Q3 Treading Statement31 Oct 2023 09:24
I dialled into the post statement call from Andrew Heath and Derik Harding.
All looks good here. Sales growth is slowing as the order intake returns towards "normal" after the pandemic. Margins, though, are up and they are happy to say that they will be in the top half of the forecast operating profits (£250m to £265m) for the current year. I have raised my eps figure for this year to just under 200p and was pleased to hear that cash conversion continues strong (? +110%). The two were rather confident about 2024 and made it clear that the inclusion of the words "Looking further ahead to 2024, we expect another year of progress, including further margin expansion" was deliberate.
Nothing to worry about here; with Book to Bill at 0.97 they are already producing for FY2024. The question is what rating will the market put on a share like this. They have fallen consistently for three months but with a prospective p/e nearing single figures and prospective yield nearing 3% they look good value to me. The share buy-back will be completed by this year end so support from this source ends then but they have been putting money into small bolt on acquisitions which hopefully add more value that buy-backs.