation. The final hurdle. Things should really take off from there. Take your pick from various commercial partnerships, contracts to a full blown multi billion take over.
Dibs, approval was submitted last September when the sp was in the 50's, so there is probably an element of pricing in.
I don't think the relatively small contract announcements are massively significant, though of course very welcome, and all good recognition of the technology.
There is a good argument that AGL was undervalued in the 50's and 40's (there was a large seller offloading which depressed the share price), so how much is FDA-factoring-in and how much is return-to-true-value it is difficult to say.
My personal opinion is that the FDA approval will not be that big a deal SP wise at least initially - there will be a balance of 'sell the news' and 'buy the milestone'. Probably net positive though ?, just not sp-multiplying as some have predicted.
The true value will be on some decent contract wins or tie-ups for 10's or 100's of millions, or quite possibly an offer (even a bidding war?) for the company. FDA is a pre-requisite for both of these IMO.
But WTFDIK ?
Dibs, trinity had 220p as the target price before FDA. I think Finncap was 170p
They expect it to be more after that. We are now lower now than after the latest commercial contract was announced ,im not sure how much is already priced in right now
Serious question : assuming FDA approval is granted for Parsortix MBC how much do we think is already priced in for this approval? NOT a deramp as I say serious question. Could anybody point me to broker notes or give their own valuation? Cheers
Canute40,
Which broker gave you that excellent price?
aGL