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Indeed. GBP 2,000 straight in the pocket for nothing.
The market seems to be liking the results and I shall enjoy the 105p dividend per share payout.
I have held Admiral for that last ten years and the dividend has increased every year. The yield, including the specials has consistently been 6% or more.
If you strip out the Portal Penguin cash return dividends over the last three years were 2019-140p 2020-156.5p and 2021-187p and if you then calculate yield based on todays closing price it works out as 7.15% for the 2019 dividend,7.99% for the 2020 and 9.55% for the 2021.
In my opinion the market has over reacted to the results of Sabre and Direct line. The sp had already dropped 14% when results were announced on the 3rd March and the explanation can be found in the CFO’s review “We expect that Group profit in 2022 will be lower than 2021 and 2020” see page 8. So if profit falls back to a pre 2020 level then surely the dividend will not be anything less than 2019 dividend which gives a 7.15% yield. Plus there will be the third and final Portal Penguins dividend of 46p to be paid with the next interim in October.
I’m looking forward to the Interim results on the 10th.
At this moment in time I totally agree. I'm talking about my outlook 10+ plus.
Public transport isn't cheap travel, and not convenient for a lot of people. Far cheaper for me to jump in my SUV diesel and transport four people than pay for four extortianate train tickets.
Perhaps it's just me but I think drivers appear to be slowing down to get more MPG. Got to help claims numbers.
Sure we all have cars etc now, but the push is for more and more people to use public transport. the long term market will slowly but surely decline for insurance companies in general in my opinion.
huudi
Actually nationally its about one in thirty eight.
I suggest you have made an error.
A percentage of 33% uninsured drivers would make every insurance company in the UK operate at an unsustainable loss.
"unless people drive uninsured"
one in three drivers in Manchester ARE uninsured, probably similar in other towns/citys.
admiral has won some women's award for best welsh place to work or something. the share price should really rally now !!
sorry I forgot the ! - this was a satirical post so surprised it has received 3 recommendations
makes absolutely no difference to the share price - in fact the share price has gone down since (not surprising as these awards are a distraction as is all the pride pronoun stuff)
feminism doesnt drive share prices upwards, sorry
Disclosed short position is zero!
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B02J6398/
..see Teddy100 comment below.
The ADM shareprice is doing a SHEL...it will recover...unless folk drive uninsured. ADM ( and the others will increase insurance premiums.).
admiral has won some women's award for best welsh place to work or something. the share price should really rally now
@Bouveries: There are no declared shorts on ADM, a declaration has to be made when the limit of 0.5% of issued share capital is reached and at intervals of 0.1% above that limit. There will of course be shorts on the company but below the limit. I can guarantee you that the company is not the most shorted in the FTSE and suspect it will be in the in the lower quartile.
Thank you, I thought we had that to look forward to
From FY results: "We have already started to return £400m of the proceeds to shareholders in the form of special dividends, split equally over the interim 2021, final 2021 and interim 2022 dividends. 46 pence per share of the total final 2021 dividend (of 118 pence per share) is in respect of the Penguin sale and the final 45 pence per share will follow in October 2022."
Am I correct in thinking that there is still some divided left to pay from the comparison site sale last year? I'm sure it was split into 3 and only 2 payments have been made
Agreed. Useless unprincipled crooks with kids doing the analysis and learning tricks rather than proper analytical tools. These shares (and there are many in the UK) will either be snapped up at discounts by private equity or will recover. The markets are - sadly - rigged to an extent I don't remember since before Big Bang...
Many apologies Hawthorn. My comments were meant to be directed at Bouveries who was talking about ADM being the biggest shorted share in the footsie 100 which I'm pretty sure is incorrect .
Can't drop for ever if paying a healthy dividend. Insurance premiums will obviously rise so a great medium term investment. Really is time shorting was banned. What useful function does it fulfilling other than destroying companies and stealing shareholder value and giving it to greedy hedge funds?
So here we are
Last Thursday's news - contagion hits admiral after a smaller less well managed insurer (sabre) comes out with some news. admiral drops from 24 to 19 in a day
Friday morning - admiral starts to recover early on. then "the moses effect" as JPM releases its sell note at 10am on the dot and the shares tank down in a straight line downwards. JPM had pre notified its clients before hand to sell short. JPM sell note contains nothing new and only info from press reports of thursday
Monday morning - this time it was jefferies regurgitating thursday press stories and recommending to sell (short) (some already had of course after friday. No moses effect on friday because jefferies note came out before the market opened.
Tuesday monring - who is it going to be this time with some old news repackaged into a sell note? morgan stanley ? deutsche? who is going to seek some attention today
a bunch of crooks these brokerage houses
Simon - think you are confusing me with AN Other as I havent commented on shorting..........
That said I could see why someone might take the view that this is something to consider because (as I mentioned before) this is a market wide issue affecting all insurers to some degree or another and it is one that is not fully understood. The big question is why are these insurers now saying that it is an issue and they must take action now when it has been obvious that claims inflation has been building and growing for a long time? a shortage of cars fuelled in part by a lack of chips was always going to have a big impact on repair costs, credit hire charges, total loss claim pay outs. Sounds like the decision was to write lots more policies at what may now be premiums that are far too low and hope for the best! It will be interesting to see what Admiral come out with because they are a massive part of the motor insurance market in the UK and if Ernst & Young are talking about a ratio of around 111% its difficult to see how they can be part of that.
DYOR
Hawthorn, the short-tracker sites don't as yet support the view that ''ADM is the most shorted share in the FTSE 100'' I'm sure there are some clients doing a few short deals but as far as I can see the percentage of stock must be small, unless you can demonstrate differently. I would have thought Kingfisher was miles ahead in the shorting compared to Admiral.
Wiscos - they find the healthy divi by making the difference in the drop, in many cases itll drop slightly more than the dive......
Back to the drawing board.
Best way to deal with this (given useless regulators) is to declare a healthy dividend which the shorters will have to find!
ADM shares dropped from £24 to £19 in one day in reaction to another insurance company. I agree there is a contagion aspect that spreads to other businesses so when Sabre goes down 40% then Admiral and Direct Line will also go down because of contagion. ADM went down from 24 to 19 on Thursday.
I know for a fact that JPM advised their private clients on Friday morning to short ADM ahead of JPM putting put out a sell note on Friday morning. I have actually read that sell note, plus the Jefferies one today. In both cases so called "intelligent" analysts are simply regurgitating the news story of Thursday when the shares went down from 24 to 19 - the contagion effect.
What is despicable is both JPM (and probably Jefferies) deliberately deramping this company. Im told by people im having dinner with tomorrow night that ADM is the most shorted share in the FTSE 100.
Im beginning to sound like some bitter and twisted disgruntled person but i am none of these. i play by the rules in a way that JPM and their clients dont.